Access tunnel in the main powerhouse of Shuangjiangkou hydropower station was deep buried with high in situ stress and complex geological conditions. Microseismic monitoring technology was established to monitor microcrack evolution process inside the surrounding rock in early excavation stage. Serious falling blocks in the left spandrel of the tunnel were predicted in a timely manner by delimiting major damage areas in the tunnel. Based on comparative analysis on microseismic activity law and field failure characteristics of the access tunnel, a quantitative index was supposed between slight rockburst like falling blocks and microseismic events. Moreover, the change law of daily average apparent stress difference and b value were analyzed based on microseismic event data. In addition, a three-dimensional numerical simulation software (RFPA3D) was used to simulate the damage distribution around the tunnel, and a relationship between spatial position of tunnel damage and direction of the maximum principal stress was qualitatively analyzed. The study results showed that advance speed of the tunnel working face was an important factor affecting the state of stress redistribution in surrounding rock mass, and the change law of b values of microseismic events could be used to predict activity state inside the surrounding rock effectively, which reflected mechanical properties and stress state of surrounding rock. In particular, field falling blocks became more serious with increasing b value, and field surrounding rock was relatively stable with minor b value. A risk of surrounding rock instability was relatively high with small b values. It provided an efficient method of predicting and assessing slight rockburst like falling blocks. The study results can provide significant guidance for field construction and later construction planning.