Deterministic and probabilistic ship pitch prediction using a multi-predictor integration model based on hybrid data preprocessing,reinforcement learning and improved QRNN

The deterministic and probabilistic prediction of ship motion is important for safe navigation and stable real-time operational control of ships at sea. However, the volatility and randomness of ship motion, the non-adaptive nature of single predictors and the poor coverage of quantile regression pose serious challenges to uncertainty prediction, making research in this field limited. In this paper, a multi-predictor integration model based on hybrid data preprocessing, reinforcement learning and improved quantile regression neural network (QRNN) is proposed to explore the deterministic and probabilistic prediction of ship pitch motion. To validate the performance of the proposed multi-predictor integrated prediction model, an experimental study is conducted with three sets of actual ship longitudinal motions during sea trials in the South China Sea. The experimental results indicate that the root mean square errors (RMSEs) of the proposed model of deterministic prediction are 0.0254°, 0.0359°, and 0.0188°, respectively. Taking series #2 as an example, the prediction interval coverage probabilities (PICPs) of the proposed model of probability predictions at 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence levels (CLs) are 0.9400, 0.9800, and 1.0000, respectively. This study signifies that the proposed model can provide trusted deterministic predictions and can effectively quantify the uncertainty of ship pitch motion, which has the potential to provide practical support for ship early warning systems.     

Comments on “Study and application of discharge calibration for submerged radial gates” by Guo X., Guo Y., Wang T., Fu H., Li J. Flow Meas. Instrum. 78 (2021) 101912, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.flowmeasinst.2021.101912

This paper discusses the capability of Guo et al.'s (2021) equations to determine the discharge of radial gates under submerged flow conditions. It was concluded that Guo et al.'s (2021) equations are associated with error reduction compared to the Incomplete Self-Similarity (ISS) theory and the calibration method. However, it does not have a significant advantage over Energy-Momentum (E-M) approach. Employing E-M principles, new equations were proposed to determine the discharge of radial gates, which has some advantages compared to Guo et al. (2021), such as (1) error reduction under partially and fully submerged flow conditions, (2) least dependence on the empirical constants, (3) uniformity of form over the entire submerged condition, and (4) no need to classify the submerged flow. Field calibration showed that the proposed equations in the present study for a single gate predict the discharge of parallel radial gates with a mean absolute error of less than 4.5% subject to the submerged operation of all open gates.     

径向不耦合装药爆破效果的数值研究

为了研究径向不耦合条件下爆破效果的影响因素,利用AUTODYN-2D对比不耦合系数、不耦合介质、炸药种类对爆破效果的影响规律。结果表明,与耦合装药相比,径向不耦合装药条件下炮孔压力明显降低。对比水介质和空气介质下的爆破效果可知,水介质不耦合条件下,炸药爆炸能量的传递效率更高。炮孔压力与炸药种类密切相关,TNT产生的炮孔压力最大,但作用时间较短,而ANFO和乳化炸药的作用时间较长。     

能源土边界面模型的应力更新算法及算例分析

水合物的存在会显著影响能源土的刚度、峰值强度与剪胀性。针对已有能源土模型的不足，结合边界面模型的建模思想，构建一个新的能源土边界面模型，模型参数较少，能够恰当反映能源土的应力-应变关系。计算能源土变形问题的核心在于正确积分塑性本构方程，应用完全隐式回退Euler算法，建立模型应力及塑性内变量的更新公式，并给出显式的一致性切线模量表达式。基于ABAQUS软件提供的二次开发接口，编写模型的用户材料子程序，应用已有试验数据验证程序正确性。最后应用开发的子程序对能源土的平面应变试验进行模拟，分析水合物饱和度对剪切带倾角与孔隙比的影响。     

On the numerical solution of Fredholm integral equations utilizing the local radial basis function method

The current investigation describes a computational technique to solve one- and two-dimensional Fredholm integral equations of the second kind. The method estimates the solution using the discrete collocation method by combining locally supported radial basis functions (RBFs) constructed on a small set of nodes instead of all points over the analysed domain. In this work, we employ the Gauss–Legendre integration rule on the influence domains of shape functions to approximate the local integrals appearing in the method. In comparison with the globally supported RBFs for solving integral equations, the proposed method is stable and uses much less computer memory. The scheme does not require any cell structures, so it is meshless. We also obtain the error analysis of the proposed method and demonstrate that the convergence rate of the approach is high. Illustrative examples clearly show the reliability and efficiency of the new method.     

