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《Journal of dairy science》2022,105(6):5471-5492
The detection of reproductive tract disease (RTD) 3 wk postpartum is important because of its effect on subsequent reproductive outcomes. Numerous methods for the diagnosis of RTD are described, some of which are more practical and instantaneous in terms of diagnosis. Two of these methods involve identification of purulent vaginal discharge (PVD) and evidence of ultrasonographic uterine changes indicative of endometritis (UE). The objectives of our retrospective observational study were (1) to assess the association of PVD or UE score at the prebreeding examination (PBE) with the hazard of pregnancy within the subsequent breeding season; (2) to determine the test sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp) at the point of sampling of both tests using a Bayesian latent class model; and (3) to determine the effect of varying positivity thresholds on test accuracy. To achieve these objectives, we analyzed an initial data set of 5,049 PBE from 2,460 spring-calved cows in 8 herds between 2014 and 2018. Each PBE was conducted once between 25 and 86 d in milk. At each PBE, vaginal discharge was obtained with a Metricheck device (Simcro) whereas uterine contents were assessed using transrectal ultrasonography. Purulent vaginal discharge was scored on a scale of 0 to 3 depending on discharge character, and UE was scored on a scale of 0 to 4 depending on the presence and consistency of intraluminal fluid. Cows with scores of ≥2 in either test had received treatment. Fertility data were available from 4,756 PBE after data exclusion. The association between PVD or UE score at the PBE and subsequent hazard of pregnancy was analyzed using a Cox proportional hazards model. Cows with a PVD score of 2 or 3 were less likely to conceive than cows with a PVD score 0 [score 2 hazard ratio (HR) = 0.74; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.59–0.94; score 3 HR = 0.65; 95% CI: 0.51–0.84]. Cows with a UE score of 1, 2, 3, or 4 were less likely to conceive than cows with a UE score of 0 (score 1 HR = 0.82; 95% CI: 0.73–0.93; score 2 HR = 0.79; 95% CI: 0.62–1.00; score 3 HR = 0.43; 95% CI: 0.43–0.90; score 4 HR = 0.39; 95% CI: 0.26–0.58). To determine the Se and Sp of PVD or UE score for diagnosis of RTD at the time of PBE, a Bayesian latent class model was fitted on 2,460 individual cow PBE. Flat priors were used for the Se and Sp of UE, whereas informative priors were used for PVD Se (mode = 65%, 5th percentile = 45%) and Sp (mode = 90%, 5th percentile = 80%) and RTD prevalence (mode = 20%, 5th percentile = 10%). Posterior estimates (median and 95% Bayesian probability intervals; BPI) were obtained using ‘rjags' (R Studio). The optimal test thresholds (PVD and UE score ≥1) were selected by assessing the effect of different thresholds on test estimates and using a misclassification cost analysis. Based on these, median (95% BPI) Se for PVD and UE score ≥1 were 44% (29–60%) and 67% (33–100%), respectively. Median Sp for PVD and UE score ≥1 were 90% (86–93%) and 91% (86–93%), respectively. Higher scores in both tests were associated with impaired fertility, and UE scoring with a threshold of ≥1 had the highest test Se and Sp estimates although test Se was conditional on days in milk when the PBE occurred. 相似文献
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Clive Bell 《Papers in Regional Science》2022,101(2):373-397
The effects of a rural roads programme depend on labour mobility, how the programme is financed, and agglomeration economies. If financed by a rural poll tax and cross-price effects and agglomeration economies are sufficiently small, the wage will rise, with some return migration. Taxes on trade act as countervailing distortions, yielding urban households some relief. Rural-urban commuting promotes the exploitation of agglomeration economies; taxes on international trade are then inferior to a poll tax. The change in the value, at producer prices, of the rural sector's net supply vector can be a poor measure of the programme's social profitability. 相似文献
