An improved iterative stochastic multi-objective acceptability analysis method for robust alternative selection in new product development

Alternative selection in new product development (NPD) is a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problem. It usually starts with incomplete, imprecise or even partially missing information. Currently, most existing methods in dealing with this problem cannot work well if required information is incomplete or missing. It is acknowledged that stochastic multi-objective acceptability analysis (SMAA) can be applied to address MCDM problem with incomplete preference information and uncertain criteria measurements. In SMAA, alternatives are evaluated based on SMAA measurements (acceptability index, central weight vector and confidence factor). The discriminability of SMAA for the optimum alternative heavily depends on differences of SMAA measurements among different alternatives. Usually, a large number of alternatives and high level of uncertainty are involved in alternative selection in NPD. In this situation, the differences among SMAA measurements are not obvious, and therefore SMAA cannot deal with such problem very well. To this end, this paper proposes an improved SMAA method called Iterative-SMAA (I-SMAA) for alternative selection in NPD. In the I-SMAA, an iterative multi-step decision-making process is suggested to improve differences of SMAA measurements among different alternatives, and thus assist decision makers (DMs) to positively discern from the most preferred alternative. To enhance the decision-making efficiency, sensitive criteria are acquired in each iteration by ranking sensitivity analysis. DMs are guided to provide partial preference information and give more accurate criteria measurements for sensitive criteria rather than all criteria. Eventually, to verify the proposed method, a numerical example of the existing literature is solved with the method, and the results are compared. And then, a practical example of a preparation equipment for coal samples is further employed to verify the practicability of the proposed I-SMAA.     

解析“限额设计”措施对建设项目投资的控制对策

经济新常态下,我国建筑行业得到快速发展。对于建筑工程来说,为节约成本,在"限额设计"思想指导下,必须开展精细化管理,从而提高项目投资的控制能力。然而,在项目建设过程中对于"限额设计"措施的利用水平并不高,不利于企业的可持续发展。因此,本文在分析"限额设计"措施的基础上,提出对建设项目投资的控制对策,希望能够对相关施工管理人员提供借鉴。     

How does a bank's involvement interplay with a firm's capacity investment? An analysis and comparison of different consortium structures

As nonrecourse project finance (rather than financing on a sovereign basis) is becoming more prevalent worldwide, financing institutions have to collaborate more closely with firms to optimize capacity‐investment and financing decisions. Under this background, this paper presents a stylized Stackelberg games model, taking into account the firm's capacity investment as well as the bank's interest rate and funding ratio decisions. Consortium structures between bank and firm are formalized into five modes based on industry practice, namely, the integrated consortium, pure shareholder funding, bank as leader, full coordination, and bank as follower. The optimality and equilibrium of each of the five modes are analytically derived, and their existence and uniqueness are demonstrated. Valuable economic insights are obtained through both modeling analysis and numerical experiments, with the main findings including the following: (i) a lack of bank financing leads to insufficient capacity investment and poor consortium performance; (ii) interest rate and funding ratio play important but different roles in the bank's risk management; (iii) the bank's proactivity in leading and coordinating the consortium is critical for the two parties’ overall performance; and (iv) if the bank is the follower, the firm's capacity decision is irrelevant to the bank's loan contract, and the consortium cannot be coordinated to the first‐best level of performance.     

Methodology for optimization of pouring variables using bottom pour for low masses of SS304 (<300 kg) in investment casting process (case study)

Bottom pour ladles with stopper rod systems are commonly used in the metal casting industry. However, stopper rod bottom-pouring systems have not yet been developed for the lower thermal masses of alloys typically used in the investment casting industry. Large thermal masses used with bottom pour systems are typically limited for ladles larger than 700 kg and to certain alloys with higher fluidity and longer solidification time like cast iron, aluminum alloys etc. In this study, bottom pour ladle designs and low thermal mass refractory systems have been developed and evaluated in production investment foundry trials with 300 kg pouring ladle. The ladles system and pouring practices used will be described along with the results from the pouring trials for SS304 that represents typical alloys used in Investment casting industries. Optimization of the variables used in an experimentation using Genetic algorithm is also explained.     

