Market penetration analysis of the use of hydrogen in the road transport sector of the Madrid region,using MARKAL

Nobody can doubt today that hydrogen will, in the not-too-distant future, represent a very significant percentage of the total energy used by the transport sector. This study therefore consists of the modelling and simulation of energy consumption, by type of vehicle and fuel or energetic vector, in the road transport sector of the Madrid Region, during the period 2010–2050, using the MARKAL model. It has been necessary to complete this model by adding numerous specifications in order to determine the features of the Madrid Region, the richest Region in Spain. For the purpose of the study, three growth scenarios, based on short-term energy forecasts made by different official organizations, have been proposed for the energy consumption of the road transport sector in the Region. The results show a profound change in the current situation as there is a significant decrease in the consumption of fossil fuels and an increase in that of alternative non-fossil fuels and hydrogen. The latter, in particular, will rise from 0.1% in the year 2010, to around 50% in the year 2050, which will mean a drastic drop in the sector's CO₂ and atmospheric pollutant emissions.     

Strategies for a road transport system based on renewable resources – The case of an import-independent Sweden in 2025

When discussing how society can decrease greenhouse gas emissions, the transport sector is often seen as posing one of the most difficult problems. In addition, the transport sector faces problems related to security of supply. The aim of this paper is to present possible strategies for a road transport system based on renewable energy sources and to illustrate how such a system could be designed to avoid dependency on imports, using Sweden as an example. The demand-side strategies considered include measures for decreasing the demand for transport, as well as various technical and non-technical means of improving vehicle fuel economy. On the supply side, biofuels and synthetic fuels produced from renewable electricity are discussed. Calculations are performed to ascertain the possible impact of these measures on the future Swedish road transport sector. The results underline the importance of powerful demand-side measures and show that although biofuels can certainly contribute significantly to an import-independent road transport sector, they are far from enough even in a biomass-rich country like Sweden. Instead, according to this study, fuels based on renewable electricity will have to cover more than half of the road transport sector’s energy demand.     

Energy intensity in road freight transport of heavy goods vehicles in Spain

This paper examines the factors that have influenced the energy intensity trend of the Spanish road freight transport of heavy goods vehicles over the period 1996–2012. This article aims to contribute to a better understanding of these factors and to inform the design of measures to improve energy efficiency in road freight transport. The paper uses both annual single-period and chained multi-period multiplicative LMDI-II decomposition analysis. The results suggest that the decrease in the energy intensity of Spanish road freight in the period is explained by the change in the real energy intensity index (lower energy consumption per tonne-kilometre transported), which is partially offset by the behaviour of the structural index (greater share in freight transport of those commodities the transportation of which is more energy intensive). The change in energy intensity is analysed in more depth by quantifying the contribution of each commodity through the attribution of changes in Divisia indices.     

Estimating road transport fuel consumption in Ecuador

Road transport is one of the sectors with highest energy consumptions in the planet, with large dependence of fossil fuels, and contribution for global greenhouse gas emissions. Although, Latin America is not a high-energy consumer, its share in global consumption is expected to grow, especially in the transportation sector. This make essential for developing countries the adoption of better policies to identify the vehicle groups with largest fuel demands. The present study describes the VKT technique to disaggregate road transport energy consumption by vehicle type, applied to the road transportation system of Ecuador. It also describes the procedures performed to estimate the variables required to run the model, and some of the practical applications that be used to create public policies. Results show as the biggest fuel consumers the heavy-duty freight cargo, followed by light duty vehicles. The estimation of greenhouse gas emissions evidence that road transport released 14.3 million tons of CO₂ in 2012. When fuel consumption is compared by it costs, it can be confirmed that Ecuadorean Government covered, through subsidies, for 68% of the annual fuel costs of national road transport, demonstrating the importance of restructuring these expenditures in order to achieve an efficient road transport system.     

