基于VMD和BSA-KELM的高陡边坡位移预测模型研究

边坡位移的时间序列曲线存在复杂的非线性特性,传统的预测模型精度不足以满足预测要求。为此提出了基于变分模态分解的鸟群优化-核极限学习机的预测模型,并用于河北省某水泥厂的边坡位移预测。该方法首先采用VMD把边坡位移序列分解为一系列的有限带宽的子序列,再对各子序列分别采用相空间重构并用核极限学习机预测,采用鸟群算法优化相空间重构的嵌入维度和KELM中惩罚系数和核参数三个数值,以取得最优预测模型。最后将各个子序列预测值叠加,得到边坡位移的最终预测值。结果表明：和KELM、BSA-KELM、EEMD-BSA-KELM模型相比,基于VMD的BSA-KELM预测精度更高,为边坡位移的预测提供一种有效的方法。     

Numerical simulation of water and heat transport in the cathode channel of a PEM fuel cell

Cathode channel of a PEM fuel cell is the critical domain for the transport of water and heat. In this study, a mathematical model of water and heat transport in the cathode channel is established by considering two-phase flow of water and air as well as the phase change between water and vapor. The transport process of the species of air is governed by the convection-diffusion equation. The VOSET (coupled volume-of-fluid and level set method) method is used to track the interface between air and water, and the phase equilibrium method of water and vapor is employed to calculate the mass transfer rate on the two-phase interface. The present model is validated against the results in the literature, then applied to investigate the characteristics of two-phase flow and heat transfer in the cathode channel. The results indicate that in the inlet section, water droplets experience three evolution stages: the growing stage, the coalescence stage and the generation stage of dispersed water drops. However, in the middle and outlet sections of the channel, there are only two stages: the growth of water droplets, and the formation of a water film. The mass transfer rate of phase change in the inlet section of the channel varies over time, exhibiting an initial increase, a decrease followed, and a stabilization finally, with the maximum and stable values of 1.78 × 10^?4 kg/s and 1.52 × 10^?4 kg/s for Part 1, respectively. In the middle and outlet sections, the mass transfer rate increase firstly and then keeps stable gradually. Furthermore, regarding the distribution of the temperature and vapor mass fraction in the channel, near the upper surface of the channel, the temperature and vapor mass fraction first change slightly (x < 0.03 m) and then rapidly decrease with fluctuations (x > 0.03 m). In the middle of the channel, the temperature and vapor mass fraction slowly decrease with fluctuation.     

Experimental study on the propagation characteristics of hydrogen/methane/air premixed flames in a narrow channel

This work is focused on the explosion characteristics of premixed gas containing different volume fractions of hydrogen in a narrow channel (1000 mm × 50 mm × 10 mm) under the circumstance of stoichiometric ratio. The ignition positions were set in the closed end and the middle of the pipeline respectively. The results showed that when the gas was ignited at the pipeline closed end, the propagating flame was tulip structure for different premixed gas. When the hydrogen volume fraction was less than 40%, the flame propagation speed increased significantly with the rise of hydrogen volume fraction, and the overpressure peak also appeared obviously in advance. However, when the volume fraction of hydrogen was more than 40%, the increase of flame propagation speed and the overpressure peak occurrence time varied slightly. Furthermore, when the ignition position was placed in the middle of the pipeline, the flame propagation speed propagating to the opening end was much faster than that propagating to the closing end, and there was no tulip shape when the flame propagates to the opening end. The flame propagating to the closed end appeared tulip shape under the influence of airflow, and high-frequency flame oscillation occurred during the propagation. This work shows that the hydrogen volume fraction and ignition position significantly affected the flame structure, flame front speed, and explosion overpressure.     

A hybrid homogeneously weighted moving average control chart for process monitoring: Discussion

The sensitivity of a monitoring scheme depends on many factors including the variance of the charting statistic which is very important in the computation of the control limits. This paper discusses the computation of the variance of the recently proposed hybrid homogeneously weighted moving average (HHWMA) $\overline{X}$ scheme which was based on an incorrect assumption. The correct variance is used to evaluate the run-length characteristics of the HHWMA $\overline{X}$ scheme. It is observed that the incorrect variance has a significant impact on the sensitivity (or performance) of the HHWMA $\overline{X}$ scheme.     

Cold and wet: Diatoms dominate the phytoplankton community during a year of anomalous weather in a Great Lakes estuary

As sentinels of climate change and other anthropogenic forces, freshwater lakes are experiencing ecosystem disruptions at every level of the food web, beginning with the phytoplankton, a highly responsive group of organisms. Most studies regarding the effects of climate change on phytoplankton focus on a potential scenario in which temperatures continuously increase and droughts intersperse heavy precipitation events. Like much of the conterminous United States in 2019, the Muskegon River watershed (Michigan, USA) experienced record-breaking rainfall accompanied by unusually cool temperatures, affording an opportunity to explore how an alternate potential climate scenario may affect phytoplankton. We conducted biweekly sampling of environmental variables and phytoplankton in Muskegon Lake, a Great Lakes Area of Concern that connects to Lake Michigan. We compared environmental variables in 2019 to the previous eight years using long-term data from the Muskegon Lake Observatory buoy, and annual monitoring excursions provided historical phytoplankton data. Under cold and wet conditions, diatoms were the single dominant division throughout the entire growth season – an unprecedented scenario in Muskegon Lake. In 10 of the 13 biweekly sampling days in 2019, diatoms comprised over 75% of the phytoplankton community in the lake by count, indicating that the spring diatom bloom persisted through the fall. Additionally, phytoplankton seasonal succession and abundance patterns typically seen in this lake were absent. In a world experiencing reduced predictability, increased variability, and regional climate anomalies, studying periods of extreme weather events may offer insight into how natural systems will be affected and respond under future climate scenarios.     

