基于Monte Carlo方法的自适应多模型诊断

多模型混合系统的模型切换服从有限状态的Markov链,其转移概率通常假定是已知的.当模型转移概率未知的时候,本文基于Monte Carlo粒子滤波器给出了混合系统状态估计的一种自适应算法.该算法假定未知的转移概率先验分布为Dirichlet分布,首先通过采样得到一组模型序列的随机样本,利用其中状态的转移次数计算先验转移概率,使用量测信息对样本更新选择后,获得模型转移概率的一种迭代的后验估计值,同时由粒子滤波器得到系统状态和模型概率的后验估计.将该方法用于混合系统的状态监测和故障诊断,仿真结果表明了算法的有效性.     

JLU-RLAO和JLU-QLAO:两个不确定智能规划求解系统

不确定环境下的智能规划问题往往假设世界状态的转移概率是确切可知的,然而规划建模专家有时只能在信息不完备的条件下进行建模.从而只能通过猜测或者不完全统计的方法来获取不完备的有关状态转移不确定性的定量信息,有时甚至只能荻取相关的定性信息.在2004年概率规划比赛冠军LAO系统的基础上设计了JLU-RLAO系统和JLU-QLAO系统.它们可以在无法获得精确的状态转移概率条件下,依然保证规划求解的健壮性.实验结果表明,JLU-RLAO系统和JLU-QLA0系统可以快速高效地解决上述不确定智能规划问题.     

基于随机Petri网的可修系统可用性模糊评价

结合模糊集理论和随机Petri网理论提出了一种可修系统可用性建模与分析的新方法——模糊随机Petri网方法。随机Petri网的状态可达图同构于连续时间马尔可夫链，由可达图可得到系统的稳定状态概率方程组。利用模糊代数理论解该模糊方程组即可得到系统转移概率和各种性能指标的模糊数，通过解模糊可得到系统的可用性指标值。文章进行了实例分析并与已有文献作比较，举例进行分析求解，结果表明该方法是可行的。     

转移概率未知下具有双Markov 链的网络控制系统控制器设计

研究一类基于Markov模型的网络控制系统的稳定性和镇定控制器设计问题.针对网络控制系统中受控对象模型的随机切换和通信过程中的丢包问题,利用具有两个独立Markov链的离散时间Markov跳跃系统进行建模.在该Markov跳跃系统模态转移概率矩阵部分元素未知的情况下,充分考虑转移概率的约束条件,给出系统可镇定的充要条件和状态反馈控制器的设计方法.最后通过仿真示例验证了所提出方法的有效性.     

基于概率模型的动态分层强化学习

为解决大规模强化学习中的＂维度灾难＂问题,克服以往学习算法的性能高度依赖于先验知识的局限性,本文提出一种基于概率模型的动态分层强化学习方法.首先基于贝叶斯学习对状态转移概率进行建模,建立基于概率参数的关键状态识别方法,进而通过聚类动态生成若干状态子空间和学习分层结构下的最优策略.仿真结果表明该算法能显著提高复杂环境下智能体的学习效率,适用于未知环境中的大规模学习.     

非线性非齐次Markov跳变系统的贝叶斯滤波

针对具有时变不确定转移概率的非线性非齐次Markov跳变系统, 提出一种贝叶斯状态估计方法.该方法首次采用带约束高斯概率密度函数来刻画转移概率的真实特性. 然后,基于参考概率空间法, 将实际的概率测度投影到理想概率空间, 得出信息变量的递归表达式. 同时, 在贝叶斯框架内给出转移概率矩阵的最大后验估计式. 进一步, 采用粒子逼近法求解转移概率矩阵的最大后验估计, 解决非线性函数的多重积分问题, 进而获取状态估计值. 最后, 通过一个仿真示例表明该方法的有效性.     

基于切换频度的马尔科夫网络控制系统均方指数镇定

针对一类马尔科夫网络控制系统(Networked control system, NCS),研究了其均方指数镇定问题. 首先将网络控制系统建模为离散时间切换系统,子系统间的切换过程由一个转移概率矩阵已知的马尔科夫链描述, 并给出了子系统间切换频度的范围;进而基于随机过程理论和切换系统稳定性理论, 利用状态反馈实现了网络控制系统均方指数镇定,状态反馈控制律可通过求解一组线性矩阵不等式获得. 最后通过数值仿真例子验证了本文方法的有效性.     

