基于分形理论的黄河内蒙古段河势演变特征及其与凌汛灾害关联研究

寒区河道凌汛灾害河势“弯道效应”的量化评估十分重要。基于分形理论提出河道横断面-纵剖面-平面多维度河势分形维数计算方法及其物理机制，并探讨黄河内蒙古段不同维度河势演变分形特征及其与凌汛灾害的关联关系。结果表明，黄河内蒙古段不同维度河势均具有多尺度自相似分形特征，且具有多年记忆周期的长程相关性；冰坝（严重性冰塞）发生频次与河道主槽弯曲分形维数呈正相关指数型函数关系，与河相系数、深泓点高程和河段平均底坡分形维数负相关，与水深-面积分形维数正相关，总体表明冰坝灾害更易发生于主槽偏移摆动大、蜿蜒曲折、河湾发育程度高的宽浅型弯曲河道，研究成果可为凌汛期冰塞冰坝灾害易发河段诊断及预测提供重要理论依据。     

澜湄环境利益共同体模式的评价与选择研究

推进澜湄合作是构建周边命运共同体的具体实践，以“同饮一江水，命运紧相连”为主题的澜湄合作机制也为构建澜湄国家命运共同体提供了推进方向。环境问题是澜湄流域最为核心的问题之一，面向澜湄合作中的环境利益问题，文章结合共同体的理念，基于霍尔三维结构理论，总结出合作伙伴环境利益共同体模式、合作联盟环境利益共同体模式与一体化环境利益共同体模式的三种环境利益共同体模式，通过建立环境利益共同体模式的评价指标体系，利用网络层次分析法对澜湄环境利益共同体模式进行评价，选择适合澜沧江-湄公河的环境利益共同体模式。结果表明，在当前的澜湄现状下，以“澜湄六国通过开发流域资源发展本国经济而同时受到其他主体监督以保证不破坏澜沧江-湄公河的生态环境”为主要内容的合作联盟环境利益共同体模式更适合澜湄流域各国，这一模式可以有效解决流域各国经济与环境“两难重”的困境。     

工业余热跨季节储热系统优化及经济性分析

以工业余热跨季节储热用于区域供热系统为研究对象,在一个已有的1 MW工业余热系统的基础上,搭建工业余热跨季节储热系统设计方案,通过系统模拟对系统储热、取热过程进行分析。分析结果表明:工业余热跨季节储热适合长周期、大规模蓄热;储热体体积和循环流量应根据系统热源和取热装置特性进行合理匹配,在合理匹配范围内可参考系统经济性确定系统最优配置。最后,通过费用年值法分析优化后的系统经济性,分析表明工业余热跨季节储热用于区域供热成本仅略高于燃煤供热,相比燃气供热具有非常可观的经济性。     

The potential limitations on its basin decision-making processes of granting self-defence rights to Father Rhine

ABSTRACT

Recent grants of legal rights to rivers would seem to infuse traditional anthropocentric river governance with greater eco-centrism. Through a thought experiment, we scrutinize this proposition for the Rhine basin. We consider the governance implications of granting (procedural/material) rights to the river and elaborate on their implications for the three highly institutionalized regimes of the Rhine River of water quality, flooding and transport. Since we find that a shift to more eco-centrism has already occurred and since the right granted to the river would not be absolute, we deem radical transformations unlikely.     

基于SARIMA-GRNN-SVM的短期商业电力负荷组合预测方法

针对短期商业电力负荷预测准确性与周期难以满足现有电力现货市场的问题,提出了一种基于SARIMAGRNN-SVM(seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average-generalized regression neural network-support vector machine)的商业电力负荷组合预测模型。首先,对商业电力负荷变化的周期规律与随机因素的复杂影响进行了分析;然后,结合以上分析,选用SARIMA和GRNN为单一预测模型对商业电力负荷进行预测,并利用SVM进行组合,实现日前商业电力负荷预测;最后,通过某商业综合体的电力负荷数据进行验证。所提组合预测模型较单一预测模型拥有更优的预测精度与鲁棒性,可以为短期商业电力负荷预测提供借鉴。     

Can Tolerant Diatom Taxa be Used for Effective Assessments of Human Pressure?

Because lately the low bioindicative value of tolerant species from different taxonomic groups is often questioned, in this study, we hypothesized that tolerant diatoms may be used for effective temporal assessments of human pressure. We tested this on the lowland Bzura River in central Poland, on 156 diatom samples (DSs) from two study periods of 1972 with extremely severe point‐source water pollution and of 2002–2004, where the complex wastewater management in the river catchment improved water quality considerably. Out of the total 295 diatom species recorded in the samples, only 133 tolerant ones were included in the study. Patterns in their abundance were recognized with a Kohonen artificial neural network (self‐organizing map, SOM), whereas the species significantly associated with each SOM cluster of diatom samples were identified with the indicator value (IndVal) index and the Monte Carlo test. If the hypothesis tested was not supported, the assignation of DSs to the SOM clusters would be random. However, the separation of DSs from 1972 and 2002–2004 was almost perfect because the number of exceptions was as low as 4.5%. In addition, the relatively high number (64 out of 133) of tolerant species significantly associated with any SOM cluster (and respective environmental conditions at sites from which samples assigned to it come) supports the hypothesis tested. This means that almost half of the studied species are not evenly distributed in particular clusters as might be expected for highly tolerant species. The study proves that the abundances of many diatom species, currently classified as tolerant, carry quite precise information on the differences in the quality of the environment, and indicates those tolerant diatom species whose bioindicative potential may be highest. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.