Dairy farmers with larger herd sizes adopt more precision dairy technologies

An increase in the average herd size on Australian dairy farms has also increased the labor and animal management pressure on farmers, thus potentially encouraging the adoption of precision technologies for enhanced management control. A survey was undertaken in 2015 in Australia to identify the relationship between herd size, current precision technology adoption, and perception of the future of precision technologies. Additionally, differences between farmers and service providers in relation to perception of future precision technology adoption were also investigated. Responses from 199 dairy farmers, and 102 service providers, were collected between May and August 2015 via an anonymous Internet-based questionnaire. Of the 199 dairy farmer responses, 10.4% corresponded to farms that had fewer than 150 cows, 37.7% had 151 to 300 cows, 35.5% had 301 to 500 cows; 6.0% had 501 to 700 cows, and 10.4% had more than 701 cows. The results showed that farmers with more than 500 cows adopted between 2 and 5 times more specific precision technologies, such as automatic cup removers, automatic milk plant wash systems, electronic cow identification systems and herd management software, when compared with smaller farms. Only minor differences were detected in perception of the future of precision technologies between either herd size or farmers and service providers. In particular, service providers expected a higher adoption of automatic milking and walk over weighing systems than farmers. Currently, the adoption of precision technology has mostly been of the type that reduces labor needs; however, respondents indicated that by 2025 adoption of data capturing technology for monitoring farm system parameters would be increased.     

Modeling managerial behavior in real options valuation for project-based environments

Project valuation, as a decision-making tool for initiating investments in projects, should be able to value project flexibilities and incorporate reasonable risk preferences of relevant decision makers. Real options valuation methods are the available approaches for valuing project flexibilities, whereas they have shortcomings in considering managers’ reasonable risk preferences in project decisions. Therefore, researchers have suggested approximating the perspective on risk of real options methods and practitioners in project management. This study proposes a fair real options valuation for project-based environments by a behavioral economic approach, which adopts binomial lattice method, Monte-Carlo simulation, and cumulative prospect theory. The results show that behavioral factors such as ‘risk attitude’ and ‘loss aversion’ should be accepted in project investment decisions while limited to an acceptable amount depending on the project conditions (e.g. uniqueness of decision-making scenarios). This research contributes to the project management domain by enhancing project investment decisions that include project flexibilities.     

Rural idylls and urban economies: the making of metropolitan wine regions

In our quest to understand wine industries and their location and development worldwide, much emphasis has been given to key environmental, cultural and economic factors. The concept of terroir is used widely to describe, delimit and promote favoured wine regions. In this, we see constructions of rurality that tend to render invisible important connections between wine regions and urban places. However, many if not most wine regions owe much to their urban neighbours. Cities are sources of labour, capital and customers. Indeed, many wine regions are, in effect, metropolitan wine regions that owe as much to their proximity to cities than they do to any putative environmental distinctiveness and advantages. Wineries in such places develop strategies to survive and prosper not by producing bottles of wine that are widely sold on global markets – and compete on the basis on price or global reputation – but rather because they develop strong and loyal local markets tied to urban economies and because they appeal to the rural idylls held by urban consumers. This paper explores the way urban places have been critical in the development of certain wine regions in New Zealand.     

Multicriteria decision-making using Archimedean aggregation operators in Pythagorean hesitant fuzzy environment

In multicriteria decision-making (MCDM), the existing aggregation operators are mostly based on algebraic t-conorm and t-norm. But, Archimedean t-conorms and t-norms are the generalized forms of t-conorms and t-norms which include algebraic, Einstein, Hamacher, Frank, and other types of t-conorms and t-norms. From that view point, in this paper the concepts of Archimedean t-conorm and t-norm are introduced to aggregate Pythagorean hesitant fuzzy information. Some new operational laws for Pythagorean hesitant fuzzy numbers based on Archimedean t-conorm and t-norm have been proposed. Using those operational laws, Archimedean t-conorm and t-norm-based Pythagorean hesitant fuzzy weighted averaging operator and weighted geometric operator are developed. Some of their desirable properties have also been investigated. Afterwards, these operators are applied to solve MCDM problems in Pythagorean hesitant fuzzy environment. The developed Archimedean aggregation operators are also applicable in Pythagorean fuzzy contexts also. To demonstrate the validity, practicality, and effectiveness of the proposed method, a practical problem is considered, solved, and compared with other existing method.     

Determination of drivers for investing in cryptocurrencies through a fuzzy full consistency method-Bonferroni (FUCOM-F’B) framework

Cryptocurrencies have brought many innovations and discussions to economic life. Digital assets, which are very popular by investors, are frequently used for many purposes such as store of value, exchange, and speculation. It creates a research area that intentions cryptocurrency experts prioritize in crypto investments. In this paper, therefore, the fuzzy Full Consistency Method-Bonferroni (FUCOM-F’B) model is conducted to determine the priorities of drivers for investing in cryptocurrencies. The selected twenty-three drivers are classified based on five aspects, including functionality, financial, legal infrastructure, technology, and security. Based on the findings, “strong electronic encryption” and “use of digital signature” are the most significant drivers for preferring a cryptocurrency. A validation check is performed to verify the reliability, usefulness, and stability of the proposed approach. Further, the introduced approach allows taking the ambiguities and subjectivity into account which exist in the decision-making procedure. The suggested framework can be a helpful decision support tool for regulators, policymakers, practitioners, and cryptocurrency investors.