State-space ARIMA for supply-chain forecasting

ARIMA is seldom used in supply chains in practice. There are several reasons, not the least of which is the small sample size of available data, which restricts the usage of the model. Keeping in mind this restriction, we discuss in this paper a state-space ARIMA model with a single source of error and show how it can be efficiently used in the supply-chain context, especially in cases when only two seasonal cycles of data are available. We propose a new order selection algorithm for the model and compare its performance with the conventional ARIMA on real data. We show that the proposed model performs well in terms of both accuracy and computational time in comparison with other ARIMA implementations, which makes it efficient in the supply-chain context.     

A Global Maximum Error Controller Based Nonlinearity Aware TPWL Method for Reducing Nonlinear Systems

Abstract

Model order reduction is a common practice to reduce large order systems so that their simulation and control become easy. Nonlinearity aware trajectory piecewise linear is a variation of trajectory piecewise linearization technique of order reduction that is used to reduce nonlinear systems. With this scheme, the reduced approximation of the system is generated by weighted sum of the linearized and reduced sub-models obtained at certain linearization points on the system trajectory. This scheme uses dynamically inspired weight assignment that makes the approximation nonlinearity aware. Just as weight assignment, the process of linearization points selection is also important for generating faithful approximations. This article uses a global maximum error controller based linearization points selection scheme according to which a state is chosen as a linearization point if the error between a current reduced model and the full order nonlinear system reaches a maximum value. A combination that not only selects linearization points based on an error controller but also assigns dynamic inspired weights is shown in this article. The proposed scheme generates approximations with higher accuracies. This is demonstrated by applying the proposed method to some benchmark nonlinear circuits including RC ladder network and inverter chain circuit and comparing the results with the conventional schemes.     

Hybrid make-to-stock and make-to-order systems: a taxonomic review

Production planning and control (PPC) systems that employ aspects from both make-to-order (MTO) and make-to-stock (MTS) production control are known as hybrid MTS/MTO systems. While both MTO and MTS separately have been studied extensively, their combined use has received less attention. However, the literature on this topic is growing and this paper shows that the review performed in this paper is an important addition to the field. We categorise relevant literature according to a novel taxonomy and show that hybrid MTS/MTO production control can be used in different contexts. In addition, an overview of the modelling techniques and methods used in these papers is provided. Based on the reviewed literature, relevant research questions and directions for future research are identified. Finally, it is shown that hybrid MTS/MTO production control is prevalent in practice by discussing research with industrial applications. The paper contains an overview of research on hybrid MTS/MTO production control to be used as reference for researchers active in the field, and provides managerial insights and directions for future research on this topic.     

Ultimate bearing capacity of strip footing resting on clay soil mixed with tire-derived aggregates

This study investigated the use of recycled tire-derived aggregate (TDA) mixed with kaolin as a method of increasing the ultimate bearing capacity ( UBC) of a strip footing. Thirteen 1g physical modeling tests were prepared in a rigid box of 0.6 m × 0.9 m in plan and 0.6 m in height. During sample preparation, 0%, 20%, 40%, or 60% (by weight) of powdery, shredded, small-sized granular (G 1–4 mm) or large-sized granular (G 5–8 mm) TDA was mixed with the kaolin. A strip footing was then placed on the stabilized kaolin and was caused to fail under stress-controlled conditions to determine the UBC. A rigorous 3D finite element analysis was developed in Optum G-3 to determine the UBC values based on the experimental test results. The experimental results showed that, except for the 20% powdery TDA, the TDA showed an increase in the UBC of the strip footing. When kaolin mixed with 20% G (5–8 mm), the UBC showed a threefold increase over that for the unreinforced case. The test with 20% G (1–4 mm) recorded the highest subgrade modulus. It was observed that the UBC calculated using finite element modeling overestimated the experimental UBC by an average of 9%.     

Deposition of UF5 on the surface of steel material having oxide coating in contact with gaseous UF6

When UF6 is handled in leak tight system, the amount of uranium compound formed on the surface of containers, valves, and others in UF6 handling facilities is not so significant for a short term that special attention has not been given to this problem. The present work was done to throw some more light on this problem based on the recent experiment. We discuss the possibility that the intermolecular transfer of a fluorine atom from UF6 to UF5 may participate in the formation of uranium compound. The discussion includes also the unique features contained in the experimental result, the reaction processes assumed in this problem, and the derivation of a rate equation for expressing the deposition of uranium compound. Furthermore, we propose a new method for determining nonlinear parameters included in a governing differential equation having two variables for expressing the deposition of uranium compound from experimental raw data.     

