新疆1949—2019年洪水灾害调查与特征分析

洪水灾害是新疆最严重的自然灾害,调查并研究洪水灾害的特征与规律对防洪减灾有重要意义。本文通过调查新疆洪水灾害相关的年鉴、公报、简报及文献资料等,统计分析了新疆1949-2019年近71年主要洪水灾害,给出了洪水灾害的时间及地域分布规律、灾害类型特征。对洪水灾害造成的直接经济损失及占国民生产总值的比例进行了统计分析,并重点对2006年以后的受灾人口与死亡人口、直接经济损失进行了分析。结果表明,虽然洪水频次与洪灾直接经济损失有增加趋势,但因灾死亡人口及直接经济损失所占GDP比重不断减少,并趋于平稳,防洪减灾效益明显。本文研究为新疆洪水灾害风险评估、防御应对与决策支持提供了借鉴参考。     

山丘区沿河村落山洪灾害受灾水位及危险区划分方法

随着山丘区小流域山洪灾害防御工作的精准化推进,山丘区河道沿岸局部重点区域(村落、集镇)已经成为山洪灾害重点关注对象。针对沿河村落开展暴雨洪水分析,定位村落内防洪能力最薄弱的居民户,计算受灾水位,分析不同频率洪水水面线下的淹没人口,绘制山洪灾害危险区是山洪灾害防御、预警工作的核心和难点之一。针对目前受灾水位和危险区划分存在的问题,根据现场调查和测量资料,综合设计暴雨洪水计算、水位-流量关系计算、点投影、点线关系判断等方法,提出了一种可行的受灾水位计算、受灾人口判定和危险区绘制方法。采用Matlab编程批量计算,以济南市小李庄村为例进行了应用实践。结果表明,该方法可准确定位防洪能力最薄弱的居民户,计算沿河村落受灾水位,判定居民户与不同频率洪水水面线的关系,从而较为精确地绘制山洪灾害危险区。     

Support principles of NPR bolt/cable and control techniques of large-deformation disasters

Deep mining has been paid much more attention because of the depletion of shallow mining resources.Traditional bolts could be invalid to accommodate large displacement and deformation in geomaterials.Consequently, alternative support and reinforcement bolts need to be studied and their constitutive models also need to be developed to help understanding for the complex stress-strain responses of rock masses under loadings. The effect of Negative Poisson's Ratio(NPR) that is attributed to the swelling phenomenon along the lateral direction may appear in metal materials under tensional loadings. Thence NPR materials often have an advantage over NPR ones in mechanical behavior such as impact resistance, antishearing, and energy absorbed. From the characteristics of NPR materials, a series of bolt and cable supports with the effect of NPR and constant-resistance have been recently developed. We here firstly introduce the structural features of NPR support. Then the constitutive model of NPR support is presented and its corresponding equation of energy equilibrium. Its basic principle interacted on rock masses is further discussed. Finally, NPR cables are employed to support the slope of an open-pit mine. The applications show that NPR cables can ease failure within the slope and play an important role in predicting and providing early warning of slope failure, together with a monitoring system of slope stability.     

广西德保岩溶内涝灾害风险评价

利用基于Arc GIS技术和层次分析法的灾害风险评价模型对广西德保县岩溶内涝灾害进行风险评价,以期为防治岩溶内涝灾害提供科学依据。综合比较德保县降雨条件、社会经济与自然环境等因素,利用层次分析法确定各因子权重,然后利用Arc GIS技术得到德保县岩溶内涝灾害危险性、易损性和风险区划图。风险评价结果表明:广西德保县岩溶内涝高风险区主要集中在人口密集的城关镇,较高风险区主要分布在耕地面积分布较广的北部地区,而东部及西部地区的内涝灾害风险较低。     

散粒体的自组织临界性分析

基于二维模拟实验,研究竖向荷载下散粒体中的自组织临界性,揭示细观拱效应与宏观大崩塌的变化规律,以及拱效应与材料性质的关系.散粒体中每个小自组织的临界发展过程包括自组织搭拱、拱随遇平衡和拱崩塌的动力学演化.散粒体大坍塌是众多小自组织临界发生后的力学性质由量变到质变的过程.用随机理论细观探讨一个预期失败模式的理论模型,为研究散体材料结构自组织临界性系统的可预测性及灾害预测预报提供了科学依据.     

Areas vulnerable to natural disasters and damage estimation of infrastructure in Busan,Korea

Since the damages caused by disasters associated with climate anomalies and the diversification of the social structure increase every year, an efficient management system associated with a damage assessment of the areas vulnerable to disasters is demanded to prevent or mitigate the damages to infrastructure. The areas vulnerable to disasters in Busan, located at southeastern part of Korea, were estimated based on historical records of damages and a risk assessment of the infrastructure was performed to provide fundamental information prior to the establishment of the real-time monitoring system for infrastructure and establish disaster management system. The results are illustrated by using geographical information system（GIS） and provide the importance of the roadmap for comprehensive and specific strategy to manage natural disasters.     

在建桥梁火灾后结构损伤鉴定及修复简

借鉴建筑结构火灾损伤评估的研究成果,根据钢筋混凝土桥梁自身特点,综合运用一些常用的检测手段,提出了一套合理的混凝土桥梁火灾损伤鉴定和修复的方法,以某在建悬索桥为例,详细阐述了该方法在混凝土桥梁火灾损伤鉴定和修复中的应用.     

一种基于安全控制的异地灾备系统设计与实现*

设计并实现了一种将实时镜像存储、系统恢复和系统监控集于一体的异地容灾系统.该系统将本地截获的写操作缓存在本地控制中心上,然后发送到远程进行重放完成异地备份.该系统通过访问控制机制解决了在传统灾难备份系统中访问控制薄弱的问题;通过差错控制保证了镜像数据的可靠性;通过密钥管理机制保证了灾备系统自身的安全.     

岩土工程监测在地质灾害评价预测中的应用

岩土工程监测技术快速发展,呈现出一些新的理论和方法,并在具体的监测仪器和实际的监测工作中得到应用。在不断的实践中逐渐形成了岩土工程监测系统建立的原则,以及基础地质信息采集与分析的方式方法和现场量测信息的分析。文章以这一领域的发展情况以及其应用为出发点,分析岩土工程信息的采集,从而对其确立的原则和规范进行探讨,并阐述地质灾害预测的关键性,同时引用客观事实,对岩土工程监测技术在特殊地质灾害中的应用过程进行评价。     

均匀动态规划方法及其在水电系统优化调度中的应用

动态规划(Dynamic Programming,DP)是求解多维多阶段复杂决策问题的有效方法,然而维数灾问题极大地限制了它的应用。为缓解这一问题,结合均匀试验设计提出均匀动态规划(Uniform Dynamic Programming,UDP)。UDP以DP为基础框架,将各阶段不同维度离散状态的组合视为多因素多水平试验,利用均匀设计表从全部状态变量中优选少数极具代表性、在可行域内均匀散布的状态变量进行计算,大幅降低各阶段状态变量集合基数。分析表明,UDP空间复杂度和时间复杂度由DP指数增长分别降至线性和平方增长,存储量和运算量显著减少,同时澜沧江梯级水电站群仿真测试结果验证了UDP的高效性和实用性。