基于分形理论的黄河内蒙古段河势演变特征及其与凌汛灾害关联研究

寒区河道凌汛灾害河势“弯道效应”的量化评估十分重要。基于分形理论提出河道横断面-纵剖面-平面多维度河势分形维数计算方法及其物理机制，并探讨黄河内蒙古段不同维度河势演变分形特征及其与凌汛灾害的关联关系。结果表明，黄河内蒙古段不同维度河势均具有多尺度自相似分形特征，且具有多年记忆周期的长程相关性；冰坝（严重性冰塞）发生频次与河道主槽弯曲分形维数呈正相关指数型函数关系，与河相系数、深泓点高程和河段平均底坡分形维数负相关，与水深-面积分形维数正相关，总体表明冰坝灾害更易发生于主槽偏移摆动大、蜿蜒曲折、河湾发育程度高的宽浅型弯曲河道，研究成果可为凌汛期冰塞冰坝灾害易发河段诊断及预测提供重要理论依据。     

Laboratory Studies to Determine Suitable Chemicals to Improve Oil Recovery from Garzan Oil Field

Garzan oil field is located at the south east of Turkey. It is a mature oil field and the reservoir is fractured carbonate reservoir. After producing about 1% original oil in place (OOIP) reservoir pressure started to decline. Waterflooding was started in order to support reservoir pressure and also to enhance oil production in 1960. Waterflooding improved the oil recovery but after years of flooding water breakthrough at the production wells was observed. This increased the water/oil ratio at the production wells. In order to enhance oil recovery again different techniques were investigated. Chemical enhanced oil recovery (EOR) methods are gaining attention all over the world for oil recovery. Surfactant injection is an effective way for interfacial tension (IFT) reduction and wettability reversal. In this study, 31 different types of chemicals were studied to specify the effects on oil production. This paper presents solubility of surfactants in brine, IFT and contact angle measurements, imbibition tests, and lastly core flooding experiments. Most of the chemicals were incompatible with Garzan formation water, which has high divalent ion concentration. In this case, the usage of 2-propanol as co-surfactant yielded successful results for stability of the selected chemical solutions. The results of the wettability test indicated that both tested cationic and anionic surfactants altered the wettability of the carbonate rock from oil-wet to intermediate-wet. The maximum oil recovery by imbibition test was reached when core was exposed 1-ethly ionic liquid after imbibition in formation water. Also, after core flooding test, it is concluded that considerable amount of oil can be recovered from Garzan reservoir by waterflooding alone if adverse effects of natural fractures could be eliminated.     

基于粒子群优化和支持向量机的花粉浓度预测模型

为了提高花粉浓度预报的准确率，解决现有花粉浓度预报准确率不高的问题，提出了一种基于粒子群优化（PSO）算法和支持向量机（SVM）的花粉浓度预报模型。首先，综合考虑气温、气温日较差、相对湿度、降水量、风力、日照时数等多种气象要素，选择与花粉浓度相关性较强的气象要素构成特征向量；其次，利用特征向量与花粉浓度数据建立SVM预测模型，并使用PSO算法找出最优参数；然后利用最优参数优化花粉浓度预测模型；最后，使用优化后的模型对花粉未来24 h浓度进行预测，并与未优化的SVM、多元线性回归法（MLR）、反向神经网络（BPNN）作对比。此外使用优化后的模型对某市南郊观象台和密云两个站点进行逐日花粉浓度预测。实验结果表明，相比其他预报方法，所提方法能有效提高花粉浓度未来24 h预测精度，并具有较高的泛化能力。     

Backtesting portfolio value-at-risk with estimated portfolio weights

This article theoretically and empirically analyzes backtesting portfolio value-at-risk (VaR) with estimation risk in an intrinsically multi-variate framework. It particularly takes into account the estimation of portfolio weights in forecasting portfolio VaR and its impact on backtesting. It shows that the estimation risk from estimating portfolio weights and that from estimating the multi-variate dynamic model make the existing methods in a univariate framework inapplicable. It proposes a general theory to quantify estimation risk applicable to the present problem and suggests practitioners a simple but effective way to implement valid inference to overcome the effect of estimation risk in backtesting portfolio VaR. In particular, we apply our theory to the efficient mean-variance-skewness portfolio for a multi-variate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model with multi-variate general hyperbolic distributed innovations. Some Monte Carlo simulations and an empirical application demonstrate the merits of our method.     

构皮滩水电站泄洪洞优化设计

构皮滩水电站为满足2008年12月工程提前发电的需要,结合现有泄洪洞地质情况和施工情况对泄洪洞布置进行了专题研究,结果表明利用降低进口高程为550 m的泄洪洞和坝身放空底孔联合参与后期导流,可缓解2007年导流隧洞下闸封堵后大坝在2008年汛期施工的压力,为大坝施工增加了2个月左右的工期。     

基于后验概率的伪码预测研究

卫星通信对抗是电子对抗的一个重要领域，由于卫星链路一般采用扩频技术，传统的干扰方法难以奏效。通过分析伪随机序列的伪随机性，提出了基于后验概率的伪码预测方法。该方法可以根据接收到的伪码计算其后验概率，并以此来预测随后的伪码序列。仿真结果表明，该方法对短码有较好的预测效果。最后，给出了预测方法在瞄准式干扰中的具体应用。     

灰色预测模型在油气操作成本预测中的应用

油气操作成本是油气田生产消耗的主要项目，为了有效地控制油气操作成本，必须制定准确的油气操作成本计划。而油气操作成本在我国是最近几年才提出来的，数据项比较少，给油气操作成本预测带来一定的难度。为此，文章根据灰色预测的基本原理，采用灰色系统理论进行油气操作成本预测，就可以弥补对预测所需的数据少，而且也无须剔除不可比因素，只要所建模型能满足精度要求，预测结果就可以信赖。     

油气操作成本预测方法研究

油气操作成本在油气生产中占有较大的比重，油气操作成本的高低直接影响油田开发的经济效益。为了有效地控制油田油气操作成本，根据影响油气操作的因素，将油气操作成本按其影响因素进行分类，对基本运行费和油气处理费采用回归预测的方法，通过对相关数据的收集，建立对应的数学模型进行预测，对其他各项操作成本，采用单位费用和计划工作量进行预测，最后进行汇总，得到油气操作成本，其预测结果可作为油气操作成本计划制订的依据。该方法简单、操作性强，预测效果较好，在油田可以推广使用。     

鄱阳湖区单退圩区水土资源利用的调研

通过对鄱阳湖区单退圩垸的水土资源利用、避洪农业开展的现状及存在的主要问题进行实地调研,提出了单退圩区农业产业结构调整的建议.     

辽河防洪应急工程中的加筋粉细砂筑坝技术

加筋粉细砂筑坝是一门新兴技术,通过在辽河防洪应急工程右岸李家堡段应用表明,该项技术在技术上是可行的、在经济上是合理的。本文介绍了该技术在辽河防洪应急工程右岸李家堡段的应用。