降雨特性对土质边坡失稳的影响

 通过降雨诱发土质边坡失稳的模型试验及已有研究成果来探讨降雨特性对边坡失稳的影响,并以此来选取出合适的雨量预警参数。研究结果表明：高强度降雨较易使边坡产生流滑破坏且冲蚀现象较为明显;而低雨强长历时的降雨较易使边坡深层土体的孔隙水压力增加,因此较易产生滑动型破坏且滑坡体的规模也较大;此外,降雨型滑坡存在“门槛累积雨量”。该研究成果揭示了降雨入渗对边坡稳定性的作用机制,并以此建议采用降雨强度与累积雨量作为雨量预警基准所需的参数,其中降雨强度参数可用时雨量表示,时雨量可用以衡量流滑型滑坡和泥石流灾害,而累积雨量则有助于评估滑动型滑坡的灾害。     

考虑降雨影响的非饱和土基坑边坡突变失稳分析

降雨入渗往往是非饱和土基坑边坡失稳的主要诱发因素之一,同时边坡失稳又具有突发性。基于突变理论提出了考虑降雨入渗影响的非饱和土基坑边坡稳定性分析方法。根据分析边坡稳定性的塑性极限方法的上限理论建立了边坡失稳尖点突变模型,并得出边坡突发式滑坡的特征关系式,用突变理论对非饱和土边坡稳定进行了初步研究。研究表明,基坑边坡失稳是一种突发性的破坏,外界环境的变化(如降雨入渗导致土体抗剪强度的降低)是基坑边坡发生突发性破坏的决定性因素。     

基于监测数据的马坪滑坡稳定性分析

滑坡位移变形的产生及演变,对于滑坡安全稳定性的评价至关重要。本文以德化县马坪滑坡为例,利用位移监测数据,并结时间序列模型分析滑坡体的位移变化,在此基础上结合降雨、地下水等影响因素分析对今后滑坡的稳定性进行了预测。结果表明基于位移监测数据的时间序列模型具有较高精度,对了解边坡位移的发展趋势以及研究边坡的动态稳定性是有效可行的。     

边坡滑动预测的有限元分析

滑坡发生时间的有效预测,将有助于减少滑坡灾害所造成的损失,因此,如何有效预测滑坡的发生时间是坡地地质灾害防灾减灾工作中极为重要的一环。通过非饱和土坡的算例,并结合试验槽试验的试验结果,探讨将边坡稳定分析应用于滑坡发生的时机预测可能面临的问题。结果表明:稳定分析所预测的边坡破坏时间与非饱和土的参数、初始基质吸力场的分布和非饱和土的强度准则关系密切。因此,仍需进一步研究和讨论,以期能更合理的应用稳定分析方法的结果,并作为边坡灾害预警的理论依据。     

降雨对南京方山边坡稳定性的影响分析

以方山彩蝶谷滑坡为例,研究降雨对南京方山边坡稳定性的影响。基于滑坡体的工程地质特征,确定彩蝶谷滑坡是典型的降雨型滑坡。结合南京地区实际降雨情况,选取历史降雨数据,运用二维有限元(slide)软件分析不同降雨条件对边坡稳定性的影响。彩蝶谷边坡稳定性与降雨密切相关,降雨是诱发其滑动的主要因素,降雨入渗致使坡体含水量逐渐增加,使非饱和带产生暂态饱和,暂态饱和区逐渐向下延伸,孔隙水压力不断增大,导致有效应力降低,坡体抗剪强度下降;边坡稳定性对降雨强度十分敏感,降雨强度越大,稳定性下降越快。该研究可为类似边坡工程的治理和监测预警提供参考。     

