工程项目投标报价中的风险分析

针对目前国内的招投标制度和方法,投标报价风险成为企业能否中标的最大风险,报价在招标中占的分数权重在40%~60%之间,对能否中标起到决定性的作用。从总承包商自身能力及有意识行为、总承包模式3个方面对工程项目中的投标报价风险进行了分析。     

Social dominance mediates the association of testosterone and neurobehavioral disinhibition with risk for substance use disorder.

This investigation determined the influence of testosterone and neurobehavioral disinhibition (ND) on risk for substance use disorder (SUD). Testosterone level during puberty was hypothesized to promote social dominance associated with norm-violating behavior that, in turn, predisposes individuals to use of illicit drugs and, subsequently, SUD. Using a prospective paradigm, the authors recruited 179 boys (mean age=11.62 years, SD=0.88) and followed up when participants were ages 12-14, 16, 19, and 22. Results indicated that social dominance/norm-violating behavior (SD/NVB) at age 16 mediated the association between testosterone level (ages 12-14) and SUD (age 22). In addition, SD/NVB mediated the association between ND and SUD. These findings suggest that development of SUD is influenced by androgen-dependent and neurobehavioral processes via a social motivational style characterized by SD/NVB. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Youth gambling behaviors: An examination of the role of resilience.

The study of resilient children has overturned many deficit-focused models concerning the ontogenesis of children raised in adversity. This study explored the relationship between risk and protective factors, resilience, and youth gambling behavior. More specifically, this study examined the relative contribution of various risk and protective domains in relation to problem gambling behavior and examined whether youth identified as resilient (high risk exposure- high internalized protection) were as likely as those identified as vulnerable (high risk exposure-low internalized protection) to engage in excessive gambling behavior. The sample consisted of 1,273 students ages 12 to 19. The findings demonstrated that risk and protective factors each provide a unique contribution to the prediction model of gambling problems. Resilient and vulnerable youth differed significantly in their self-reported gambling severity. As well, resilient youth were not statistically distinguishable from low-risk exposure groups in terms of their gambling severity. Findings are interpreted with respect to resilience and prevention research. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

School-Based Child-Centered Play Therapy with Hispanic Children: Outcomes and Cultural Consideration.

Hispanic children are the fastest growing segment of the population. Numerous factors place them at-risk for school success. This study examined the effects of Child-Centered Play Therapy (CCPT) compared to a curriculum-based small group intervention with 29 Hispanic children referred for school counseling due to behavior problems. Children were assigned to treatment groups by random drawing within grade levels. Treatment was provided by Hispanic bilingual counselors. Statistical analysis revealed that, according to parent report, children receiving CCPT showed statistically significant decreases in externalizing behavior problems, compared to the curriculum-based treatment group. Effect size calculations revealed that CCPT demonstrated a large treatment effect on externalizing behavior problems and a moderate treatment effect on internalizing behavior problems. Cultural considerations and recommendations for practice and future research are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

农业重组微生物生物安全研究进展

综述了近年来农业重组微生物的研究现状和进展 ,详细介绍农业重组微生物环境释放的监控方法以及对环境的冲击作用 ,对一些有关生物安全研究的热点问题进行了探讨     

基于模糊事件概率理论的水质风险率计算方法

针对水环境系统的随机不确定性和模糊不确定性，分析了影响水环境中水质风险的不完善性和模糊性因素，将水环境中水质风险作为一个模糊事件，利用模糊事件概率理论，提出了水环境水质超标的模糊随机风险率计算模型。通过引入模糊事件信息熵来评价隶属函数特征值取值的可靠程度，定量描述了隶属函数特征值与风险率的关系，进而计算出风险率。实例计算结果证明了方法的有效性。     

基于隐性故障模型和风险理论的关键线路辨识

在大规模电网中，由简单故障触发的电力系统连锁故障常常会引起大停电的灾难性后果。为了研究复杂电网连锁故障的传播机理，同时找出对连锁故障产生重要影响的关键线路，文中基于模拟连锁故障的隐性故障模型和风险理论，提出了复杂电力系统的线路故障风险评估方法，并辨识出了对系统大停电产生重要影响的一系列关键线路。模型考虑了线路过负荷保护、隐性故障、控制策略及系统运行等参数，对IEEE 118节点系统仿真结果表明，在重负荷状态运行下只对辨识出的少量关键线路加以改善，就可以使系统停电概率大幅减小，特别是大停电概率;在临界状态运行下改善少量关键线路，则可以使系统脱离临界状态，避免大停电发生。     

现役大坝泄洪能力风险率的MC分析

在水工水力学模型研究成果基础上,采用MC法对现役大坝泄洪能力风险率做进一步探讨,研究表明:(1)水力的不确定性对大坝防洪安全确实存在影响,但风险值较小;(2)国内绝大多数大中型现役坝的水力风险几近为0,设计偏于保守.由此可见,确定基于风险分析的大坝防洪安全标准和设计洪水标准,并据此来确定大坝坝顶高程,是非常必要的.     

Perceived risk for influenza in veterans with spinal cord injuries and disorders.

Objective: Guided by the extended parallel process model (EPPM), the objective was to assess control processes dominant in influenza behavior decisions. Design: Cross-sectional survey. Results: Response rate was 31% (n=968). Regarding influenza risk, 59% were in danger control. Those in fear control were more likely to report influenza infection (p=.000). In the nonvaccinated, those in fear control were more likely to indicate not knowing where to get the vaccine (p=.016) and that it was unavailable (p=.027), and those in danger control believed they did not need it (p=.023). Zero critical values were more likely to indicate that no health provider recommended the shot (p=.002). Conclusions: Most perceived efficacy to be stronger than threat related to influenza; according to the EPPM, they are aware of their risk but recognize their ability to avert it. For those in danger control, messages should focus on increasing perceptions of severity and susceptibility to positively affect behavior change. For those in fear control, messages should focus on efficacy only. With a critical value of zero, no threat is induced, and a high-threat/high-efficacy approach should be taken. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

水利工程建设项目的风险分析

水利工程建设中潜藏着众多风险，对风险进行有效分析是工程顺利建设的重要保证。水利工程风险分析是由风险识别、估算、评价、管理、控制决策等组成的科学体系。明确了水利工程中风险的定义，识别了水利工程的风险因素，论述了风险估算和评价的方法，并提出对工程风险进行管理和控制，以保证工程建设顺利进行。