以语音出现时频相关性为基础的语音掩模估计

在二维的时频域网格结构中,相邻点上语音信号的存在与否是相关的,传统的马尔可夫链不能对二维的时频相关性进行自适应的建模.基于语音信号在时频域中的相关性,提出了一种利用二维的相关模型估计语音掩模的方法.该方法将时频域中带噪语音信号的对数功率谱划分为语音和非语音类,利用时域中的状态转移概率和前向因子描述语音信号的时域相关性,同时利用频域中的状态转移概率和邻域因子描述语音信号的频域相关性.通过全局的统计最优化,该模型将时域相关性和频域相关性相结合.给出了该模型的序贯化更新方法,逐帧更新模型并估计语音出现概率.在当前已知对数功率谱和模型参数的条件下,通过最大化后验概率得到的语音信号状态矩阵可以作为语音掩模的最优估计.将该方法与几种现有的语音掩模在线估计方法进行比较,实验结果显示出了该方法的优越性.     

一类离散Markov跳变奇异系统的镇定控制

针对一类离散的Markov跳变奇异系统,研究了其稳定性与镇定控制问题.系统模式跳变的转移概率是部分未知的,包含转移概率完全已知和完全未知两种情形,具有更好的泛化性.以严格线性矩阵不等式的形式,给出了保证该类Markov跳变奇异系统正则、因果、随机稳定的充分性判据,并设计了相应的状态反馈与输出反馈控制器.最后,通过数值仿真表明了所提出方法的有效性.     

卫星姿态的状态转移控制

本文面向卫星的应用需求,对卫星姿态的运动学和动力学进行了分析与建模.利用反馈线性化,将姿态运动的高阶非线性项包含在姿态控制中,通过局部动态线性化,将动力学系统近似为定常系统.通过幂级数法对系统进行了状态转移过程的求解.采用模型预测的方法获得姿态角和姿态角速度的预期偏差.通过广义逆变换构造关于偏差的最小范数、最小二乘控制器.提出了一种基于状态转移的卫星姿态机动、跟踪与稳定控制的新方法.控制器的参数具有根据系统采样周期和当前状态时变自适应的特点.考虑帆板挠性及多种偏差和噪声影响,仿真验证了方法的可行性和有效性.     

Only connect: teaching, technology and telesis

Abstract This paper describes an approach to the design of interactive multimedia materials being developed in a European Community project. The developmental process is seen as a dialogue between technologists and teachers. This dialogue is often problematic because of the differences in training, experience and culture between them. Conditions needed for fruitful dialogue are described and the generic model for learning design used in the project is explained.     

European Community policy and the market

Abstract This paper starts with some reflections on the policy considerations and priorities which are shaping European Commission (EC) research programmes. Then it attempts to position the current projects which seek to capitalise on information and communications technologies for learning in relation to these priorities and the apparent realities of the marketplace. It concludes that while there are grounds to be optimistic about the contribution EC programmes can make to the efficiency and standard of education and training, they are still too technology driven.     

一种自适应子融合集成多分类器方法

融合集成方法已经广泛应用在模式识别领域,然而一些基分类器实时性能稳定性较差,导致多分类器融合性能差,针对上述问题本文提出了一种新的基于多分类器的子融合集成分类器系统。该方法考虑在度量层融合层次之上通过对各类基多分类器进行动态选择,票数最多的类别作为融合系统中对特征向量识别的类别,构成一种新的自适应子融合集成分类器方法。实验表明,该方法比传统的分类器以及分类融合方法识别准确率明显更高,具有更好的鲁棒性。     

煤矿井下安全监控分站的设计及其仿真实现

为了设计一种具有低成本、低功耗、易操作、功能强且可靠性高的煤矿井下安全分站,针对煤矿安全生产实际,文章提出了采用MCS-51系列单片机为核心、具有CAN总线通信接口的煤矿井下安全监控分站的设计方案;首先给出煤矿井下安全监控分站的整体构架设计,然后着重阐述模拟量输入信号处理系统的设计过程,最后说明单片机最小系统及其键盘、显示、报警、通信等各个组成部分的设计;为验证设计方案的可行性与有效性,使用Proteus软件对设计内容进行仿真验证,设计的煤矿井下安全监控分站具有瓦斯、温度等模拟量参数超标报警功能和电机开停、风门开闭等开关量指示功能;仿真结果表明:设计的煤矿井下安全监控分站具有一定的实际应用价值.     