A perspective of the Malaysian highway energy consumption and future power supply

In this short communication, we discuss the energy consumption trends in the Malaysian road transport sector, with a special emphasis on the energy losses due to vehicle aerodynamic drag on highways. The recent trends of energy consumption in the Malaysian road transport sector are reviewed. It is evidently shown that the aerodynamic losses represented exceed 1.2 MTOE annually since 2002. A novel concept of vertical-axis wind turbine (VAWT) farms for harvesting aerodynamic energy losses on Malaysian highways is preliminarily proposed. The novel concept aims at providing a sustainable and green energy source for the lighting of the highway network in the country.     

Potential impact of transition to a low-carbon transport system in Iceland

This paper develops a system dynamics model of Iceland׳s energy sector (UniSyD_IS) that is based on the UniSyD_NZ model of New Zealand׳s energy economy. The model focuses on the energy supply sector with endogenous representation of road transport energy demand. Equilibrium interactions are performed across electricity, hydrogen, biofuels, and road transport sectors. Possible transition paths toward a low-carbon transport in Iceland are explored with implications for fuel demand, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and associated costs. The consumer sector simulates the long-term evolution of light and heavy-duty vehicles through a vehicle choice algorithm that accounts for social influences and consumer preferences. Through different scenarios, the influences of four fundamental driving factors are examined. The factors are oil price, carbon tax, fuel supply-push, and government incentives. The results show that changes in travel demand, vehicle technologies, fuel types, and efficiency improvements can support feasible transition paths to achieve sufficient reduction in GHG for both 4 °C and 2 °C climate scenarios of the Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives study. Initial investment in supply infrastructure for alternative fuels will not only mitigate GHG emissions, but also could provide long-term economic benefits through fuel cost saving for consumers and reduced fuel import costs for government.     

Oil consumption and CO2 emissions in China's road transport: current status,future trends,and policy implications

With the rapid economic growth in China, the Chinese road transport system is becoming one of the largest and most rapidly growing oil consumers in China. This paper attempts to present the current status and forecast the future trends of oil demand and CO₂ emissions from the Chinese road transport sector and to explore possible policy measures to contain the explosive growth of Chinese transport oil consumption. A bottom-up model was developed to estimate the historical oil consumption and CO₂ emissions from China's road transport sector between 1997 and 2002 and to forecast future trends in oil consumption and CO₂ emissions up to 2030. To explore the importance of policy options of containing the dramatic growth in Chinese transport oil demand, three scenarios regarding motor vehicle fuel economy improvements were designed in predicting future oil use and CO₂ emissions. We conclude that China's road transportation will gradually become the largest oil consumer in China in the next two decades but that improvements in vehicle fuel economy have potentially large oil-saving benefits. In particular, if no control measures are implemented, the annual oil demand by China's road vehicles will reach 363 million tons by 2030. On the other hand, under the low- and high-fuel economy improvement scenarios, 55 and 85 million tons of oil will be saved in 2030, respectively. The scenario analysis suggests that China needs to implement vehicle fuel economy improvement measures immediately in order to contain the dramatic growth in transport oil consumption. The imminent implementation is required because (1) China is now in a period of very rapid growth in motor vehicle sales; (2) Chinese vehicles currently in the market are relatively inefficient; and (3) the turnover of a fleet of inefficient motor vehicles will take a long time.     

水电工程施工物料配送中心三维选址的能耗优化研究

水电工程施工道路具有突出的三维空间特性,施工物料供需点高差大形成的冗长路径势必加大施工物料运输能耗。以汽车运输为研究对象,分析了高差因素对物料运输能耗和物料配送中心布置的影响,结合多元线性回归模型及现场物料需求点分布情况找出优选的主干道运输路径,建立了三维选址模型,寻找物料配送中心的最优布置点,根据载货汽车运输燃料消耗量的计算规则及系数取值分析,计算出最优配送中心下的总燃料消耗量,实现了运输能耗的最优化。     

