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边坡位移的时间序列曲线存在复杂的非线性特性,传统的预测模型精度不足以满足预测要求。为此提出了基于变分模态分解的鸟群优化-核极限学习机的预测模型,并用于河北省某水泥厂的边坡位移预测。该方法首先采用VMD把边坡位移序列分解为一系列的有限带宽的子序列,再对各子序列分别采用相空间重构并用核极限学习机预测,采用鸟群算法优化相空间重构的嵌入维度和KELM中惩罚系数和核参数三个数值,以取得最优预测模型。最后将各个子序列预测值叠加,得到边坡位移的最终预测值。结果表明:和KELM、BSA-KELM、EEMD-BSA-KELM模型相比,基于VMD的BSA-KELM预测精度更高,为边坡位移的预测提供一种有效的方法。 相似文献
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Jean-Claude Malela-Majika Sandile Charles Shongwe Olatunde Adebayo Adeoti 《Quality and Reliability Engineering International》2021,37(8):3314-3322
The sensitivity of a monitoring scheme depends on many factors including the variance of the charting statistic which is very important in the computation of the control limits. This paper discusses the computation of the variance of the recently proposed hybrid homogeneously weighted moving average (HHWMA) scheme which was based on an incorrect assumption. The correct variance is used to evaluate the run-length characteristics of the HHWMA scheme. It is observed that the incorrect variance has a significant impact on the sensitivity (or performance) of the HHWMA scheme. 相似文献
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胶莱盆地在胶东半岛地质构造及造山带研究中占有重要地位,其巨厚的白垩系陆相沉积是石油系统多年的研究目标。胶莱盆地南部白垩纪的岩石地层序列较其北部更为复杂,其认识几经反复,其中尤以大盛群与王氏群和莱阳群的部分单位的关系为甚。本次工作通过详细对比其沉积层序、相互关系、古生物组合、岩石学特征及同位素年龄等因素,认为大盛群与王氏群属同一沉积层序,沉积基底相同、沉积环境相似、古生物群落时代一致,二者具有同时代、同沉积相、同岩石组合的一致性,应是一套地层,建议今后使用统一地层名称。 相似文献
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Because of heat amount is different from peripheral to central of friction welding interface, which is leaded to vary the characterizations along that interface. Current study, respectively, focused on the effect of different friction pressure on micro-structural and mechanical properties of that friction welding joint interface. Presently, these friction pressures are 110, 130, 150 and 170 MPa while kept all other conditions constant. The effects of different friction pressure on welding interface characterization were investigated by EDX, SEM, tensile, compression, impact and hardness tests. The tensile tests carried out on the standardized test piece with diameter 6 mm and 8 mm, thus, compression tests were extracted from the positions of 0°, 45° 90° with test specimen of 4 mm diameter and 6.5 mm length at weld center. Whereas, the impact test pieces were picked up in two positions, the first one is symmetrical, which it obtained to the respect of the rotation axis and the interface, on the other hand, the second one is non-symmetrical with the axis of rotation and symmetrical to the interface, for making the notch head coincide with the center of the welded joint, The obtained results showed that with reducing of friction pressure will present lack of bonding increasing from peripheral toward the welding center, which will responsible on reducing of the mechanical properties such as tensile, compression and impact strength. 相似文献
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目的研究蛋类礼盒包装结构的缓冲性能。方法以蛋类尺寸为基础,建立可发性聚乙烯(expandable polyethylene. EPE)缓冲单元结构和组合结构,进行静态仿真分析和实验验证,比较结构在形状、叠合层数、组合形式等参数变化时的载荷与位移。结果结构层数变化相同时,单元结构的极限载荷从143N增加到236 N,组合结构的极限载荷从224 N增加到476 N,均呈近线性增长。结论蛋类礼盒包装中,组合结构的承载能力优于单元结构,通过单元结构的组合,可满足不同蛋类的包装要求。 相似文献
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Number entry is a ubiquitous activity and is often performed in safety- and mission-critical procedures, such as healthcare, science, finance, aviation and in many other areas. We show that Monte Carlo methods can quickly and easily compare the reliability of different number entry systems. A surprising finding is that many common, widely used systems are defective, and induce unnecessary human error. We show that Monte Carlo methods enable designers to explore the implications of normal and unexpected operator behaviour, and to design systems to be more resilient to use error. We demonstrate novel designs with improved resilience, implying that the common problems identified and the errors they induce are avoidable. 相似文献
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Within the framework of the effective-mass approximation and the dipole approximation, considering the three-dimensional confinement of the electron and hole and the strong built-in electric field(BEF) in strained wurtzite Zn O/Mg0:25Zn0:75O quantum dots(QDs), the optical properties of ionized donor-bound excitons(D+, X)are investigated theoretically using a variational method. The computations are performed in the case of finite band offset. Numerical results indicate that the optical properties of(D+, X) complexes sensitively depend on the donor position, the QD size and the BEF. The binding energy of(D+, X) complexes is larger when the donor is located in the vicinity of the left interface of the QDs, and it decreases with increasing QD size. The oscillator strength reduces with an increase in the dot height and increases with an increase in the dot radius. Furthermore, when the QD size decreases, the absorption peak intensity shows a marked increment, and the absorption coefficient peak has a blueshift. The strong BEF causes a redshift of the absorption coefficient peak and causes the absorption peak intensity to decrease remarkably. The physical reasons for these relationships have been analyzed in depth. 相似文献