降雨诱发粉土边坡失稳的离心模型试验及雨强-历时警戒曲线的验证

中国东南沿海山地丘陵地区气候湿润,每年梅雨季和台风侵袭时都伴随有大量土质滑坡,研究降雨诱发土质滑坡的失稳模式和机理对该类滑坡预警预报及防治具有重要意义。笔者自行研制了离心机机载降雨模拟装置,在50g条件下模拟和再现了非饱和粉土边坡在不同强度降雨条件下的失稳破坏过程,揭示了降雨诱发粉土边坡的失稳模式为坡脚局部失稳—向上扩展—整体浅层滑动,滑动面深度介于1~3 m。3组试验获得了降雨强度与边坡失稳时降雨历时关系数据,与李鹤等针对东南沿海地区残积土边坡提出的雨强-历时警戒曲线（I-D曲线）最为接近,验证了该降雨量警戒曲线的有效性。对离心模型试验结果进行反分析表明：非饱和土渗流分析能有效模拟边坡降雨入渗过程,而现有极限平衡分析方法难以准确捕捉降雨诱发边坡由局部向整体发展的失稳过程。基于所揭示的失稳模式,指出了该类降雨诱发滑坡的有效防治措施主要包括坡脚加强排水和支护、坡面防渗和防护。     

小湾水电站饮水沟堆积体加固工程安全监测

根据饮水沟堆积体边坡变形特征,并采用数学模型对边坡稳定性进行了综合预测分析,及时提出边坡异常变形的预警：紧密结合开挖、降雨、排水以及加固处理等因素,对大量监测成果资料进行了分析,论证了边坡变形机理,实时分析了抢险加固效果。     

蠕滑型边坡动态稳定性系数实时监测及其位移预警判据研究

 滑坡的蠕滑位移过程本质上就是滑坡岩土体的损伤变形演化过程。因此,在系统分析蠕滑型边坡不同蠕滑变形阶段的变形演化特征与损伤破坏机制基础上,运用损伤力学基本原理,探索和揭示边坡蠕滑变形与其稳定性系数的相互内在联系,确定边坡的蠕滑位移与其坡体损伤变量及其稳定性系数的定量关系,并依此建立基于边坡蠕滑位移参数确定其动态稳定性系数的方法;同时,依据位移–时序曲线切线角速率和加速率参数变化规律,研究和确定基于安全系数的边坡稳定性位移监测预警判据 和边坡安全稳定预警时间 。最后,以典型鸡鸣寺滑坡为例,运用蠕滑型边坡动态稳定性系数与位移监测预警判据,对该滑坡的稳定性演化过程进行后验分析与评价,并同时与斋藤迪孝法预测结果进行对比,其分析评价结果与该滑坡实际稳定演化规律基本吻合,表明所提出和确定的有关位移监测预警判据参数,在蠕滑型边坡的稳定性评价与预测中具有一定的实用性和有效性。     

考虑降雨入渗的边坡稳定性分析

采用极限平衡分析法,建立了能考虑降雨入渗的饱和—非饱和边坡稳定性分析方法,对降雨条件下边坡稳定性变化规律进行了分析,计算结果表明,抗剪强度参数、边坡初始状态都对边坡稳定性具有明显影响,降雨造成的孔隙水压力变化比自重增大对边坡稳定性的影响更大.     

黄土区工程边坡锚索应力监测预警的突变模型

以西气东输管道沿线的某黄土高边坡工程为依托,进行边坡稳定性的现场监测试验,测试边坡应力变化状态。以监测数据为基础,应用突变理论方法,建立黄土边坡坡监测预警的尖点突变模型,对具体监测数据进行滑坡超前预警的应用,通过与实际监测反映的边坡状态对比分析,验证预警模型的效果,说明尖点突变预警模型反映的边坡稳定状态改变特征与监测数据反映结果的一致性。     

Clarifying the hydrological mechanisms and thresholds for rainfall-induced landslide: in situ monitoring of big data to unsaturated slope stability analysis