Energy demand and emissions from road transportation vehicles in China

Rapidly growing energy demand and emissions from China's road transportation vehicles in the last two decades have raised concerns over oil security, urban air pollution and global warming. This rapid growth will be likely to continue in the next two to three decades as the vehicle ownership level in China is still very low. The current status of China's road transport sector in terms of vehicles, infrastructure, energy use and emissions is presented. Mitigation measures implemented and those that can reasonably be expected to be adopted in the near future are analysed. Recent studies exploring the future trends of road vehicle energy demand and emissions under various strategies are reviewed. Moreover, those studies which assessed various fuel/propulsion options in China from a life cycle perspective are examined to present an overview of the potential for reducing energy use and emissions. Recommendations for further developments are also made. It is concluded that comprehensive and appropriate strategies will be needed to minimise the adverse impacts of China's road vehicles on energy resources and the environment. Fortunately, China appears to be heading in this direction.     

Estimation on oil demand and oil saving potential of China's road transport sector

China is currently in the stage of industrialization and urbanization, which is characterized by rigid energy demand and rapid growth of energy consumption. Therefore, energy conservation will become a major strategy for China in a transition to low-carbon economy. China's transport industry is of high energy consumption. In 2010, oil consumption in transport industry takes up 38.2% of the country's total oil demand, of which 23.6% is taken up by road transport sector. As a result, oil saving in China's road transport sector is vital to the whole nation. The co-integration method is developed to find a long-run relationship between oil consumption and affecting factors such as GDP, road condition, labor productivity and oil price, to estimate oil demand and to predict future oil saving potential in China's transport sector under different oil-saving scenarios. Monte Carlo simulation is further used for risk analysis. Results show that under BAU condition, oil demand of China's road transport sector will reach 278.5 million ton of oil equivalents (MTOE) in 2020. Oil saving potential will be 86 MTOE and 131 MTOE under moderate oil-saving scenario and advanced oil-saving scenario, respectively. This paper provides a reference to establishing oil saving policy for China's road transport sector.     

Modelling the transport sector fuel demand for developng economies

This paper concentrates on the transport sector of six developing countries with similar common denominators, namely Turkey, Thailand, Pakistan, Morocco, Tunisia and Malaysia. By using standard econometric techniques, we analyse the evolution of oil demand for road transport in these countries in relation to independent variables such as income, population, price of gasoline and diesel etc. Unlike the treatment in the present literature on the subject, gasoline and diesel consumption are estimated separately due to the high share of diesel in the total transport sector consumption. On the basis of the estimation over the period 1970–1990, on a country by country basis, we forecast the demand for these six countries until 2010. The results of this study indicate that the transport sector will be the driving force for energy and oil demand as part of economic growth in these developing countries. Its share in the future energy market structure is expected to grow. Consequently, the (pricing) policies of oil products in this sector have a crucial role for shaping rational economic and energy strategies within the framework of rising environmental concern.     

Decomposition of CO2 emissions change from energy consumption in Brazil: Challenges and policy implications

This study evaluates the changes in CO₂ emissions from energy consumption in Brazil for the period 1970–2009. Emissions are decomposed into production and consumption activities allowing computing the full set of energy sources consumed in the country. This study aims to develop a comprehensive and updated picture of the underlying determinants of emissions change from energy consumption in Brazil along the last four decades, including for the first time the recently released data for 2009. Results demonstrate that economic activity and demographic pressure are the leading forces explaining emission increase. On the other hand, carbon intensity reductions and diversification of energy mix towards cleaner sources are the main factors contributing to emission mitigation, which are also the driving factors responsible for the observed decoupling between CO₂ emissions and economic growth after 2004. The cyclical patterns of energy intensity and economy structure are associated to both increments and mitigation on total emission change depending on the interval. The evidences demonstrate that Brazilian efforts to reduce emissions are concentrated on energy mix diversification and carbon intensity control while technology intensive alternatives like energy intensity has not demonstrated relevant progress. Residential sector displays a marginal weight in the total emission change.     

