居民出行产生量BP神经网络预测方法

居民出行产生量预测是交通需求分析的重要内容之一,预测结果是确定各类城市交通设施发展规模及布局规划的重要依据.通过分析人工神经网络的作用机理和居民出行产生量的影响因素,建立了居民出行产生量预测的四层BP神经网络模型,以土地利用作为输入神经元,以交通区居民出行产生量作为输出单元,以赣州市城市综合交通规划交通调查数据对模型进行了标定与检验,并与出行次数法和回归分析法进行了比较,结果表明BP神经网络模型具有较高的预测精度.     

快速路入口匝道连接段交通熵特性

针对以往研究中大多运用车辆当量换算方法来描述混合交通流的性能,无法取得良好效果的问题,采用基于车头时距的方法来计算车辆当量换算系数,并在此基础上,研究了城市快速路入口匝道连接段交通熵的特性以及交通量与车辆行驶平均速度、交通熵的非线性关系。研究结果可为城市快速路入口匝道连接段交通流特性分析、通行能力计算和服务水平分析提供参考。     

路侧停车区域非机动车冲突概率分布

为揭示路侧停车对非机动车骑行行为的影响机理,结合现场调查数据开展了路侧停车区域非机动车与机动车之间严重性冲突判别、非机动车避险行为及严重性冲突概率分布模型研究.提出以非完全制动距离作为非机严重性冲突判别指标,获得研究路段非机严重性冲突及避险行为数据,得出减速是最主要的避险方式;构建了非机严重性冲突的泊松概率分布模型,提出了以正态分布为基础的骑行安全性判定模型及临界值计算标准,并以调查路段进行了安全性评估.     

Operation reliability for on-ramp junction of urban freeway

A disorder situation of traffic operation always appears in on-ramp junction area of urban freeway, because the operation action for vehicles presents the weaving condition, especially for different vehicle types. Based on the analysis on the cellular automata theory, and combining with on-site survey data, several key parameters were defined, namely, cellular length, cellular speed, cellular acceleration, updating time interval. In addition, cellular acceleration rule, cellular deceleration rule, random rule, lane-changing rule and other micro-simulation rules were set, and cellular automaton micro-simulation model was set up. Further-more, a micro-simulation module was developed for traffic operation actions of on-ramp junction with Matlab toolbox. Finally, a simulation experiment for traffic operation reliability was done with this micro-simulation module, and the situation of change for on-ramp junction area was obtained under the conditions of different mainline design speed, acceleration lane length, vehicle generation probability and lane-changing probability. The results show that operation reliability for on-ramp junction is determined by the parameters of the probability of vehicle generation and the length of acceleration lane, especially for on-ramp.     

毕业班教学问题思考

针对工科院校毕业班教学过程中存在的问题,提出从课程设置、教学内容及考核方法等方面的改善策略。教学实践证明,通过教育认知优化教学内容及手段,采用累加式考核方法能有效激发毕业班学生学习的主动性,提高课堂教学互动性,增强学生学习知识和运用知识的能力。