The development of early warning systems for landslide hazards has long been a challenge because the accuracy of such systems is limited by both the complicated underlying mechanisms of landslides and the lack of in situ data. In this study, we implemented a multivariate threshold criterion that integrates in situ monitoring data and data from unsaturated hydro-mechanical analyses as an early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides in the Wenchuan earthquake region of China. The results indicate that rainfall intensity is closely correlated with the probability of landslide occurrence. Variations in matric suction and suction stress were obtained from in situ measurements and used to quantify the soil water retention curve, which presented clear hysteresis characteristics. The impacts of rainfall infiltration on slope failure in post-earthquake landslide areas under transient rainfall conditions were quantified by hydro-mechanical modelling theories. Variations in the suction stress of unsaturated soil were used to calculate the safety factor. The influence of hydrological hysteresis processes on the slope failure mechanism was analysed. Multivariate threshold criteria that include the intensity–probability (I-P) threshold, soil moisture and matric suction based on in situ big data and unsaturated slope stability analysis benchmarks are proposed for use in an early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides.

     

Rainfall-induced unstable slope monitoring and early warning through tilt sensors

Real-time unstable slope monitoring is essential for recognition of landslide occurrence, as well as for early warning to reduce landslide-induced damages. This study investigated an unstable slope monitoring system that consists of tilt sensors aiming to establish an advanced time prediction model (TPM) for landslide early warning. The monitoring process utilized additional support devices (e.g. pipe strain gauges, water level gauges and a rain gauge) installed on a natural cut slope site. The tilt sensors could detect movements (in tilt angle) within the slope generated by heavy rains. Analysis of the recorded data revealed that the rate of movement, or tilt, was influenced by groundwater table fluctuations and antecedent rainfalls. A relationship between the tilt rate and the horizontal displacement calculated from pipe strain value has been established. Subsequently, a new classification of slope movement was proposed according to the tilt rates obtained from the deformation process of the slope. Considering the movement characteristics, two warning levels were identified such as warning and evacuation. Further, an advanced TPM was proposed in relation to realtime slope surface tilt rates. The TPM could provide efficient results at the continuous acceleration phase of the landslide occurrence. Therefore, we suggest this technique can be applied for monitoring and early warning of rainfall-induced shallow landslides.     

FRPFP模型滑坡监测预警关联规则挖掘分析——以三峡库区江津到奉节段为例

采用传统的关联规则用于岩土工程监测预警领域的知识发现,在数据庞大情形下单机机器学习实时性差,无法获得多因素综合作用的规则。由于未对前后部项进行约束,得到的关联规则冗余度高,含有大量不符因果逻辑的规则。基于此,提出一种前后部项约束关联规则并行化FRPFP (fore-part and rear-part parallel FP-growth)算法,并在大数据分布式处理平台Spark下进行实现。通过对三峡库区奉节至江津库段滑坡的孕灾因子统计分类,采用7个滑坡发育基础因子和4个滑坡诱导因子作为前部集合,滑坡前缘、中部、后缘监测点位移参数为后部集合,采集研究区25个滑坡11年监测数据。以FRPFP算法为模型架构基于关联规则的滑坡监测预警大数据系统,设计区域滑坡危险性规则挖掘、典型滑坡危险性规则挖掘、滑坡发生原因分析挖掘3个功能,用于库岸滑坡稳定性预测和分析,为认清库岸滑坡的破坏机制和提升其预报水平提供新的思路。     

降雨型滑坡预报新方法

详细研究了三峡地区部分县市的滑坡和降雨历史资料，从滑坡与降雨量、暴雨以及降雨时间3个不同角度的关系分析了降雨与降雨型滑坡的关系。在此基础上，提出了降雨因子的概念。同时，还提出了一种预报降雨型滑坡的新方法，定量化地描述了降雨型滑坡的易发程度。按照一定的标准，对每种降雨分因子进行分级，通过多因子叠合分析来研究降雨因子与降雨型滑坡之间的关系，并据此准确地预报滑坡的易发程度。通过将这种滑坡预报新方法应用于三峡的万县地区，证明了它可以比较准确地确定滑坡发生的时间。这种滑坡预报方法将为根据历史降雨和滑坡资料来预测降雨型滑坡奠定良好基础。     

