基于灰色模型与ARIMA模型的股票价格预测

以三只股票的历史数据作原始序列,建立了GM(1,1)模型与ARIMA自适应过滤组合模型.分析两种模型的应用场景,并以ARIMA模型为基础建立股价反转判断模型.实验证明,所建立的模型在短期内的拟合、预测与反转判断效果较为理想.     

超高压处理对牦牛肉贮藏性能的影响

牦牛肉分别经200、400、600 MPa超高压处理480 s，测定4°C条件下贮藏0、4、8、12、16 d后感官、pH、微生物、色泽、蛋白质与脂质氧化情况，以探讨超高压处理对牦牛肉贮藏期内品质的影响。结果表明：超高压处理可以显著降低贮藏期内牦牛肉的菌落总数、总挥发性盐基氮含量（total volatile basic nitrogen, TVB-N）(P<0.05)，延长保质期，且经贮藏4～8 d后能良好保持牦牛肉的感官品质。经超高压处理后牦牛肉L*值、b*值显著增大（P<0.05）,a*值在400 MPa时显著增大（P<0.05）并在贮藏期内维持在最高水平，且400 MPa组各类肌红蛋白（Myoglobin, Mb）含量也表现出良好的肉色稳定性，但a*值在其他压力处理后显著减小（P<0.05）。但经超高压处理后牦牛肉肌原纤维蛋白（Myofibrillar Protein, MP）羰基含量与表面疏水性增高、巯基含量降低，TBARS值升高。Pearson相关性分析结果也表示超高压处理后牦牛肉品质的变化与压力、蛋白质氧化、脂质氧化和微生物相关（P<0.05...     

基于(积)耗散理论的烟气-水接触式换热优化

天然气作为供热能源在北方城市得以广泛应用,其燃烧产生的烟气中含有大量余热,采用接触式换热可实现对其高效回收.本文基于(积)耗散理论,研究如何减少接触式换热中的(积)耗散以提高换热效率.本文推导了烟气-水接触式换热表达式,从而得到烟气-水换热曲线方程,并对一段喷淋中的烟气-水换热流程进行了改进,分析了烟气-水换热产生的(积)耗散及本文的优化方向:如何减少烟气露点温度以下的烟气-水换热(积)耗散.研究了在两段喷淋方式下,如何选择分段点可使得(积)耗散最小,并以设计排烟温度30℃为例进行了具体计算,进而得到了不同典型热源在不同排烟温度下对应的喷淋水分段点温度.当设计排烟温度为30℃时,对于典型燃气锅炉和热电厂,相对于一段喷淋,两段喷淋下的(积)耗散可分别减少58％和29％以上.     

复材网片泥浆加固土坯砌体轴心受压性能试验研究

土坯砌体短柱加固选用GFRP格栅和钢丝网两种材料,对3种GFRP格栅及2种钢丝网的8种加固方式进行了轴压试验,发现GFRP格栅和钢丝网加固能够提高试件的抗压强度,格栅加固试件的抗压强度平均值提升12.33％～37.0％,钢丝网加固试件的抗压强度平均值提升29.33％～56.67％,试件的变形能力和整体性也得到了显著改善;GFRP格栅的单双层加固的效果近似,刚度大的钢丝网比刚度小的加固效果要好,GFRP格栅单层加固效果比单层钢丝网要好;所有加固方法中双层钢丝网加固效果最好.     

Permeability differences based on three-dimensional geometrical information of void spaces

In this study,the permeabilities of Berea and Otway sandstones were measured under different confining pressures,and porosity was investigated through mercury intrusion porosimetry(MIP).The total porosities of the Berea and Otway sandstones were approximately 17.4%and 25%,respectively.Pore size distributions of each sandstone were almost the same,but the pores in the Otway sandstone were slightly narrower.However,the permeability of the Otway sandstone was smaller than that of the Berea sandstone by one order of magnitude.Three-dimensional(3D)void geometry and geometrical properties of the void spaces relevant to flow were compared to obtain the relation between the permeability differences and porosities of the two sandstones.The 3D geometrical analysis using microfocus X-ray computed tomography(CT)was performed,and the pore geometries of both sandstones were compared using the 3D medial axis(3DMA)method.Pore and throat radii,pore coordination number,tortuosity,number of connecting paths,connecting path volume,and other factors were determined using 3DMA.The Otway sandstone was characterized by a small effective throat/pore radius ratio.Based on the fluid flow mechanism,the lower effective throat/pore radius ratio results in a lower permeability induced by the fluid energy loss,which means that the 3D geometrical shape of void spaces affects the permeability value.     

