Farmers' preferences for adopting on-farm concentration of raw milk: Results from a discrete choice experiment in Germany

Milk concentrates are used in the manufacturing of dairy products such as yogurt and cheese or are processed into milk powder. Processes for the nonthermal separation of water and valuable milk ingredients are becoming increasingly widespread at farm level. The technical barriers to using farm-manufactured milk concentrate in dairies are minimal, hence the suspicion that the practice of on-farm raw milk concentration is still fairly uncommon for economic reasons. This study, therefore, set out to investigate farmers' potential willingness to adopt a raw milk concentration plant. The empirical analysis was based on discrete choice experiments with 75 German dairy farmers to identify preferences and the possible adoption of on-farm raw milk concentration. The results showed that, in particular, farmers who deemed the current milk price to be insufficient viewed on-farm concentration using membrane technology as an option for diversifying their milk sales. We found no indication that adoption would be impeded by a lack of trustworthy information on milk processing technologies or capital.     

Probabilistic learning on manifolds (PLoM) with partition

The probabilistic learning on manifolds (PLoM) introduced in 2016 has solved difficult supervised problems for the “small data” limit where the number N of points in the training set is small. Many extensions have since been proposed, making it possible to deal with increasingly complex cases. However, the performance limit has been observed and explained for applications for which N is very small and for which the dimension of the diffusion-map basis is close to N. For these cases, we propose a novel extension based on the introduction of a partition in independent random vectors. We take advantage of this development to present improvements of the PLoM such as a simplified algorithm for constructing the diffusion-map basis and a new mathematical result for quantifying the concentration of the probability measure in terms of a probability upper bound. The analysis of the efficiency of this extension is presented through two applications.     

Estimates of daily oxygen consumption,carbon dioxide and methane emissions,and heat production for beef and dairy cattle using spot gas sampling

A simulation study was conducted to examine accuracy of estimating daily O₂ consumption, CO₂ and CH₄ emissions, and heat production (HP) using a spot sampling technique and to determine optimal spot sampling frequency (FQ). Data were obtained from 3 experiments where daily O₂ consumption, emissions of CO₂ and CH₄, and HP were measured using indirect calorimetry (respiration chamber or headbox system). Experiment 1 used 8 beef heifers (ad libitum feeding; gaseous exchanges measured every 30 min over 3 d in respiration chambers); Experiment 2 used 56 lactating Holstein-Friesian cows (restricted feeding; gaseous exchanges measured every 12 min over 3 d in respiration chambers); Experiment 3 used 12 lactating Jersey cows (ad libitum feeding; gaseous exchanges measured every hour for 1 d using headbox style chambers). Within experiment, averages of all measurements (FQALL) and averages of measurements selected at time points with 12, 8, 6, or 4 spot sampling FQ (i.e., sampling every 2, 3, 4, and 6 h in a 24-h cycle, respectively; FQ12, FQ8, FQ6, and FQ4, respectively) were compared. Within study a mixed model was used to compare gaseous exchanges and HP among FQALL, FQ12, FQ8, FQ6, and FQ4, and an interaction of dietary treatment by FQ was examined. A regression model was used to evaluate accuracy of spot sampling within study [i.e., FQALL (observed) vs. FQ12, FQ8, FQ6, or FQ4 (estimated)]. No interaction of diet by FQ was observed for any variables except for CH₄ production in experiment 1. No FQ effect was observed for gaseous exchanges and HP except in experiment 2 where CO₂ production was less (5,411 vs. 5,563 L/d) for FQ4 compared with FQALL, FQ12, and FQ8. A regression analysis between FQALL and each FQ within study showed that slopes and intercepts became farther from 1 and 0, respectively, for almost all variables as FQ decreased. Most variables for FQ12 and FQ8 had root mean square prediction error (RMSPE) less than 10% of the mean and concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) greater than 0.80, and RMSPE increased and CCC decreased as FQ decreased. When a regression analysis was conducted with combined data from the 3 experiments (mixed model with study as a random effect), results agreed with those from the analysis for the individual studies. Prediction errors increased and CCC decreased as FQ decreased. Generally, all the estimates from FQ12, FQ8, FQ6, and FQ4 had RMSPE less than 10% of the means and CCC greater than 0.90 except for FQ6 and FQ4 for O₂ consumption and CH₄ production. In conclusion, the spot sampling simulation with 3 indirect calorimetry experiments indicated that FQ of at least 8 samples (every 3 h in a 24-h cycle) was required to estimate daily O₂ consumption, CO₂ and CH₄ production, and HP and to detect changes in those in response to dietary treatments. This sampling FQ may be considered when using techniques that measure spot gas exchanges such as the GreenFeed and face mask systems.     

Superswelling Microneedle Arrays for Dermal Interstitial Fluid (Prote)Omics

The noninvasive sampling of dermal interstitial fluid (ISF) for the monitoring of clinical biomarkers is a greatly appealing area of research. The identification of molecular biomarkers in biological fluids has been accelerated with -omics analyses but remains limited in ISF because of its time-consuming and complex extraction process. Here, the generation of microneedle (MN) patches made of superabsorbent acrylate-based hydrogels for the rapid sampling of dermal ISF is described to explore its proteome. In depth, iterative optimization allows the identification of novel acrylate-based compositions with the required chemical, mechanical, and biocompatibility properties allowing proteomic analysis of the extracted ISF for the first time after sampling with swelling MNs. The generated MN arrays show no cytotoxic effect, successfully cross the stratum corneum, and can collect up to 6 µL of dermal ISF in 10 min in vivo. Proteomics lead to the detection of 176 clinically relevant biomarkers in the collected samples validating the use of ISF as a relevant bodily fluid for disease monitoring and diagnostic. Importantly, it is discovered that extraction fingerprint is strongly dependent on the MNs chemistry, and thus specific biomarkers could be selectively extracted by tuning the composition of the patch, making the system versatile and specific.     