Design and performance study of phase‐locked loop using fractional‐order loop filter

The present work reports the realization of an analog fractional‐order phase‐locked loop (FPLL) using a fractional capacitor. The expressions for bandwidth, capture range, and lock range of the FPLL have been derived analytically and then compared with the experimental observations using LM565 IC. It has been observed that bandwidth and capture range can be extended by using FPLL. It has also been found that FPLL can provide faster response and lower phase error at the time of switching compared to its integer‐order counterpart. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Delay compensated control of the Stefan problem and robustness to delay mismatch

This paper presents a control design for the one‐phase Stefan problem under actuator delay via a backstepping method. The Stefan problem represents a liquid‐solid phase change phenomenon which describes the time evolution of a material's temperature profile and the interface position. The actuator delay is modeled by a first‐order hyperbolic partial differential equation (PDE), resulting in a cascaded transport‐diffusion PDE system defined on a time‐varying spatial domain described by an ordinary differential equation (ODE). Two nonlinear backstepping transformations are utilized for the control design. The setpoint restriction is given to guarantee a physical constraint on the proposed controller for the melting process. This constraint ensures the exponential convergence of the moving interface to a setpoint and the exponential stability of the temperature equilibrium profile and the delayed controller in the norm. Furthermore, robustness analysis with respect to the delay mismatch between the plant and the controller is studied, which provides analogous results to the exact compensation by restricting the control gain.     

Preventive replacement policies with time of operations,mission durations,minimal repairs and maintenance triggering approaches

When a mission arrives at a random time and lasts for a duration, it becomes an interesting problem to plan replacement policies according to the health condition and repair history of the operating unit, as the reliability is required at mission time and no replacement can be done preventively during the mission duration. From this viewpoint, this paper proposes that effective replacement policies should be collaborative ones gathering data from time of operations, mission durations, minimal repairs and maintenance triggering approaches. We firstly discuss replacement policies with time of operations and random arrival times of mission durations, model the policies and find optimum replacement times and mission durations to minimize the expected replacement cost rates analytically. Secondly, replacement policies with minimal repairs and mission durations are discussed in a similar analytical way. Furthermore, the maintenance triggering approaches, i.e., replacement first and last, are also considered into respective replacement policies. Numerical examples are illustrated when the arrival time of the mission has a gamma distribution and the failure time of the unit has a Weibull distribution. In addition, simple case illustrations of maintaining the production system in glass factories are given based on the assumed data.     

PAN纤维共聚单体作用机理的光电离质谱研究

本工作以丙烯腈/衣康酸（IA）二元共聚原丝以及丙烯腈/IA/丙烯酸甲酯（MA）三元共聚原丝为研究对象，利用热重分析仪（TG）和热解-同步辐射真空紫外光电离质谱（Py-SVUV-PIMS）对其热稳定化过程进行研究。TG结果表明，氮气气氛下，二元共聚原丝（PAN/IA）和三元共聚原丝（PAN/IA/MA）分别呈现三阶段和两阶段的热分解过程，其中PAN/IA的第一和第二阶段均对应PAN线型分子链的断裂，但前者是由自由基环化反应放热引发的，后者则是由正常温度下的热分解所致，而单体MA的加入显著抑制了自由基环化反应，使得PAN原丝的热稳定化能够以单体IA诱导的离子型环化反应为主较平缓地进行，相应的热失重过程也由两阶段转变为了单阶段。Py-SVUV-MS的实验结果表明，两种共聚PAN原丝在程序升温过程中会生成包括含氮小分子、丙烯腈单体及低聚物、成环化合物在内的三类主要热解产物，对比各类产物的生成趋势和产量，推断单体MA通过降低PAN结构的规整度，使其无定形化，从而增加环化反应的引发点，促进PAN原丝向稳定的预氧丝转变，同时由典型热解产物——甲基丙烯腈的生成路径可知，MA本身并不参与PAN大分子的环化反应，属于中性共聚单体。空气气氛下，CO₂的产量差异也间接证明了MA单体能够有效提升PAN纤维的固碳能力，采用三元共聚方法制得的PAN纤维热稳定性能更佳。     

具有光照鲁棒的图像匹配方法

针对现有的基于局部特征的图像匹配算法对光照变化敏感、匹配正确率低等问题，提出一种具有光照鲁棒性的图像匹配算法。首先使用实时对比保留去色（RTCP）算法灰度化图像，然后利用对比拉伸函数模拟不同光照变换对图像的影响从而提取抗光照变换特征点，最后采用局部强度顺序模式建立特征点描述符，根据待匹配图像局部特征点描述符的欧氏距离判断是否为成对匹配点。在公开数据集上，所提算法与尺度不变特征变换（SIFT）算法、加速鲁棒特征（SURF）算法、"风"（KAZE）算法和ORB算法在匹配速度和匹配正确率上进行了对比实验。实验结果表明：随着图像亮度差异的增加，SIFT算法、SURF算法、"风"（KAZE）算法和ORB算法匹配正确率下降迅速，所提算法下降缓慢并且正确率均高于80%；所提算法特征点检测较慢和描述符维数较高，平均耗时为23.47 s，匹配速度不及另外四种算法，但匹配质量却远超过它们。对实时性要求不高的系统中，所提算法可以克服光照变化对图像匹配造成的影响。