全球气候变化对我国水资源的影响及对策研究

全球气候变化对我国的水资源造成了多方面的影响,加剧了我国水资源问题的复杂性,如何应对气候变化对我国水资源的影响成为一个备受关注的问题.从水资源分布、水资源供应、洪涝灾害、水生态和环境4个方面分析了全球气候变化对我国水资源的影响.提出了应在无悔策略的指导思想下,运用科技、经济手段,加强水利基础设施的规划和建设,加快水利行业能力建设,建立现代化的水利管理体系,以提高我国水资源系统对气候变化的适应能力.     

气候变化对水资源的影响及适应性对策研究

气候变化是目前全球范围的重大环境问题之一,气候变化增加了极端天气事件发生的频率和强度．从而导致了水资源在时间空间上的重新分配和水资源数量及质量的改变,气候变化对水资源的影响,已引起了水资源管理者的重视。探究了当前的气候变化现象,并在此基础上阐述了气候变化对水资源的影响,针对气候变化的可能性．初步提出了减缓影响的适应性对策,为更好地管理水资源做出了建议。     

气候变化下淮河流域水资源适应性管理初探

气候变化与人类活动的不确定性因素阻碍了淮河流域水资源的有效管理,适应性管理是目前应对不确定问题的有效策略.本文针对气候变化现状,依据适应性管理内涵,在分析淮河流域水资源管理不确定性问题的基础上,提出了气候变化下水资源适应性管理机制,并对气候变化下淮河流域水资源管理提出适应性对策建议.     

气候变化对干旱内陆河流域水资源影响的研究进展

气候变化对水资源的影响是当前全球变化研究的热点和前沿问题之一。气候变化对干旱内陆河流域水资源影响的研究也越来越引起诸多学者的关注与重视。本文回顾了国内外气候变化对水资源影响研究现状与进展,总结了相关的研究方法,并从水文要素、气候变化与人类活动对水资源的定量评估、气候变化对极端水文事件的影响研究和应对气候变化的水资源适应性管理措施4个方面归纳了相关方面的研究成果。同时指出了气候变化对干旱内陆河流域水资源影响研究存在的问题,并展望了未来气候变化对干旱内陆河流域水资源影响研究的发展趋势。     

气候变化对水的影响研究及其科学问题

全球变暖是目前最重要的环境问题之一，基于目前的相关研究成果，本文简要介绍了国际上较为常用的全球气候变化情景及我国未来的气候变化情势，着重论述了我国水资源系统对气候变化的敏感性以及未来气候变化情势下我国的水资源情势。最后，针对目前评价结果中存在的问题及薄弱环节，提出了在下一步气候变化对水影响研究中需要重点解决的科学问题。     

水资源管理模型中的气候变化不确定性模拟

气候变化对水文设计和水系统管理的影响是未来水文学家和水资源管理者将面临的重大挑战之一。当前许多水资源管理者所依赖的是历史水文数据与自适应性实时调度,但没有考虑气候变化对水文系统及调度规则的影响。以往的研究包括了不同气候变化情景下水资源系统的风险性、可靠性和稳定性之类的问题,但从未涉及水资源管理决策者在气候变化对管理影响方面的偏好问题。探讨了气候变化对水资源的影响及模糊集理论在水系统气候变化敏感性管理方面的适用性。此外,还例证了方法的适用性,即运用模糊集理论描述决策者在接受或排斥气候变化影响的程度及方向时的倾向性。     

全球气候变化对区域水资源影响研究进展综述

气候变化已成为当今科学界、各国政府和社会公众普遍关注的环境问题之一,气候变化可能对生态系统和社会经济产生灾难性的影响。研究全球气候变化对水资源的影响显得非常迫切。本文介绍了国内外有关全球气候变化对水资源影响研究的现状与进展,重点介绍了国内和疆内在这方面的研究进展,为气候变化对区域水资源的影响研究提供借鉴。     

