PMU based voltage security assessment of power systems exploiting principal component analysis and decision trees

The need for feature selection and dimension reduction is felt as a fundamental step in security assessment of large power systems in which the number of features representing the state of power grids dramatically increases. These large amounts of attributes are not proper to be used for computational intelligence (CI) techniques as inputs, because it may lead to a time consuming procedure with insufficient results and they are not suitable for on-line purposes and updates.This paper proposes a combined method for an online voltage security assessment in which the dimension of the token data from phasor measurement units (PMUs) is reduced by principal component analysis (PCA). Then, the features with different stability indices are put into several categories and feature selection is done by correlation analysis in each category. These selected features are then given to decision trees (DTs) for classification and security assessment of power systems.The method is applied to 39-bus test system and a part of Iran power grid. It is seen from the results that the DTs with reduced data have simpler splitting rules, better performance in saving time, reasonable DT error and they are more suitable for constant updates.     

An interpretative structural modeling based network reconfiguration strategy for power systems

The network reconfiguration is an important stage of restoring a power system after a complete blackout or a local outage. Reasonable planning of the network reconfiguration procedure is essential for rapidly restoring the power system concerned. An approach for evaluating the importance of a line is first proposed based on the line contraction concept. Then, the interpretative structural modeling (ISM) is employed to analyze the relationship among the factors having impacts on the network reconfiguration. The security and speediness of restoring generating units are considered with priority, and a method is next proposed to select the generating unit to be restored by maximizing the restoration benefit with both the generation capacity of the restored generating unit and the importance of the line in the restoration path considered. Both the start-up sequence of generating units and the related restoration paths are optimized together in the proposed method, and in this way the shortcomings of separately solving these two issues in the existing methods are avoided. Finally, the New England 10-unit 39-bus power system and the Guangdong power system in South China are employed to demonstrate the basic features of the proposed method.     

Enabling supercapacitors to compete for ancillary services: An important step towards 100 % renewable energy

While wind and solar generation has increased dramatically over the past decade, there has been a much larger increase in gas generation (eia, 2019). This is driven in part by low gas prices but also in part by how electricity markets are organized. The intermittent nature of wind and solar generation increases the need for more flexible and reliable generation; a role gas plants fill well. However, current market structures and rules unfairly tip the balance in their favor compared to energy storage systems. They have created market barriers restrictive enough to prevent market participation of a technology key to a 100 % renewable grid: supercapacitors. Adjusting markets to remove the market barriers to supercapacitor and other energy storage systems will allow for increased renewable penetration while simultaneously improving grid performance and reducing costs.     

能源互联网技术成熟度等级评估

能源互联网是实现未来可持续发展的重要建设内容之一。构建能源互联网需要众多关键技术的支撑,而技术处于不断地进化过程中,了解技术发展的现实水平,把握技术的未来需求,可以指导正确的发展路线和科学的战略决策的制定。本文旨在评估能源互联网关键技术成熟度。基于文献计量方法评估理念建立具有系统性和普适性的综合评估指标体系,并引入数据分析方法和变异系数法构建技术成熟度综合评估方法,为能源互联网的建设提供科学的指导。对能源互联网的云大物移创新应用关键技术进行算例分析,结果表明该方法能准确地判断技术的成熟度,定位技术性能。     

基于强化学习的电力市场信息披露程度对市场成员交易行为影响研究

基于信息披露的主体框架，分析披露体系中具体的供需信息对于市场成员的引导作用。建立日前市场的双层竞价优化模型，采用强化学习的方法，通过市场中有无关键供求信息披露对于发电商报价预期的影响，推演模拟不同信息披露程度下发电商报价行为，然后从策略演化过程、策略偏离度以及策略收敛速度3个角度进行信息披露程度对市场成员交易行为影响的定量分析，验证市场供需信息的发布程度对于市场成员的引导作用，最后基于推演结果进行总结，并对我国信息披露的建设提出建议与思考。     

智能变电站设备管控大数据分析系统研究

结合数据挖掘、大数据技术在电力系统中的应用现状，分析和设计了一种智能变电站设备管控大数据分析系统。对变电站设备运行状态的大数据特征及基本框架进行了分析，并重点阐述了变电站设备运行状态大数据分析系统的数据集成与预处理、数据存储与处理、设备状态评估模型以及数据可视化展示。实验结果表明，所设计的大数据分析系统能够大幅度提升变电站设备数据分析智能化水平，为变电站管控稳定运行提供更加有效和实用性的技术支撑。     

水文序列相依变异识别的RIC定阶准则——以自回归模型为例

水文过程相依性是水文变异的主要表现形式之一,应用自回归模型对其进行拟合时合理确定模型阶数是一个难点问题。本文在分析AIC和BIC准则的基础上,提出了一种以原序列与其相依成分的相关系数作为拟合度指标,同时借用信息熵形式的函数式,作为模型不确定性度量指标的自回归模型定阶准则(简称RIC准则)。以AR(1)、AR(2)、AR(3)和AR(4)模型为例进行统计试验,将不同序列长度下该准则的定阶准确率与其他定阶准则进行比较,试验结果表明,RIC准则对于上述模型均具有较好的适应性,且定阶准确率远高于AIC准则,其中对于前三阶模型RIC准则优于BIC准则,但四阶模型略低于BIC准则。RIC准则的优势是可以同时满足模型定阶、相依程度分级与模型检验的需求,将其应用于实测水文序列分析,结果显示,该准则能较准确地识别自回归模型的阶数,且符合提出的"相依有变异而残差无变异的最小阶数"的检验标准。     

基于降噪时序深度学习网络的风电功率短期预测方法

利用风电场历史功率数据预测未来一段时间内的风功率,对保障电网安全稳定运行具有重要的意义。本文提出一种基于奇异谱分析SSA(singular spectrum analysis)和长短时记忆LSTM(long-short term memory net⁃work)网络的时序特征预测框架用于短期风功率的预测。首先通过SSA对历史风功率原始数据进行降噪处理,然后经过数据转换之后,以LSTM网络为基础进行预测模型的训练,最后通过某风电场提供的两个风机的历史功率数据进行验证。实验结果表明,奇异谱分析对风电场的历史数据具有良好的降噪性,SSA+LSTM模型在测试数据上取得了较好的预测性能,能够有效进行短期风功率的预测。     

重力坝模型的尺寸效应

利用两个不同比尺预制缝重力坝模型的试验成果，以有限元富集技术进行非线性断裂分析，建立了极限承载力和长度比尺的确定性尺寸效应公式。混凝土重力坝的断裂尺寸效应满足指数衰减关系，用三次指数衰减公式可以准确地预测原型的极限承载力。断裂过程区的相对长度是引起模型试验尺寸效应的主要原因。数值计算结果表明，断裂过程区相对长度不仅是与材料有关的参数，能否充分发展还取决于结构尺寸和几何形状；断裂过程区相对长度的尺寸效应不同于统计尺寸效应和断裂参数尺寸效应，具有尺寸范围效应。断裂过程区相对长度在小试件、大试件和相对无穷大试件的发展程度不同。     

《电力需求侧管理》2017年选题方向

《电力需求侧管理》2017年选题方向 《电力需求侧管理》编辑部 (国家电网公司 电力需求侧管理指导中心，南京 210024) Topic directions of journal Power Demand Side Management in the year 2017 Editorial Department (State Grid Corporation DSM Instruction Center, Nanjing 210024, China) 文章编号:1009-1831(2017)01-0005-01 DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1009-1831.2017.01.003 中图分类号:F407.61 文献标志码:C (本栏责任编辑 徐文红)