天然气产业链下游市场风险评价模型探讨

随着我国天然气主干管网的逐步形成，天然气产业链下游市场正在进入快速成长阶段，建立风险预警系统的重要性开始显现，而风险评价模型是其基础工作之一。文章在天然气产业链下游区域市场风险评价指标体系的基础上，综合运用层次分析法和灰色系统理论，建立了对天然气产业链下游区域市场风险评价的模型，并以各区域市场的用气量占全国总用气量的比重为权重，建立起完整的市场风险评价模型，可为评价天然气产业链下游市场整体市场风险时参考。     

相关条件下基于N-P准则的分布式检测理论研究

本文针对并行网络、二元局部判决的情况,研究了在相关条件下基于N-P准则的分布式检测融合算法,给出了在联合概率密度已知和未知两种情况下的最优融合规则的理论推导及相应的解决方案,并在实验仿真的基础上,得到了部分有益的结论。     

上海市水环境生态安全评价

从“状态—压力—响应”指标框架体系出发,针对上海市水环境生态系统的现状特点,从时间变化和空间对比分析角度分别建立了上海市水环境生态安全评价指标体系;利用标准化和变异系数法确定各指标的标准化值和权重,采用综合指数评价法得到安全评价的综合指数值。在此基础上采用等级划分法,建立起综合指数值与生态安全评判的等级关系。各指标层的变化趋势揭示了上海市水环境生态安全的现状和发展趋势,即中心城区的水环境生态安全等级普遍低于郊区;在年际变化上,状态指标层评价值呈下降趋势,需要持续保护水环境生态系统;而压力和响应指标层评价值不断上升,保证了总体的良性发展趋势。     

Revised Estimates of Dimension and Exercise Variance Components in Assessment Center Postexercise Dimension Ratings.

The authors reanalyzed assessment center (AC) multitrait-multimethod (MTMM) matrices containing correlations among postexercise dimension ratings (PEDRs) reported by F. Lievens and J. M. Conway (2001). Unlike F. Lievens and J. M. Conway, who used a correlated dimension-correlated uniqueness model, we used a different set of confirmatory-factor-analysis-based models (1-dimension-correlated Exercise and 1-dimension-correlated uniqueness models) to estimate dimension and exercise variance components in AC PEDRs. Results of reanalyses suggest that, consistent with previous narrative reviews, exercise variance components dominate over dimension variance components after all. Implications for AC construct validity and possible redirections of research on the validity of ACs are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

浅谈县级有线电视网络的改造

就嘉善有线电视网络在适应数字电视传输时存在的问题以及今后网络的整体改造进行探讨。     

大坝安全监控指标的制定

本文论述了大坝安全监控指标的含义、制定安全监控指标的意义、制定安全监控指标的基本原则、制定大坝施工阶段和首次蓄水阶段以及运行阶段安全监控指标的方法。     

Reading Motivation: Multidimensional and Indeterminate.

The Motivations for Reading Questionnaire (MRQ) contains 54 items that are posited to tap 11 dimensions of reading motivation. The structural validity of the MRQ was investigated with 2 samples: (a) 328 students in Grades 3-5 from 2 suburban mid-Atlantic elementary schools and (b) 735 students in Grades 3-5 in 2 suburban southwestern elementary schools. With confirmatory factor analyses (CFAs), the theoretical 11-factor structure did not adequately fit the data in either sample. Subsequently, exploratory factor analyses found 8 factors for each sample with 6 factors defined by only 3 or 4 common items. However, a double CFA cross-validation found an inadequate fit for both samples. Given these results, the authors suggest that the MRQ be revised. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Taxometrics in Psychopathology Research: An Introduction to Some of the Procedures and Related Methodological Issues.

This article introduces a special section on the use of taxometrics to examine the categorical versus the dimensional structure of various forms of psychopathology. Paving the way into the special section, this introduction briefly describes 3 taxometric methods--mean above minus below a sliding cut (MAMBAC), maximum covariation (MAXCOV), and maximum eigenvalue (MAXEIG)--and discusses possible threats to statistical conclusion validity that often emerge when such techniques are applied in psychopathology research. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

川西新场气田JS_2~1气藏测井多参数评价方法

针对川西新场气田JS12气藏开展了多参数的综合评价研究,多参数包括储层参数、裂缝参数、储层分类厚度参数。首先,开展了储层参数及裂缝参数的计算,以岩心分析结果为依据,建立了孔隙度、渗透率、含水饱和度计算模型。利用铸体薄片进行了微裂缝识别,对样品的裂缝参数和测井曲线进行相关分析,建立了测井计算裂缝参数的数学模型;其次,对储层进行聚类分析,通过聚类将储层分为三类;最后,将计算的裂缝参数、储层分类中的Ⅰ类储层厚度、孔渗饱等参数进行正态化处理,拟和测试的无阻流量与这些参数建立多元回归计算模型,即综合含气指标的数学计算模型。以综合含气指标为主要依据,进行储层综合分类和评价,指出了有利的含气区域和可供挖潜井的建议。该方法在指导气藏开发中获得了良好效果。     

分析介质光波导传播特性的Cole—Hopf变换法

采用Cole-Hopf变换法，将平板光波导导模所满足的二阶常微分方程（Helmholtz方程）变换成一阶常微分方程（Riccati方程），用较简单且有效的方法分析导模的特性。给出了多层阶跃型及渐变型平板波导导模的精确解析解和数值解法及实例；给出了非线性平板波导传播特性的数值计算法及实例。