First principles computational studies of spontaneous reduction reaction of Eu(III) in eutectic LiCl‐KCl molten salt

Using first principles calculations, we study fundamental mechanism of spontaneous reduction reaction of Eu³⁺ to Eu²⁺ in eutectic LiCl‐KCl molten salt. We decouple the reaction Gibbs free energy into enthalpy and entropy contributions by using rigorous thermodynamic formalism. Key structural features of the solvation shell are characterized by the radial distribution function and the coordination number. Compared with Eu²⁺, the Eu³⁺ ion has a more rigid framework of the solvation shells, corroborating its stronger electrostatic interaction with neighboring ligands of Cl^? ions and a more favorable state on the aspect of enthalpy. Computations on vibrational frequency, however, pose significant contribution of vibrational entropy to the reaction Gibbs free energy for the reduction. Vibration frequency of Eu²⁺ is smaller than that of Eu³⁺, driving a more positive change of the entropy in the reduction reaction. Furthermore, an Eu²⁺ diffuses more quickly than an Eu³⁺ in the LiCl‐KCl molten salt with switching mechanism of ligand Cl^? ions in the solvation shell. Our results propose that the spontaneity of the reduction reaction is driven by the entropic contribution by overcoming the penalty of the reaction enthalpy.     

镁合金网格壁板压弯成形数值模拟及实验研究

为探索镁合金整体壁板压弯成形的可行性,以及镁合金壁板压弯成形过程中金属的流动规律,对AZ31镁合金网格壁板压弯成形进行了数值模拟和实验研究。建立了有限元数值模拟的几何模型,采用有限元计算软件对AZ31镁合金网格壁板压弯成形过程进行了数值模拟研究,分析了镁合金网格壁板压弯成形中的温度场、应变场、应力场、破坏系数等的分布规律。确定了合适的AZ31镁合金壁板压弯成形工艺参数,并对镁合金网格壁板压弯成形进行了实验研究,获得了合格的镁合金网格壁板弯曲件,并分析了镁合金网格壁板成形件尺寸精度,模拟结果与实验结果相吻合,最大相对误差为16.7%。     

跨坐式单轨车辆辅助导向装置的输出特性

单轨车辆的走行部径向通过曲线时可以减小走行轮的磨耗和导向轮的载荷。以跨坐式单轨车辆辅助导向装置的几何关系和油气弹簧的力学特性为出发点，推导辅助导向装置产生力矩与转向架和车体之间摇头角度的解析关系。建立有辅助导向装置时车辆稳态曲线通过的力学模型，分析辅助导向装置能够使转向架在圆曲线上处于径向位置的条件，并利用多刚体动力学软件建立跨坐式单轨车辆的稳态曲线通过验证模型。通过理论分析和模型仿真计算发现，当合理油压弹簧预压力选择合适的数值时，辅助导向装置的输出力矩与二系悬挂的回转力矩相互抵消，走行部的摇头角接近零，能够使转向架在圆曲线上处于径向位置，并有效缓解走行轮与导向轮的磨耗。     

后背门内板密封面起皱问题的改善

对后背门内板拉伸过程出现的起皱问题进行了分析,并结合CAE分析制定整改方案,通过现场模具维修,消除了该处起皱问题,对类似制件的开发和模具维修有一定的借鉴作用。     

基于混沌理论的弧形闸门支臂振动特性

为了研究弧形闸门支臂的振动问题,采用混沌理论对时间序列进行处理,确定延迟时间τ、嵌入维数m进行相空间重构,并计算时间序列的混沌特征值,进而研究弧形闸门在启闭过程中振动的复杂性。以某水电站弧形闸门支臂振动为研究对象,根据支臂振动加速度原型观测资料,分析不同开度的振动情况,发现启门振动的复杂程度高于闭门工况,小开度的振动复杂程度更高,且支臂振动的复杂程度为与面板连接位置最大,与闸墩连接位置最小,中间位置介于前两者之间。为弧形闸门短期振动预测提供了支持。