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电力线是一类形状细长、特征稀疏、随着视角的变化容易混淆在大量背景信息中的特殊障碍物,常规电力线检测识别算法得到的目标框对电力线所在位置的估计不够准确。为此,提出了一种相对角度估计方法,基于常规电力线目标检测与识别算法,并结合电力线相对角度估计,从而提高电力线的检测识别过程中所在位置的精度。相比电力线绝对角度回归的方法,提出的相对角度估计方法容易训练易收敛,计算量小,适用于实时性要求较高的应用场合。 相似文献
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诱导式卫星欺骗干扰可诱导航空器逐渐偏离预定航迹,难以被发现,因此及时有效地检测干扰是飞行安全的保障。在现有紧组合导航体制基础上,设计了一种基于误差估值累加开环校正的紧组合导航结构,并证明了其性能与传统闭环校正紧组合导航性能等效。在此结构中,将紧组合导航系统与自适应序贯概率比检测方法结合,提出了一种基于误差估值累加开环校正的诱导式欺骗检测方法,融合紧组合导航信息与其他不受欺骗影响的导航信息,构建欺骗检测统计量进行诱导式欺骗检测。仿真结果表明,开环校正结构可避免随时间累加的惯性导航系统误差所导致的组合导航滤波器发散问题,同时欺骗检测方法可进一步提高算法对“最坏”情形下微小诱导式欺骗的检测效果。 相似文献
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Khaled Al-Farhany Mohammed A. Alomari Ahmed Al-Saadi Ali Chamkha Hakan F. Öztop Wael Al-Kouz 《亚洲传热研究》2022,51(2):1691-1710
In the current work, numerical simulations are achieved to study the properties and the characteristics of fluid flow and heat transfer of (Cu–water) nanofluid under the magnetohydrodynamic effects in a horizontal rectangular canal with an open trapezoidal enclosure and an elliptical obstacle. The cavity lower wall is grooved and represents the heat source while the obstacle represents a stationary cold wall. On the other hand, the rest of the walls are considered adiabatic. The governing equations for this investigation are formulated, nondimensionalized, and then solved by Galerkin finite element approach. The numerical findings were examined across a wide range of Richardson number (0.1 ≤ Ri ≤ 10), Reynolds number (1 ≤ Re ≤ 125), Hartmann number (0 ≤ Ha ≤ 100), and volume fraction of nanofluid (0 ≤ φ ≤ 0.05). The current study's findings demonstrate that the flow strength increases inversely as the Reynolds number rises, which pushes the isotherms down to the lower part of the trapezoidal cavity. The Nuavg rises as the Ri rise, the maximum Nuavg = 10.345 at Ri = 10, Re = 50, ϕ = 0.05, and Ha = 0; however, it reduces with increasing Hartmann number. Also, it increase by increasing ϕ, at Ri = 10, the Nuavg increased by 8.44% when the volume fraction of nanofluid increased from (ϕ = 0–0.05). 相似文献
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为了提高智能化光纤复合架空线路态势感知的实时性,将人工神经网络方法应用于光纤沿线应变解调,确定了神经网络的结构。编程实现了基于洛伦兹模型的最小二乘谱拟合方法和神经网络方法,采用不同信噪比和布里渊频移的布里渊谱训练神经网络,将它们应用于某光纤复合架空线路沿线光纤应变的测量,从不同角度比较了两种方法的计算结果。计算结果表明,神经网络方法能有效获得光纤沿线的布里渊频移进而获得应变,具有与谱拟合方法相似的准确性,但应变解调时间仅约为谱拟合方法的1/20000。研究结果为提高智能光纤复合架空线路态势感知的实时性提供了参考。 相似文献
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《International Journal of Hydrogen Energy》2022,47(38):17056-17068
The study of steels which guarantee safety and reliability throughout their service life in hydrogen-rich environments has increased considerably in recent years. Their mechanical behavior in terms of hydrogen embrittlement is of utmost importance. This work aims to assess the effects of hydrogen on the tensile properties of quenched and tempered 42CrMo4 steels. Tensile tests were performed on smooth and notched specimens under different conditions: pre-charged in high pressure hydrogen gas, electrochemically pre-charged, and in-situ hydrogen charged in an acid aqueous medium. The influence of the charging methodology on the corresponding embrittlement indexes was assessed. The role of other test variables, such as the applied current density, the electrolyte composition, and the displacement rate was also studied. An important reduction of the strength was detected when notched specimens were subjected to in-situ charging. When the same tests were performed on smooth tensile specimens, the deformation results were reduced. This behavior is related to significant changes in the operative failure micromechanisms, from ductile (microvoids coalescence) in absence of hydrogen or under low hydrogen contents, to brittle (decohesion of martensite lath interfaces) under the most stringent conditions. 相似文献