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2.
The deterministic and probabilistic prediction of ship motion is important for safe navigation and stable real-time operational control of ships at sea. However, the volatility and randomness of ship motion, the non-adaptive nature of single predictors and the poor coverage of quantile regression pose serious challenges to uncertainty prediction, making research in this field limited. In this paper, a multi-predictor integration model based on hybrid data preprocessing, reinforcement learning and improved quantile regression neural network (QRNN) is proposed to explore the deterministic and probabilistic prediction of ship pitch motion. To validate the performance of the proposed multi-predictor integrated prediction model, an experimental study is conducted with three sets of actual ship longitudinal motions during sea trials in the South China Sea. The experimental results indicate that the root mean square errors (RMSEs) of the proposed model of deterministic prediction are 0.0254°, 0.0359°, and 0.0188°, respectively. Taking series #2 as an example, the prediction interval coverage probabilities (PICPs) of the proposed model of probability predictions at 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence levels (CLs) are 0.9400, 0.9800, and 1.0000, respectively. This study signifies that the proposed model can provide trusted deterministic predictions and can effectively quantify the uncertainty of ship pitch motion, which has the potential to provide practical support for ship early warning systems. 相似文献
3.
Diabetes mellitus is a major healthcare problem. It is not only characterized by hyperglycemia and chronic complications, but in longer lasting diabetes and a longer living population, it is also associated with accelerated arterial ageing, which importantly contributes to cardiovascular complications. The accelerated arterial ageing in patients with diabetes should be considered separately from arterial ageing in patients without diabetes. Basic and clinical research have allowed better insight into the mechanisms of arterial ageing. In a simplified mechanistic way, it could be considered that the three tightly connected cornerstone characteristics of arterial ageing in patients with diabetes are: phenotypic presentation as endothelial dysfunction and arterial stiffness, and the underlying basic ageing-facilitating mechanism represented as the impaired expression of genetic longevity pathways. Currently, specific drugs for preventing/treating arterial ageing are not available. Therefore, we aimed to review the capacity of available drugs, particularly antidiabetic drugs, to interfere with the arterial ageing process. In the near future, these characteristics could help to guide therapy in patients with diabetes. Overall, it appears that arterial ageing could become a new target in diabetes. The expanding knowledge regarding the capability of antidiabetic drugs and other available drugs to inhibit/delay arterial aging is therefore essential. 相似文献
4.
支承或连接构件对梁结构的动力学性能有至关重要影响,必须保证其在振动过程中不发生破坏或者失效。通过合理设计和布局附加弹性支承可以实现对这些重要连接构件所承受约束反力的控制。应用微分变换法推导含附加支承的梁结构支承约束反力及其对于附加支承位置和刚度的灵敏度表达式,并通过优化设计附加支承位置和刚度实现具有弹性约束端的简支梁结构各支承约束反力的平衡,可提高结构的动力学性能。 相似文献
6.
This paper discusses the capability of Guo et al.'s (2021) equations to determine the discharge of radial gates under submerged flow conditions. It was concluded that Guo et al.'s (2021) equations are associated with error reduction compared to the Incomplete Self-Similarity (ISS) theory and the calibration method. However, it does not have a significant advantage over Energy-Momentum (E-M) approach. Employing E-M principles, new equations were proposed to determine the discharge of radial gates, which has some advantages compared to Guo et al. (2021), such as (1) error reduction under partially and fully submerged flow conditions, (2) least dependence on the empirical constants, (3) uniformity of form over the entire submerged condition, and (4) no need to classify the submerged flow. Field calibration showed that the proposed equations in the present study for a single gate predict the discharge of parallel radial gates with a mean absolute error of less than 4.5% subject to the submerged operation of all open gates. 相似文献
7.
为了研究径向不耦合条件下爆破效果的影响因素,利用AUTODYN-2D对比不耦合系数、不耦合介质、炸药种类对爆破效果的影响规律。结果表明,与耦合装药相比,径向不耦合装药条件下炮孔压力明显降低。对比水介质和空气介质下的爆破效果可知,水介质不耦合条件下,炸药爆炸能量的传递效率更高。炮孔压力与炸药种类密切相关,TNT产生的炮孔压力最大,但作用时间较短,而ANFO和乳化炸药的作用时间较长。 相似文献
8.
Guiyong Zhang Zecong Chen Zhixiang Sui Dongsong Tao Zhicheng He Qian Tang Lei Sun 《International journal for numerical methods in engineering》2019,119(6):548-566
It is well known that the finite element method (FEM) encounters dispersion errors in coping with mid-frequency acoustic problems due to its “overly stiff” nature. By introducing the generalized gradient smoothing technique and the idea of condensed shape functions with virtual nodes, a cell-based smoothed radial point interpolation method is proposed to solve the Helmholtz equation for the purpose of reducing dispersion errors. With the properly selected virtual nodes, the proposed method can provide a close-to-exact stiffness of continuum, leading to a conspicuous decrease in dispersion errors and a significant improvement in accuracy. Numerical examples are examined using the present method by comparing with both the traditional FEM using four-node tetrahedral elements (FEM-T4) and the FEM model using eight-node hexahedral elements with modified integration rules (MIR-H8). The present cell-based smoothed radial point interpolation method has been demonstrated to possess a number of superiorities, including the automatically generated tetrahedral background mesh, high computational efficiency, and insensitivity to mesh distortion, which make the method a good potential for practical analysis of acoustic problems. 相似文献
9.
The current investigation describes a computational technique to solve one- and two-dimensional Fredholm integral equations of the second kind. The method estimates the solution using the discrete collocation method by combining locally supported radial basis functions (RBFs) constructed on a small set of nodes instead of all points over the analysed domain. In this work, we employ the Gauss–Legendre integration rule on the influence domains of shape functions to approximate the local integrals appearing in the method. In comparison with the globally supported RBFs for solving integral equations, the proposed method is stable and uses much less computer memory. The scheme does not require any cell structures, so it is meshless. We also obtain the error analysis of the proposed method and demonstrate that the convergence rate of the approach is high. Illustrative examples clearly show the reliability and efficiency of the new method. 相似文献
10.
First principles computational studies of spontaneous reduction reaction of Eu(III) in eutectic LiCl‐KCl molten salt 下载免费PDF全文
Using first principles calculations, we study fundamental mechanism of spontaneous reduction reaction of Eu3+ to Eu2+ in eutectic LiCl‐KCl molten salt. We decouple the reaction Gibbs free energy into enthalpy and entropy contributions by using rigorous thermodynamic formalism. Key structural features of the solvation shell are characterized by the radial distribution function and the coordination number. Compared with Eu2+, the Eu3+ ion has a more rigid framework of the solvation shells, corroborating its stronger electrostatic interaction with neighboring ligands of Cl? ions and a more favorable state on the aspect of enthalpy. Computations on vibrational frequency, however, pose significant contribution of vibrational entropy to the reaction Gibbs free energy for the reduction. Vibration frequency of Eu2+ is smaller than that of Eu3+, driving a more positive change of the entropy in the reduction reaction. Furthermore, an Eu2+ diffuses more quickly than an Eu3+ in the LiCl‐KCl molten salt with switching mechanism of ligand Cl? ions in the solvation shell. Our results propose that the spontaneity of the reduction reaction is driven by the entropic contribution by overcoming the penalty of the reaction enthalpy. 相似文献