Hybrid modeling of China’s vehicle ownership and projection through 2050

As representative for emerging vehicle market, China has one of the fastest growing rates of automobile ownership in the world. The huge and increasing vehicle stock has significantly contributed to the fast growing of China’s energy demand and GHG emissions. It is an important issue to project China’s vehicle ownership, which to a large extent determines China’s oil demand and GHG emissions from road transportation sector in the future. In this study, we established a hybrid model with three sub models to simulate the growth patterns of China’s private passenger vehicles, urban public transport vehicles and economic utility vehicles. By using this model, we projected that China’s vehicle population would reach 184.8, 363.8 and 606.7 million by 2020, 2030 and 2050 respectively. The fast increase of urban private passenger vehicles is the main driving force for vehicle population growth. Population of urban private passenger vehicles would account for 70.1%, 81.1% and 86.1% of total vehicle population in 2020, 2030 and 2050 respectively. It was demonstrated by sensitivity analysis that vehicle population was quite sensitive to household income and vehicle price, implying an effective lever for regulating the growth of vehicle population.     

Analysis of changing hidden energy flow in Vietnam

The energy consumption in production process is changing especially in developing countries by substituting technology. Input–output analysis for energy flows has been developing and is one of the best solutions for investigating macroscopic exchanges of both economy and energy. Since each element in the Leontief inverse contains both direct and indirect effects of any change in final demand, to separate those direct and indirect effects, the power series expansion is available. In this work, the changes of embodied energy intensity in Vietnam from 1996 to 2000 were analyzed using the structural decomposition and its power series expansion. By illustrating the change of causal relationship between direct energy consumption and embodied energy consumption, the change of hidden energy flow, which indicates how the changing embodied energy builds up the change of direct energy consumption in every sector, can be seen. In the case study, the rice processing sector, which is one of the important food processing sectors in Vietnam, is focused. By drawing a diagrammatic map for the change of hidden energy flow, it is clarified that in the case of raising embodied energy intensity, cultivation sector and trade and repaired service sector are the main contributors, and, on the contrary, in the case of reducing embodied energy intensity, paper pulp sector is the main contributor.     

Analysis of the energy intensity evolution in the Brazilian industrial sector—1995 to 2005

This study developed a method to evaluate the evolution of energy intensity in the Brazilian industrial sector from 1995 to 2004. In order to do so, it was necessary to obtain six different measures (indicators) of the sector energy intensity. Considering the concept of energy intensity as the ratio between energy consumption and the level of economic activity, two measures were used for the energy consumption: a thermal (physical) and an economic one. For the level of economic activity, three measures were used: value of production, value of delivered goods and added value. In the Brazilian industrial sector, most of these indicators have behaved in a similar way. In a disaggregated way, energy intensity indicators show a unified direction of its evolution. However, a more elaborate study on the consumption profile of the Brazilian industrial sector and its economical activities indicates the presence of important deviations concerning the annual rate of change in energy intensity. Besides, there is no evident relation between these deviations and the composition of the different indicators of energy intensity.     

Decomposing drivers of transportation energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions for the Philippines: the case of developing countries

Global CO₂ emissions increased by 57.9% from 1990 to 2014, of which 21% is known to be from the transportation sector. In line with policy development, driving forces to energy consumption and emissions may be determined using decomposition analysis techniques. However, the detail of information required to perform such studies for the transportation sector in developing countries can be challenging. An attempt was made in this study to formulate a decomposition analysis framework considering data availability and limitation in developing countries. Furthermore, a suggestion of adjusting transport activity data using average oil price was proposed. An illustrative case study in the Philippines revealed that the most significant driver was transport activity, followed by energy intensity, and then population growth, which was both similar and contrary to all previous studies performed in developed and rapidly urbanizing countries, which pointed out to transport activity as the primary contributing force. For the Philippines, transport activity was an inhibiting force, whereas energy intensity was the primary contributing factor. The difference could be explained by the differences in mode shares and quality of life between countries. Looking at private vehicle ownership data, it is observed that growth rates are higher in the rural, than in the urban centers. Deriving from the findings, developing a comprehensive public transport plan is recommend for future growth areas, expansion and modernization of public transport services in the city, and strategic deployment of transport policies.     

