基于数据驱动理念的电力日负荷曲线预测方法研究

针对短期日负荷预测的精度问题,本文提出一种基于数据驱动理念的电力负荷预测方法。在建立预测模型前对所给数据采取一定的预处理:首先提取所收集的海量数据的负荷特征,对负荷特征进行分析,然后进行负荷数据与影响负荷值的因素之间的相关性分析,以此确定对负荷影响较密切的因素,随后建立分类器得到各主要影响因素与各负荷类别之间的关系为后续预测模型奠定基础。对预处理后得到的不同类型的负荷数据采用最小二乘支持向量机方法建立不同的负荷预测模型。以南方某发达城市2008年的负荷数据作为算例验证数据,将本文所提负荷预测方法所得结果与未经数据预处理的负荷预测方法所得结果进行比较,结果表明本文提出的方法得到的预测结果精度较传统方法提高约6%。     

25CrNi2MoV钢的微动磨损性能

采用微动摩擦磨损试验机在干摩擦条件下对新型高速重载传动轴用25CrNi2MoV钢进行微动磨损试验,研究了不同载荷(50~200N)和频率(15~30Hz)下该钢的微动磨损性能。结果表明:在频率为20Hz条件下,当载荷由50N增至200N时,25CrNi2MoV钢的平均摩擦因数由0.766减至0.661,磨损体积由19.65×10^-3 mm^3增至75.83×10^-3 mm^3;在载荷为30N条件下,当频率由15Hz增至30Hz时,平均摩擦因数由0.790增至0.905,磨损体积由11.43×10^-3 mm^3增至23.88×10^-3 mm^3;在不同试验参数下,25CrNi2MoV钢磨损表面均出现了氧化和犁沟现象,磨损机制包含氧化磨损和磨粒磨损;在频率为20Hz条件下,载荷为50,100N时,25CrNi2MoV钢的磨损机制以黏着磨损为主,载荷为150,200N时,主要磨损机制为疲劳磨损;在载荷为30N条件下,频率为15~25Hz时,磨损机制以磨粒磨损为主,当频率增至30Hz时,磨损机制以疲劳磨损为主。     

带式输送机驱动滚筒的有限元分析

针对带式输送机驱动滚筒轴向受力情况,提出了正态分布模型,结合ANSYS-APDL的语言编辑能力,用ANSYS Workbench对均匀分布、一阶正弦分布和正态分布的4种模型进行有限元分析,得到驱动滚筒应力应变图及位移变形的对比情况,为日后实验验证与优化设计提供理论支持。     

转向齿扇多向精密成形工艺

为了降低转向齿扇成形载荷、提高成形模具寿命,通过对转向齿扇的结构特点和工艺性分析,结合多向成形金属流动特点,提出了转向齿扇多向精密成形工艺方案。采用有限元模拟软件DEFORM-3D,对转向齿扇多向精密成形过程进行了数值模拟,对其成形过程中的金属流动规律进行了分析并预测成形载荷。结果表明,成形过程中齿扇充填均匀,角隅充填饱满,多向精密成形工艺最大成形载荷比单向闭塞挤压成形载荷降低了29%,成形时间缩短了53%,有利于提高模具的使用寿命。对多向精密成形工艺进行了成形试验,试验成形出的转向齿扇充填饱满,成形载荷与预测载荷基本一致。试验结果表明了该工艺的可行性和实用性。     

汽车悬架球头拉杆冷成形技术

为提高生产效率、改变原来通过车削加工汽车悬架球头拉杆的方式,提出了一种球头拉杆的多工位冷镦成形工艺。基于DEFORM-3D软件建立了有限元模型,对球头拉杆的塑性成形过程进行了仿真,研究了预成形凸模入模角α、预成形凹模圆角R1、终成形凹模圆角R2以及终成形凹模入模角β等工艺参数对球头拉杆成形的影响,并进行了正交试验,以模具在球头拉杆成形过程中所受载荷及工件损伤值为优化目标,获得了合理的工艺参数组合。结果表明:在保证工件成形质量及模具寿命的前提下,当预成形凸模入模角α为30°、预成形凹模圆角R1为12 mm、终成形凹模圆角R2为3 mm、终成形凹模入模角β为60°时,模具载荷及工件损伤有显著的降低。采用优化后的参数进行试模生产,工件成形质量较好,验证了模拟结果的可信性,能够有效地指导工艺设计人员的设计工作。     