A novel adaptive sampling based methodology for feasible region identification of compute intensive models using artificial neural network

Identification of feasible region of operations in multivariate processes is a problem of interest in several fields. This is particularly challenging when the process model is black-box in nature and/or is computationally expensive, as analytical solutions are not available and the number of possible model evaluations is limited. An efficient methodology is required to identify samples where the model is evaluated for developing a computationally efficient surrogate model. In this work, an artificial neural network based surrogate model is proposed which is integrated with a statistical-based approach (Jack-knifing) to estimate the variance of the surrogate model prediction. This allows implementation of an adaptive sampling approach where new samples are identified close to the feasible region boundary or in regions of high prediction uncertainty. The proposed approach performs better than a previously published kriging based method for different dimensionality case studies.     

电商平台产品共同购买网络的影响因素研究

共同购买网络的推荐系统应用越加广泛，仅基于网络内生结构变量研究其共同购买链接的经济意义已有局限，故加入网络口碑这一外生变量，进行更全面的分析。采用了社会网络方法中指数随机图模型进行建模，主要围绕产品销售量、产品入度、差评率和评论数4个方面因素，探究其对共同购买网络中共同购买链接形成的影响。结果显示，销售量、产品入度和评论数对共同购买链接形成的影响呈正比关系，而差评率则会显著地降低产品共同购买的几率。该指数随机图构建出的共同购买网络为在线电商平台管理网络口碑和推荐系统优化设计提供有益参考。     

超精密气体静压系统节流器法向随机微振动研究

以无气腔平面节流器为研究对象,对节流器流固耦合法向随机微振动进行了理论仿真和实验研究。受限于节流器厚度与气膜厚度尺寸的差异和输入初始边界条件,建立了节流器的COMSOL仿真简化模型,对节流器-气膜微流场进行双向流固耦合数值模拟。仿真结果表明,节流器的法向随机微振动幅值关于节流器中心对称,且由中心向边缘逐渐增大;微振动幅值随气体入口流速的增大而增大。实验采用纳米级激光测振仪,依次测量供气压力为0.1,0.2,…,0.5 MPa时尺寸为75 mm×50 mm×14 mm的HEXAGON双环联结型节流器多个不同位置的法向振动,实验结果表明,法向随机微振动幅值分布特性与仿真结果一致,关于节流器中心对称,且由中心向边缘逐渐增大,验证了节流器法向微振动的"跷跷板"振动形式;在0.5 MPa供气压力下,边缘振动幅值超过1 nm。对实验数据进行功率谱密度分析,结果表明不同供气压力下法向随机微振动均在9.4 kHz和10.6 kHz处产生较大功率,可认为与节流器-气膜流固耦合系统的固有频率有关。研究结果有效地揭示了节流器法向随机微振动的特性,为气体静压系统避开随机共振区、优化气体静压系统的设计提供了理论指导。     

Stochastic collocation-based nonlinear analysis of concrete bridges with uncertain parameters

This paper focuses on the stochastic response of concrete bridges considering uncertainty in bearing and abutment stiffness. A multi-span simply supported bridge with concrete girders is selected. A 3D-dimensional model is prepared, and nonlinear response history analyses are performed. For the numerical dynamic simulation, the non-sampling stochastic method based on generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) expansion is utilised. The uncertain parameters include the vertical and shear stiffness of bearings and the lateral stiffness of abutments are presented by the truncated gPC expansions. Furthermore, the system response such as base shear, acceleration, velocity and displacement in different columns is presented by gPC expansion with unknown deterministic coefficients. The stochastic Galerkin projection is employed to calculate a set of deterministic equations. A non-intrusive solution, as a set of collocation points, determines the unknown gPC coefficients of the system response and the results are compared with Monte Carlo simulations. The key advantage of spectral discretization is the combination of the mentioned method with the spatial discretization, e.g. finite element model. This study also emphasises the accuracy in results and time efficiency of the proposed non-sampling method for uncertainty quantification of stochastic systems comparing to sampling procedure (e.g. Monte Carlo simulation).     

基于CFD-DEM方法的净化器流场模拟与结构优化

针对空气净化器能耗高的问题，使用离散元方法(DEM)在吸附滤网中建立随机堆积柱形活性炭模型，采用计算流体力学(CFD)方法对空气净化器内部流场进行数值模拟，在模拟与实验验证的基础上，考察了压降最小、流场最均匀的吸附滤网结构。结果表明，空气净化器压降主要发生在轴向，活性炭吸附滤网中回流、沟流现象严重，流体阻力是其他两种滤网的3倍。边数对多边形填充孔结构吸附滤网内压降与流场均匀性无影响，当孔结构改为圆形时，压降减小约52 Pa，节能18.4%(49 W)；当孔直径由8 mm增至12 mm，压降减小约48 Pa，节能19.4%(45 W)；滤网间距对空气净化器压降无影响，圆形、小孔径的吸附滤网内流场最均匀。