Advances in statistical mechanics of rock masses and its engineering applications

To efficiently link the continuum mechanics for rocks with the structural statistics of rock masses,a theoretical and methodological system called the statistical mechanics of rock masses(SMRM)was developed in the past three decades.In SMRM,equivalent continuum models of stressestrain relationship,strength and failure probability for jointed rock masses were established,which were based on the geometric probability models characterising the rock mass structure.This follows the statistical physics,the continuum mechanics,the fracture mechanics and the weakest link hypothesis.A general constitutive model and complete stressestrain models under compressive and shear conditions were also developed as the derivatives of the SMRM theory.An SMRM calculation system was then developed to provide fast and precise solutions for parameter estimations of rock masses,such as full-direction rock quality designation(RQD),elastic modulus,Coulomb compressive strength,rock mass quality rating,and Poisson’s ratio and shear strength.The constitutive equations involved in SMRM were integrated into a FLAC3D based numerical module to apply for engineering rock masses.It is also capable of analysing the complete deformation of rock masses and active reinforcement of engineering rock masses.Examples of engineering applications of SMRM were presented,including a rock mass at QBT hydropower station in northwestern China,a dam slope of Zongo II hydropower station in D.R.Congo,an open-pit mine in Dexing,China,an underground powerhouse of Jinping I hydropower station in southwestern China,and a typical circular tunnel in Lanzhou-Chongqing railway,China.These applications verified the reliability of the SMRM and demonstrated its applicability to broad engineering issues associated with jointed rock masses.     

割煤截齿摩擦石英砂岩引燃(爆)煤壁短钻孔涌出瓦斯的危险性研究

本文针对夹矸(石英砂岩)煤层的综采工作面,存在割煤截齿摩擦石英砂岩引燃(爆)浅孔抽放短钻孔涌出瓦斯的风险,以试验工作面为研究背景,通过Fluent数值模拟和MATLAB数据处理分析,研究了对采煤机滚筒后方浅孔抽放钻孔口周围瓦斯引燃危险区的分布规律,并在现场释放CO2模拟了钻孔瓦斯涌出的情况,测得的CO2体积分数分布与数值模拟结果基本一致.研究结果表明:当钻孔口处于采煤机滚筒后方不同位置时,其周围瓦斯引燃(爆)危险区的形状、大小及在钻孔口的分布方位都发生变化.随着钻孔瓦斯流量的增大,瓦斯引燃(爆)危险区的形状基本相同,面积增大,竖直长度随之线性增加;但在采煤机滚筒后方1 m这个最易引起爆炸的范围内,瓦斯引燃(爆)危险区的面积并不大,最大竖直长度为196 mm,如果在竖直方向将钻孔距石英砂岩的安全距离控制在392 mm以上,可以避免浅孔抽放短钻孔涌出瓦斯被引燃(爆)的风险.     

Parametric study of a new HOS-CFD coupling method

This paper presents a developed new coupled method which combined our in-house CFD solver naoe-FOAM-SJTU and naoe-FOAM-os with a potential theory High Order Spectral method(HOS).A parametric study of nonlinear wave propagation in computational fluid dynamics(CFD)zone is considered.Mesh convergence,time step convergence,time discretization scheme and length of relaxation zone are all carried out.Those parametric studies verify the steady of this new combined method and give better choice for wave propagation.The dissipation in propagation of nonlinear regular wave can be lower than 3%in static mesh,and less than 2%in overset grid mesh.Meanwhile,a LNG FPSO is put into the viscous wave tank to study the suitable size of CFD zone.To achieve a better solution with least calculating resources and best numerical results,the length of CFD zone is discussed.These parametric studies can give reference upon employment of the potential-viscous coupled method and validation of the coupled method.     

浅谈安徽省淮河干流河势稳定影响的因素及措施

一、基本情况安徽省淮河干流上自洪河口,下至洪山头,河道全长418km,属于淮河中游,流经安徽省11个县(市),沿河两侧湖泊洼地交错,河流在湖洼间蜿蜒穿行。洪河口~正阳关河段两岸为岗地,平均坡降0.350000。正阳关~蚌埠河段北岸为淮北平原,南岸为丘陵边缘,受峡山和荆涂山两个节点控制,平均坡降0.30000。蚌埠~浮山间北岸为平原,南岸为丘陵边缘;浮山以下两岸为岗地,受浮山节点控制,平均坡降0.20000。     

Numerical and experimental study of internal solitary wave loads on tension leg platforms

With the large-scale density stratified tank and the numerical flume proposed,series of numerical cases in line with the experiments are carried out to investigate the interaction between the tension leg platforms(TLPs)and the internal solitary waves(ISWs).The waveforms,and the loads and the torques on the TLP obtained by the experiments and the simulations agree well with each other.Experimental results show that the amplitudes of the dimensionless horizontal force and torque linearly increase with the dimensionless amplitude,while that of the vertical force increases in a parabolic curve.Besides,the numerical results indicate that the horizontal and vertical forces on the TLP due to the ISWs can be divided into three components,namely,the wave pressure-difference forces,the viscous pressure-difference forces,and the frictional force that is negligible.The wave pressure-difference forces are always the major constituents.However the viscous pressure-difference component is unimportant,it is negligible as compared with the vertical forces.