基准平面垂直断面法在爆破漏斗试验中的应用

系统阐述了基准平面垂直断面法在爆破漏斗试验中测量爆破漏斗体积的基本原理,并将隧道激光断面仪应用于金厂河矿1 750 m水平15^#采场底部切割巷道爆破漏斗试验爆破漏斗体积测量中。通过与传统体重法等计算法所得漏斗体积分析比较,结果表明基于隧道激光断面仪与3D Mine软件分析的基准平面垂直断面法实用性强、操作方便、结果直观可靠,达到试验预期目的。     

Influence of temperature on acoustic emission source location accuracy in underground structure

An acoustic emission (AE) experiment was carried out to explore the AE location accuracy influenced by temperature. A hollow hemispherical specimen was used to simulate common underground structures. In the process of heating with the flame, the pulse signal of constant frequency was stimulated as an AE source. Then AE signals received by each sensor were collected and used for comparing localization accuracy at different temperatures. Results show that location errors of AE keep the same phenomenon in the early and middle heating stages. In the later stage of heating, location errors of AE increase sharply due to the appearance of cracks. This provides some beneficial suggestions on decreasing location errors of structural cracks caused by temperature and improves the ability of underground structure disaster prevention and control.     

急性炎性疾病患者乳酸林格氏液液体动力学

目的:探索炎性疾病患者的乳酸林格氏液（Ringer's lactate,RL）液体动力学特征以及炎性生物标记物是否可以作为协变量影响RL分布和排泄。方法:本研究为前瞻性队列研究。选择40例美国麻醉医师分级（ASA）I-II级，腹腔镜下择期胆囊切除术（胆囊炎组，n=20）或者腹腔镜下急诊阑尾切除术（阑尾炎组，n=20）。所有患者麻醉诱导前开始输注RL，按15 mL/kg，35 min内输毕。采用酶联免疫（enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay,ELISA）方法测定血浆炎症（TNF-α,IL-10和CRP）或者内皮损伤生物标记物（syndecan-1,SDC-1）；利用血红蛋白（Hb）稀释-时间曲线和尿量，使用Phoenix软件，采用非线性混合效应模型分析计算RL液体动力学参数和协变量的影响。结果:与胆囊炎组相比，阑尾炎组RL从组织间隙到血浆的转运速率常数（k21）显著降低（14×10-3min-1 versus 35×10-3min-1;P=0.012）。阑尾炎组C反应蛋白（CRP）升高［中位数38.1(1.8-143.6) μg/mL versus 1.3(0.1-159.0) μg/mL;P<0.001］；与清醒状态相比，麻醉期间（输液开始后30～45 min），液体从中央室中到外周室的转运速率常数（k12）显著增加（57×10-3min-1 versus 32×10-3min-1；P<0.01）。清除速率常数（k10）降低90%（0.6×10-3min-1 versus 5.3×10-3min-1;P<0.001）。无论在清醒状态还是麻醉状态下低血压均能降低液体清除；炎症或者内膜损伤的生物标记物不能作为显著影响RL液体动力学参数的协变量。结论:阑尾炎或者胆囊炎患者术前输入液体后“炎症反应的生物标记物”不是RL的液体动力学的协变量，但是两组患者中，全身麻醉期间输入液体的清除率下降。     

Design and experimental investigation of the high efficiency 1.5 W/4.2 K pneumatic-drive G-M cryocooler

The development of a high cooling power and high efficiency 4.2 K two stage G-M cryocooler is critically important given its broad applications in low temperature superconductors, MRI, infrared detector and cryogenic electronics. A high efficiency 1.5 W/4.2 K pneumatic-drive G-M cryocooler has recently been designed and developed by ARS. The effect of expansion volume rate and operation conditions on the cooling performance has been experimentally investigated. A typical cooling performance of 1.5 W/4.2 K has been achieved, and the minimum temperature of the second stage is 2.46 K. The steady input power of the compressor at 60 Hz is 6.8 kW, while the operation speed of the rotary valve is 30 rpm. A maximum cooling power of 1.75 W/4.2 K has been obtained in test runs.     

Event-triggered variable horizon Supervisory Predictive control of hybrid power plants

The supervision of a hybrid power plant, including solar panels, a gas microturbine and a storage unit operating under varying solar power profiles is considered. The Economic Supervisory Predictive controller assigns the power references to the controlled subsystems of the hybrid cell using a financial criterion. A prediction of the renewable sources power is embedded into the supervisor. Results deteriorate when the solar power is unsteady, owing to the inaccuracy of the predictions for a long-range horizon of 10 s. The receding horizon is switched between an upper and a lower value according to the amplitude of the solar power trend. Theoretical results show the relevance of horizon switching, according to a tradeoff between performance and prediction accuracy. Experimental results, obtained in a Hardware In the Loop (HIL) framework, show the relevance of the variable horizon approach. Power amplifiers allow us to simulate virtual components, such as a gas microturbine, and to blend their powers with that of real devices (storage unit, real solar panels). In this case, fuel savings, reaching 15%, obtained under unsteady operating conditions lead to a better overall performance of the hybrid cell. The overall savings obtained in the experiments amount to 12%.