A review on energy pattern and policy for transportation sector in Malaysia

Transportation has dominated global fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions have risen in an alarming rate. Gasoline and diesel consumption for road transport have a faster growing rate than other sector and the trend appeared to be rapidly moving upwards in the near future. This has caused much concern in many countries including Malaysia to improve the sustainable energy of this sector. The focus of this paper is to analyze the trends of energy pattern and emission of road transport in Malaysia. On top of that, the review of prospective policies such as fuel economy standards and fuel switching to natural gas as well as biodiesel are summarized in this study. The study found that there is an urgent need to adopt suitable energy policy to balance the energy demand and reduce emission in this sector. This study serves as a guideline for further investigation and research in order to implement and improve the transportation sector.     

Monitoring urban transport air pollution and energy demand in Rawalpindi and Islamabad using leap model

A research associated with urban transportation was carried out in Rawalpindi and Islamabad to analyze the status of emission of air pollutants and energy demands. The study included a discussion of past trends and future scenarios in order to reduce the future emissions. A simple model of passenger transport has been developed using computer based software called Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP). The LEAP model was used to estimate total energy demand and the vehicular emissions for the base year 2000 and extrapolated till 2030 for the future predictions. Transport database in Rawalpindi and Islamabad, together with fuel consumption values for the vehicle types and emission factors of NO_x, SO₂ and PM₁₀ corresponding to the actual vehicle types, formed the basis of the transport demand, energy consumption and total emission calculations. Apart from base scenario, the model was run under three alternative scenarios to study the impact of different urban transport policy initiatives that would reduce energy demand and emissions in transport sector of Rawalpindi and Islamabad. The prime objective was to arrive at an optimal transport policy, which limits the future growth of fuel consumption as well as air pollution.     

Direct energy rebound effect for road passenger transport in China: A dynamic panel quantile regression approach

The transport sector appears a main energy consumer in China and plays a significant role in energy conservation. Improving energy efficiency proves an effective way to reduce energy consumption in transport sector, whereas its effectiveness may be affected by the rebound effect. This paper proposes a dynamic panel quantile regression model to estimate the direct energy rebound effect for road passenger transport in the whole country, eastern, central and western China, respectively, based on the data of 30 provinces from 2003 to 2012. The empirical results reveal that, first of all, the direct rebound effect does exist for road passenger transport and on the whole country, the short-term and long-term direct rebound effects are 25.53% and 26.56% on average, respectively. Second, the direct rebound effect for road passenger transport in central and eastern China tends to decrease, increase and then decrease again, whereas that in western China decreases and then increases, with the increasing passenger kilometers. Finally, when implementing energy efficiency policy in road passenger transport sector, the effectiveness of energy conservation in western China proves much better than that in central China overall, while the effectiveness in central China is relatively better than that in eastern China.     

国内外能耗监测控制管理理论与实践

能耗监测是能源管理中的重要环节,国外不少国家在这方面都进行了积极的努力,制定了一些相关政策,并取得了一部分研究成果.我国于上世纪90年代初就出台了关于能耗监测的有关规定,2007年颁布的《单位GDP能耗监测体系实施方案》规定了能耗监测的主体、主要内容和指标.工业、交通运输和建筑是我国三大“耗能大户”,因此能耗监测研究和管理实践也主要集中在这三个领域.信息技术的发展为工业企业的能耗监测提供了基础平台,运用计算机信息技术对能耗实行现代化管理,成为企业实现信息化管理、降低成本的一种重要手段.道路交通约占我国交通运输业能耗的75％,因而对道路交通能耗的监测是交通运输业能耗监测的主要任务,而对机车能耗的监测是铁路运输能耗监测的主要内容之一.建筑能耗监测主要针对大型公共建筑,通过信息化手段进行信息采集及能耗监测.目前有关能耗监测的研究还处于起步阶段,尚未全面展开,能耗监测技术还不成熟,监测设备也不齐全.今后除了要继续探索能耗监测技术以外,还应重点加强对主要行业能耗监测控制管理体系的研究.