Effects of pyrochlore content on the phase,structure, and properties of uranium-rich glass ceramics

In this study, the effects of the pyrochlore content on the phase, structure, and properties of uranium-rich glass ceramics were studied by modifying the mass ratio of the uranium pyrochlore in the glass ceramics. The results indicate that U has a high occupancy rate of approximately 0.7 f.u. at the A position of pyrochlore, and the crystal pyrochlore phase in the glass matrix can increase or decrease according to the U amount in the waste. Specifically, at a high occupancy rate and crystallization amount, the U loads reach 20 wt% in the sample, which exceeds the reported 16 wt% maximal U loads of pyrochlore-based glass ceramics. Furthermore, all the samples have excellent mechanical properties and chemical stabilities. The bulk density of each sample is more than 90% the theoretical density, which is 10–20% higher than those of the glass ceramics prepared by pressure sintering. Moreover, the Vickers hardness values of all samples exceed 6 GPa, and the U leaching rate after 21 days is only 6.7 × 10⁻⁵ g m⁻² d⁻¹, which is an order of magnitude lower than those of brannerite glass ceramics under equal leaching conditions.     

基于ASOS-ELM的湿式球磨机负荷软测量方法

针对湿式球磨机在磨矿过程中内部负荷靠专家经验难以准确预测的问题,提出一种基于改进的共生生物搜索(ameliorated symbiotic organisms search,简称ASOS)-极限学习机(extreme learning machine,简称ELM)的磨机负荷软测量方法。首先,利用ELM算法建立磨机负荷软测量模型,运用ASOS算法优化软测量模型的隐含层参数;其次,以筒体振动与振声信号的特征信息构建磨机负荷特征向量,并将其作为软测量模型的输入,将磨机负荷参数作为输出;最后,通过磨矿负荷检测实验和对比分析表明,磨机负荷软测量模型的负荷参数预测准确率较高,泛化能力较强,为磨机磨矿效率的提高及控制优化提供了有益的指导。     

橡塑往复密封性能参数数值求解流程与物理模型探讨

橡塑往复密封的密封寿命通常是通过膜厚、承载力、泄漏率、磨损率等参数以表征。为获取上述参数,佐治亚大学SALANT提出橡塑往复密封模型建立和数值计算求解流程。为更好地理解与应用该方法,从橡塑往复密封物理结构、数值求解流程、Reynolds方程建立、方程约束边界建立、GW接触模型建立、力载平衡等6个方面系统地分析其特点与不完备之处,并从6个方面探讨数值求解流程和数值模拟的修正方法;提出密封模型修正方法,给出修正后密封数值求解流程,使得计算结果更好地与实际工作性能相吻合,并能较好地揭示密封机制。     

Reliability of design approaches for axially loaded offshore piles and its consequences with respect to the North Sea

In the near future, several offshore wind farms are planned to be built in the North Sea. Therefore, jacket and tripod constructions with mainly axially loaded piles are suitable as support structures. The current design of axial bearing resistance of these piles leads to deviant results regarding the pile resistance when different design methods are adopted. Hence, a strong deviation regarding the required pile length must be addressed. The reliability of a design method can be evaluated based on a model error which describes the quality of the considered design method by comparing measured and predicted pile bearing resistances. However, only few pile load tests are reported with regard to the boundary conditions in the North Sea. This paper presents 6 large-scale axial pile load tests which were incorporated within a new model error approach for the current design methods used for the axial bearing resistance, namely API Main Text method and cone penetration test (CPT)-based design methods, such as simplified ICP-05, offshore UWA-05, Fugro-05 and NGI-05 methods. Based on these new model errors, a reliability-based study towards the safety was conducted by performing a Monte-Carlo simulation. In addition, consequences regarding the deterministic pile design in terms of quality factors were evaluated. It is shown that the current global safety factor (GSF) prescribed and the partial safety factors are only valid for the API Main Text and the offshore UWA-05 design methods; whereas for the simplified ICP-05, Fugro-05 and NGI-05 design methods, an increase in the required embedded pile length and thus in the GSF up to 2.69, 2.95 and 3.27, respectively, should be considered to satisfy the desired safety level according to DIN EN 1990 of β = 3.8. Further, quality factors for each design method on the basis of all reliability-based design results were derived. Hence, evaluation of each design method regarding the reliability of the pile capacity prediction is possible.