Factor analysis for the statistical modeling of earthquake-induced landslides

Earthquake-induced landslides are difficult to assess and predict owing to the inherent unpredictability of earthquakes. In most existing studies, the landslide potential is statistically assessed by collecting and analyzing the data of historical landslide events and earthquake observation records. Unlike rainfall-induced landslides, earthquake-induced landslides cannot be predicted in advance using real-time monitoring systems, and the development of the models for these landslides should instead depend on early earthquake warnings and estimations. Hence, in this study, factor analysis was performed and the frequency distribution method was employed to investigate the potential risk of the landslides caused by earthquakes. Factors such as the slope gradient, lithology (geology), aspect, and elevation were selected and classified as influential factors to facilitate the construction of a landslide database for the area of study.     

Probabilistic stability analysis of Bazimen landslide with monitored rainfall data and water level fluctuations in Three Gorges Reservoir,China

Landslide is a common geological hazard in reservoir areas and may cause great damage to local residents’ life and property. It is widely accepted that rainfall and periodic variation of water level are the two main factors triggering reservoir landslides. In this study, the Bazimen landslide located in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) was back-analyzed as a case study. Based on the statistical features of the last 3-year monitored data and field instrumentations, the landslide susceptibility in an annual cycle and four representative periods was investigated via the deterministic and probabilistic analysis, respectively. The results indicate that the fluctuation of the reservoir water level plays a pivotal role in inducing slope failures, for the minimum stability coefficient occurs at the rapid decline period of water level. The probabilistic analysis results reveal that the initial sliding surface is the most important area influencing the occurrence of landslide, compared with other parts in the landslide. The seepage calculations from probabilistic analysis imply that rainfall is a relatively inferior factor affecting slope stability. This study aims to provide preliminary guidance on risk management and early warning in the TGR area.     

边坡工程分布式光纤监测技术研究

 通过对边坡及其加固工程进行实时、在线监测,可掌握边坡的变形动态,对滑坡进行预警。分布式光纤传感技术与常规监测方法相比具有很大的优越性,如分布式、长距离、实时性和长期稳定性等,可满足加固工程安全监测和滑坡早期预警的要求。对布里渊光时域反射技术(BOTDR)的测量原理和优点进行介绍,设计一套基于BOTDR的新型分布式边坡监测系统,详细阐述工程应用中传感光纤的布设方法、光纤保护和温度补偿技术等。通过将传感光纤按一定的方式布设在加固工程及坡体内,并相互连接构成基于BOTDR的边坡分布式光纤监测系统,进而实现对整个边坡的远程分布式监测。以实际工程为例,对边坡分布式变形监测结果进行分析。结果表明,基于BOTDR技术的边坡分布式光纤监测系统能够准确地反映边坡及加固工程的变形情况,具有显著的优越性,可用于边坡稳定性的监测和预报。     

三峡库区碎石土质岸坡失稳启动机制研究——以龙江红岩子滑坡为例

三峡水库蓄水后,滑坡成为三峡库区最严重的地质灾害之一,库水位下降和降雨是导致滑坡的重要因素。以龙江红岩子滑坡为例,研究三峡库区碎石土质岸坡失稳启动机制。基于FLAC^3D渗流分析模块功能和算法对三峡库区龙江红岩子滑坡的机制进行研究。根据龙江红岩子岸坡的地形、地质条件,建立了龙江红岩子滑坡渗流模拟有限差分计算模型,并确定了模型合理的水头边界条件。通过编写内置的FISH函数对降雨入渗、不同库水位等工况进行模拟,得到了位移场的变化规律,分析了不同库水位及降雨条件下碎石土质岸坡的稳定性,揭示了岸坡在降雨和水位下降过程中的稳定性衰减过程。降雨和水位骤降的共同作用是龙江红岩子滑坡的触发因素。为研究不同库水位和降雨条件下碎石土质库岸滑坡稳定性提供了依据。