Avoiding semantic and temporal gaps in developing software intensive systems

Development of software intensive systems (systems) in practice involves a series of self-contained phases for the lifecycle of a system. Semantic and temporal gaps, which occur among phases and among developer disciplines within and across phases, hinder the ongoing development of a system because of the interdependencies among phases and among disciplines. Such gaps are magnified among systems that are developed at different times by different development teams, which may limit reuse of artifacts of systems development and interoperability among the systems. This article discusses such gaps and a systems development process for avoiding them.     

Designing economic np control charts: A programmed simulation approach

This paper presents control charts models and the necessary simulation software for the location of economic values of the control parameters. The simulation program is written in FORTRAN, requires only 10K of main storage, and can run on most mini and micro computers. Two models are presented - one describes the process when it is operating at full capacity and the other when the process is operating under capacity. The models allow the product quality to deteriorate to a further level before an existing out-of-control state is detected, and they can also be used in situations where no prior knowledge exists of the out-of-control causes and the resulting proportion defectives.     

The development of robot art

Going through a few examples of robot artists who are recognized worldwide, we try to analyze the deepest meaning of what is called “robot art” and the related art field definition. We also try to highlight its well-marked borders, such as kinetic sculptures, kinetic art, cyber art, and cyberpunk. A brief excursion into the importance of the context, the message, and its semiotics is also provided, case by case, together with a few hints on the history of this discipline in the light of an artistic perspective. Therefore, the aim of this article is to try to summarize the main characteristics that might classify robot art as a unique and innovative discipline, and to track down some of the principles by which a robotic artifact can or cannot be considered an art piece in terms of social, cultural, and strictly artistic interest. This work was presented in part at the 13th International Symposium on Artificial Life and Robotics, Oita, Japan, January 31–February 2, 2008     

Explanation and prediction: an architecture for default and abductive reasoning

Although there are many arguments that logic is an appropriate tool for artificial intelligence, there has been a perceived problem with the monotonicity of classical logic. This paper elaborates on the idea that reasoning should be viewed as theory formation where logic tells us the consequences of our assumptions. The two activities of predicting what is expected to be true and explaining observations are considered in a simple theory formation framework. Properties of each activity are discussed, along with a number of proposals as to what should be predicted or accepted as reasonable explanations. An architecture is proposed to combine explanation and prediction into one coherent framework. Algorithms used to implement the system as well as examples from a running implementation are given.     

View-based model-driven architecture for enhancing maintainability of data access services

In modern service-oriented architectures, database access is done by a special type of services, the so-called data access services (DAS). Though, particularly in data-intensive applications, using and developing DAS are very common today, the link between the DAS and their implementation, e.g. a layer of data access objects (DAOs) encapsulating the database queries, still is not sufficiently elaborated, yet. As a result, as the number of DAS grows, finding the desired DAS for reuse and/or associated documentation can become an impossible task. In this paper we focus on bridging this gap between the DAS and their implementation by presenting a view-based, model-driven data access architecture (VMDA) managing models of the DAS, DAOs and database queries in a queryable manner. Our models support tailored views of different stakeholders and are scalable with all types of DAS implementations. In this paper we show that our view-based and model driven architecture approach can enhance software development productivity and maintainability by improving DAS documentation. Moreover, our VMDA opens a wide range of applications such as evaluating DAS usage for DAS performance optimization. Furthermore, we provide tool support and illustrate the applicability of our VMDA in a large-scale case study. Finally, we quantitatively prove that our approach performs with acceptable response times.     

A pragmatic multi-method investigation of discrepant technological events: Coping,attributions, and ‘accidental’ learning

Discrepant technological events or situations that entail a problem, a misunderstanding or a difficulty with the Information Technology (IT) being employed, are common in the workplace, and can lead to frustration and avoidance behaviors. Little is known, however, about how individuals cope with these events. This paper examines these events by using a multi-method pragmatic approach informed by coping theory. The results of two studies – a critical incident study and an experiment – serve to build and test, respectively, a theoretical model that posits that individuals use a variety of strategies when dealing with these events: they experience negative emotions, make external attributions, and adopt engagement coping strategies directed at solving the event, eventually switching to a disengagement coping strategy when they feel they have no control over the situation. Furthermore, users’ efforts may result in ‘accidental’ learning as they try to overcome the discrepant IT events through engagement coping. The paper ends with a discussion of the results in light of existing literature, future opportunities for research, and implications for practice.