中国东部季风区水资源脆弱性评价

以中国东部季风区的八大流域为例,从水资源供需安全的角度,对2000年水资源状况和未来气候变化情景下的水资源脆弱性进行了评价。结果表明:海河流域是中国水资源的严重脆弱区,黄河和淮河均处于高度脆弱状态,辽河流域、松花江流域、长江流域、东南诸河和珠江流域绝大部分地区处于中度脆弱状态;未来气候变化使得中国东部季风区八大流域的水资源脆弱性均明显加重,黄淮海流域均上升到严重脆弱状态,对气候变化极度敏感,必须采取相应措施来积极应对气候变化对流域水资源的不利影响。     

气候变化对水资源系统的影响

全球气候变化导致水循环系统发生变化,引起了水资源在时间、空间分配上变更,以及数量的变化,对全球的生态系统和社会经济都产生了无法估量的影响,尤其水资源系统方面.文章基于大量文献资料,利用水文模拟技术分析了气候变化对我国水循环系统产生的影响,提出了降低气候变化对水资源系统不利影响的有效措施,以期在维护我国水资源系统生态平衡上发挥一定作用,避免引发不必要的自然灾害.     

携起手来 积极探索人与自然和谐共生的生态文明之路

气候变化是当今国际社会普遍关注的全球性问题。水资源是全球气候变化最直接和最重要的影响领域,全球气候变化将直接威胁到防洪、供水、粮食、生态和能源等与水相关的安全问题。2010年4月8日,由全球水伙伴中国委员会与瑞士发展与合作署(SDC)联合主办的全球气候变化与中国水安全高级圆桌会议在北京召开。会议旨在促进相关部门、行业及相关组织通力合作,采取一致行动,积极应对全球气候变化的挑战,保障中国的水安全。国务院相关部委、10多个国际组织的官员和专家以及科研院校、企事业单位和非政府组织的代表,共100多人集聚一堂。全国政协副主席张梅颖出席会议并致辞。水利部部长陈雷出席会议并作《积极应对全球气候变化,着力保障中国水安全》的主旨发言。会议共设4个主要议题:节能减排与气候变化,气候变化对中国水资源的影响,气候变化与防洪安全、饮水安全、粮食安全和生态安全,应对气候变化与水资源综合管理等。会上,众多专家围绕全球气候变化与中国水安全展开了热烈讨论,从科技应对、环境保护、经济社会发展等不同角度强调保障水安全必须正视气候变化的事实,尊重自然规律,增强水资源工作适应气候变化的能力,加强水资源系统应对气候变化的响应性,努力将气候变化带来的负面外部性降到最低程度。全国人大财经委员会副主任委员、全球水伙伴中国委员会主席汪恕诚在总结发言中表示会议取得了丰硕成果:明确了保障水安全是应对全球气候变化的重要领域;表达了加强合作与交流、促进应对气候变化保障中国水安全的强烈愿望;增进了理解和共识,促进了合作;增强了公众应对气候变化保障水安全的意识。本刊专题整编了部分领导、专家的观点,以飨读者。     

Basin Scale Water Resources Systems Modeling Under Cascading Uncertainties

Global change in climate and consequent large impacts on regional hydrologic systems have, in recent years, motivated significant research efforts in water resources modeling under climate change. In an integrated future hydrologic scenario, it is likely that water availability and demands will change significantly due to modifications in hydro-climatic variables such as rainfall, reservoir inflows, temperature, net radiation, wind speed and humidity. An integrated regional water resources management model should capture the likely impacts of climate change on water demands and water availability along with uncertainties associated with climate change impacts and with management goals and objectives under non-stationary conditions. Uncertainties in an integrated regional water resources management model, accumulating from various stages of decision making include climate model and scenario uncertainty in the hydro-climatic impact assessment, uncertainty due to conflicting interests of the water users and uncertainty due to inherent variability of the reservoir inflows. This paper presents an integrated regional water resources management modeling approach considering uncertainties at various stages of decision making by an integration of a hydro-climatic variable projection model, a water demand quantification model, a water quantity management model and a water quality control model. Modeling tools of canonical correlation analysis, stochastic dynamic programming and fuzzy optimization are used in an integrated framework, in the approach presented here. The proposed modeling approach is demonstrated with the case study of the Bhadra Reservoir system in Karnataka, India.     

