0–1膨胀几何分布的客观贝叶斯分析

在医疗卫生、金融证券等应用领域，经常会同时出现零观测值、一观测值较多的情况. 为更好地拟合这类数据，提出0–1膨胀几何分布模型并进行客观贝叶斯分析. 通过参数变换，得到Jeffreys先验和reference先验. 设计后验分布的抽样算法，设置不同的样本量和参数真值，采用数值模拟方法对不同客观先验下的估计效果进行评估.     

0?1膨胀负二项回归模型在COVID?19疫情分析中的应用

在公共卫生等应用领域，经常会同时出现零观测值、一观测值较多的情况. 为更好地拟合这类数据，采用0?1膨胀负二项分布及其回归模型进行分析. 在数据扩充基础上，结合Pólya?Gamma潜变量对模型参数进行贝叶斯推断. 最后，对我国湖北省2019冠状病毒病(COVID?19)死亡数据集进行分析. 研究表明，0?1膨胀负二项回归模型能够达到更好的拟合效果.     

A design of a robust discrete-time controller

In this paper, we proposed a robust discrete-time controller. This control system, which is derived from the idea of the normalized plant, does not include plant parameters. Thus, we obtain a control system independent of plant parameters and that has the same structure as a conventional optimal servo control system. Simulation and experimental results show that the proposed method is fairly robust to plant parameter variations and external disturbances.     

Salt-water up-coning during extraction of fresh water from a tropical island

Rainwater can collect in a lens-shaped region within the rock of a tropical island, and may be separated from the underlying salt water by a sharp interface. This paper presents a nonlinear theory for determining the shape of this interface. The island is assumed to be saturated with rain, and provision is made for the outflow of rain-water through the sides of the island. The effect of a bore well on the shape of the interface is investigated, and the problem is solved using a spectral method. An integral-equation method is also presented for the case when the island has infinite width.     

Flow due to a sink near a vertical wall, in infinitely deep fluid

Flow caused by a point sink in an otherwise stagnant fluid is studied using numerical methods based on integral-equation techniques and an asymptotic solution for small Froude number. There is a vertical wall present on a plane close to the sink, so that the flow is fully three dimensional. The fluid is of infinite depth, but a free-surface bounds it above. Steady solutions are presented for various Froude numbers and distances of the source from the wall. It is shown that the numerical results and asymptotic formula are in good agreement for small Froude numbers, but the results suggest that the non-linear solution ultimately forms some limiting structure at sufficiently large Froude number.     

Forecasting total natural-gas consumption in Spain by using the stochastic Gompertz innovation diffusion model

The principal objective of the present study is to examine the possibilities of using a Gompertz-type innovation diffusion process as a stochastic growth model of natural-gas consumption in Spain, and to compare our results with those obtained, on the one hand, by stochastic logistic innovation modelling and, on the other, by using a stochastic lognormal growth model based on a non-innovation diffusion process. Such a comparison is carried out taking into account the macroeconomic characteristics and natural-gas consumption patterns in Spain, both of which reflect the current expansive situation characterizing the Spanish economy. From the technical standpoint a contribution is also made to the theory of the stochastic Gompertz Innovation diffusion process (SGIDP), as applied to the case in question.     

Unsteady free surface flow induced by a line sink in a fluid of finite depth

The unsteady withdrawal of fluid from a reservoir of finite depth with a free surface through a line sink is considered. A numerical method is used to investigate the evolution of a free surface in several different geometric and initial configurations, and it is shown that there are some critical flow parameters at which the flow changes its nature. The existence of steady states is also considered. Results both with and without surface tension are included and placed in context with previous work. Inclusion of surface tension reveals that solutions either evolve to a steady state or drawdown. As the sink is moved off the base, the behaviour becomes consistent with flows in a fluid of infinite depth, and consequently flows can be classified as either “shallow” or “deep” depending on their drawdown behaviour.     

Fluid flow and heat transfer in an optical fiber coating process

The optical fiber coating process, using a die and applicator system, was numerically simulated. The coupled partial differential equations, governing the fluid flow and heat transfer, were solved on a transformed, non-uniform, staggered grid. A finite volume method, with conjugate heat transfer, boundary-fitted grid, and variable transport properties, was employed. The pressure was calculated using a SIMPLE-based algorithm. An isothermal case was first modeled, where the effect of the Reynolds number (Re) was studied for different geometries. Different coating fluids were considered. A conjugate boundary condition was employed at the fiber–fluid interface for the non-isothermal flow. A free surface boundary condition was used at the fiber entry into the coating fluid. The meniscus was prescribed on the basis of prior experimental work. Regardless of fiber speed, a circulating flow was observed in the applicator. High shear rates at the dynamic contact point suggest that air can be entrained with a fast moving fiber. It was also found that pressures at the coating fluid inlet did not play a major role, for typical fiber speeds, whereas the thermal conditions that affect the properties of the fluid, such as viscosity, made a significant impact on both the flow and the thermal field. This work could be used to determine the parameters that are critical for improving the quality of the coating, particularly its uniformity, and the production rate.     

A comparable study of image approximations to the reaction field

The recently developed high-order accurate multiple image approximation to the reaction field for a charge inside a dielectric sphere [J. Comput. Phys. 223 (2007) 846-864] is compared favorably to other commonly employed reaction field schemes. These methods are of particular interest because they are useful in the study of biological macromolecules by the Monte Carlo and Molecular Dynamics methods.