气候变化条件下洪泽湖以上流域水资源演变趋势

基于IPCC对全球和中国的气候变化趋势,利用1990—2011年气象资料,采用增量情景设置方法,分析气候变化情景下洪泽湖以上流域水资源的演变趋势。结果表明:该流域水资源量对降雨变化有较强的敏感性,实际蒸散发对温度变化的敏感性较强。与基准期相比,在气温同等条件、降水增加情景下,流域水资源量呈增加趋势;在降水同等条件、气温升高情景下,流域的实际蒸发会增加,导致水资源量呈减少的趋势。径流年内分配受降水变化影响较大;随着降水增加,径流年内分配更集中,加大年内径流分配差异,可能加大流域湖泊调蓄压力。     

英国关于未来气候变化的报告

英国关于气候变化对水资源影响的研究报告指出，由于CO2排放量增加，未来80年内温度、降水、土壤温度等条件将发生变化。气候条件的变化使来水条件也将发生很大变化。我国也参与了气候变化的研究报告编制，但还没有形成系统、完整的研究气候变化对水资源影响趋势的成果。了解英国的报告结果，有助于我们重视气候变化对水资源影响的趋势。     

Responses of soil moisture to climate change based on projections by the end of the 21st century under the high emission scenario in the ‘Huang–Huai–Hai Plain’ region of China

Based on the future potential projections in the late 21st century under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario, the maximal responses of surface soil moisture (SSM) to an extreme climate change are exhibited in the ‘Huang–Huai–Hai Plain’ (‘3H’) region of China. The Common Land Model (CoLM) and the approach of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation related to parameters (CNOP-P) are employed to explore the above issue. Three climate change scenarios, associated with temperature change, precipitation change and changes in both temperature and precipitation, are provided by applying the CNOP-P approach and denoted as the CNOP-P-type temperature change scenario, the CNOP-P-type precipitation change scenario and the CNOP-P-type climate change scenario, respectively. For the CNOP-P-type scenarios, the changes in both climatology and climate variability relative to the reference climate condition are included. To explore the different responses of SSM to different types of climate scenarios, the hypothesized climate change scenarios are examined as well, in which only the change in climatology is considered. Numerical results have suggested that the CNOP-P-type scenario induces greater SSM responses in terms of variation magnitudes than the hypothesized climate change does, especially in the semi-arid regions north of 35°N. For the two types of climate change scenarios, the differences about precipitation and soil ice changes result in the difference about SSM changes in the northern region, though the difference about evapotranspiration variations helps to narrow the difference about SSM. The above results imply that climate variability is important to SSM in the semi-arid region.     

Estimation of future water resources of Xiangjiang River Basin with VIC model under multiple climate scenarios

Variation trends of water resources in the Xiangjiang River Basin over the coming decades have been investigated using the variable infiltration capacity(VIC) model and 14 general circulation models'(GCMs') projections under the representative concentration pathway(RCP4.5) scenario. Results show that the Xiangjiang River Basin will probably experience temperature rises during the period from 2021 to2050, with precipitation decrease in the 2020 s and increase in the 2030 s. The VIC model performs well for monthly discharge simulations with better performance for hydrometric stations on the main stream of the Xiangjiang River than for tributary catchments. The simulated annual discharges are significantly correlated to the recorded annual discharges for all the eight selected target stations. The Xiangjiang River Basin may experience water shortages induced by climate change. Annual water resources of the Xiangjiang River Basin over the period from 2021 to 2050 are projected to decrease by 2.76% on average within the range from-7.81% to 7.40%. It is essential to consider the potential impact of climate change on water resources in future planning for sustainable utilization of water resources.     

国内外关于气候变化对水的影响的研究进展

简要介绍了由WMO、UNESCO、UNDP和IAHS等一些国际组织发起并推动开展的气候变化国际合作研究计划和我国自20世纪90年代以来先后开展实施的国家科技攻关计划等重大气候变化研究项目的基本情况。综述了气候变化的事实、情景及其对水利的影响评价等方面的研究成果。最后,针对目前我国水利的实际情况,指出“十二五”期间应在8个方面进一步加强对气候变化的研究。     

气候变化对湖南城市水安全的影响

湖南省水资源丰富,但时空及地区分布不均。通过对湘、资、沅、澧四流域降水量和降雨强度及四水尾闾站最高、最低水位历史变化情况的分析,揭示了气候变化对湖南省水资源的影响,并在此基础上,结合城镇人口增长状况、城市化和新型工业化进程的推进,探讨气候变化对湖南省城市水安全的影响,最后针对湖南省城市水安全将越来越突出的问题提出了具体建议。     

Optimal water allocation at different levels of climate change to minimize water shortage in arid regions (Case Study: Zayandeh-Rud River Basin,Iran)

Climate change is one of the most important factors influencing the future of the world's environment. The most important impacts of climate change are changes in water supply and demand in different regions of the world. In this study, different climate change patterns in two RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios (RCP: Representative Concentration Pathway), were adopted for the Zayandeh-Rud River Basin, Iran, through weighting of GCMs (General Circulation Models). These climate change patterns are including ideal, medium, and critical patterns. Using the LARS-WG model (Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator), the outputs of the GCMs were downscaled statistically and the daily temperature and precipitation time series were generated from 2020 to 2044. Then, based on this information, the inflow volume into the Zayandeh-Rud Reservoir was predicted by the IHACRES model (Identification of unit Hydrograph and Component flows from Rainfall, Evaporation and Streamflow) and the agricultural water demand was also estimated based on future evapotranspiration. Finally, using GAMS (General Algebraic Modeling System) software, water resources in this basin were allocated based on the basic management scenario (B) and the water demand management scenario (D). The results showed that the average monthly temperature will increase by 0.6 to 1.3 °C under different climate change patterns. On the other hand, on the annual basis, precipitation will decrease by 6.5 to 31% and inflow volume to the Zayandeh-Rud Reservoir will decrease by 21 to 38%. The results also showed that the water shortages based on the baseline management scenario (B) will be between 334 and 805 MCM (Million Cubic Meters). These range of values varies between 252 and 787 MCM in the water demand management scenario (D). In general, the water shortage can be reduced in the Zayandeh-Rud River Basin with water demand control, but complete resolution of this problem in this region requires more integrated strategies based on a sustainable development, such as a fundamental change in the cropping pattern, prevention of population growth and industrial development.     

变化环境下“中华水塔”水资源及产流规律变化分析研究

受全球气候变暖的影响,“中华水塔”地区正面临着以“变暖变湿”为主的气候变化。受气候及下垫面条件的综合影响,区域水资源显著增加,各流域产流机理在空间上呈现出明显的地区差异特征。基于“中华水塔”区域1956—2020年水文气象资料,通过趋势、突变、距平等分析方法,分析其水文要素和产流规律的变化趋势、特征及相互之间影响关系。结果表明：近年来“中华水塔”区域气温显著升高,蒸发能力总体增强,区域进入丰水期,降水、径流显著增加,在同等降水径流尺度下,黄河源区产流能力有所降低,长江、澜沧江源区产流能力明显增强;气温升高、降水量持续偏丰以及流域前期影响雨量（蓄水量）增加、枯季径流比例提高、下垫面生态持水能力增强是引起区域产流规律变化、水资源量增加的主要原因。     

Integrated Reservoir Management System for Adaptation to Climate Change: The Nakdong River Basin in Korea

This study begins with the premise that current reservoir management systems do not take into account the potential effects of climate change on optimal performance. This study suggests an approach in which multi-purpose reservoirs can adapt to climate change using optimal rule curves developed by an integrated water resources management system. The system has three modules: the Weather Generator model, the Hydrological Model, and the Differential Evolution Optimization Model. Two general circulation models (GCMs) are selected as examples of both dry and wet conditions to generate future climate scenarios. This study is using the Nakdong River basin in Korea as a case study, where water supply is provided from the reservoir system. Three different climate change conditions (historic, wet and dry) are investigated through the compilation of six 60 years long scenarios. The optimal rule curves for three multi-purpose reservoirs in the basin are developed for each scenario. The results indicate that although the rule curve for large-size reservoir is less sensitive to climate change, medium or small-size reservoirs are very sensitive to those changes. We further conclude that the large reservoir should be used to release more water, while small or medium-size reservoirs should store inflow to mitigate severe drought damages in the basin.