气藏平均地层压力跟踪计算新方法

平均地层压力是产能评价和动态分析的基础，准确、快速获取平均地层压力对高效开发气藏意义重大。基于地层压力随时间变化的规律，分析了平均地层压力的变化规律。研究结果表明：平均地层压力等效点仅随时间发生改变，平均地层压力的下降速率等于或者近似等于井底流压的下降速率。从封闭弹性驱动气藏的物质平衡方程出发，考虑偏差系数和井底流压随平均地层压力的变化，推导建立了平均地层压力跟踪计算新方法，根据生产数据可迭代计算平均地层压力。方法验证结果显示，采气速度和采出程度共同影响模型的计算结果。应用实例表明，跟踪计算法与压力恢复试井和物质平衡法之间的相对误差均较小，满足工程计算精度要求，且跟踪计算法不需依托生产测试数据，节约了测试费用，避免了测试占产。     

工艺参数对动态流量控制法挤压弯管应力的影响

采用有限元模拟和实验研究了挤压钛合金弯曲管件。通过实验验证了工件的形状和尺寸精度,并通过有限元模拟分析了工艺参数对挤出过程中变形体的平均压应力分布情况和挤出弯管件的曲率半径的影响规律。结果表明:有限元模拟中,弯管件的曲率半径误差为6.03%,弯管直径误差为3.82%;在靠近定径带处,平均压应力呈非均匀分布;在焊合腔内,靠近细分流孔区域的平均压应力小于靠近粗分流孔区域的平均压应力,平均压应力的大小顺序在通过粗、细分流孔前后相反;在模具结构固定不变时,弯管件的曲率半径随挤压速度的减小而增大,不随挤压温度的变化而变化。     

Deterministic and probabilistic ship pitch prediction using a multi-predictor integration model based on hybrid data preprocessing,reinforcement learning and improved QRNN

The deterministic and probabilistic prediction of ship motion is important for safe navigation and stable real-time operational control of ships at sea. However, the volatility and randomness of ship motion, the non-adaptive nature of single predictors and the poor coverage of quantile regression pose serious challenges to uncertainty prediction, making research in this field limited. In this paper, a multi-predictor integration model based on hybrid data preprocessing, reinforcement learning and improved quantile regression neural network (QRNN) is proposed to explore the deterministic and probabilistic prediction of ship pitch motion. To validate the performance of the proposed multi-predictor integrated prediction model, an experimental study is conducted with three sets of actual ship longitudinal motions during sea trials in the South China Sea. The experimental results indicate that the root mean square errors (RMSEs) of the proposed model of deterministic prediction are 0.0254°, 0.0359°, and 0.0188°, respectively. Taking series #2 as an example, the prediction interval coverage probabilities (PICPs) of the proposed model of probability predictions at 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence levels (CLs) are 0.9400, 0.9800, and 1.0000, respectively. This study signifies that the proposed model can provide trusted deterministic predictions and can effectively quantify the uncertainty of ship pitch motion, which has the potential to provide practical support for ship early warning systems.     

基于平均飞行航迹的CCO减噪效用研究

近年来，通过优化飞行程序降低机场飞机噪声影响成为机场环境保护的重要研究方向。文章首先建立了基于飞机“噪声-功率-距离”数据的噪声计算模型，介绍了平均飞行航迹以及连续爬升运行(Continuous Climb Opera-tion, CCO)离场程序的相关理论，最后以大型国际机场为实例，使用飞机平均飞行航迹进行噪声预测，运用综合噪声模型计算出噪声影响面积并绘制噪声影响等值线图，比较了CCO离场相对常规的标准仪表离场(Standard Instru-ment Departure, SID)的降噪效果。结果表明，CCO离场程序可有效降低机场噪声影响，在高噪声级影响区域的降噪效果更佳。     

广义正交码索引调制系统的性能分析

摘 要：为了提高码索引调制（code index modulation，CIM）系统的传输效率，提出了一种具有更低复杂度的单输入单输出（single input single output，SISO）的广义正交码索引调制（generalized orthogonal code index modulation，GQCIM）系统。CIM 系统使用扩频码和星座符号传输信息，但只能激活两个扩频码索引和一个调制符号。而 GQCIM 系统以一种新颖的方式克服了只激活一个调制符号的限制，同时充分利用了调制符号的正交性，增加扩频码索引以传输更多的额外信息位，提高了系统的传输效率。此外，分析了GQCIM系统的理论性能，推导了误码率性能的上界。通过蒙特卡罗仿真验证了GQCIM系统的性能，对比发现GQCIM系统的理论和仿真性能一致。而且在相同的传输效率下，结果显示GQCIM系统的性能优于同样具有正交性的调制系统，如广义码索引调制（generalized code index modulation，GCIM）系统、CIM系统、码索引调制-正交空间调制（code index modulation aided quadrature spatial modulation，CIM-QSM）系统、码索引调制-正交空间调制（code index modulation aided spatial modulation，CIM-SM）系统、脉冲索引调制（pulse index modulation，PIM）系统。     

A hybrid homogeneously weighted moving average control chart for process monitoring: Discussion

The sensitivity of a monitoring scheme depends on many factors including the variance of the charting statistic which is very important in the computation of the control limits. This paper discusses the computation of the variance of the recently proposed hybrid homogeneously weighted moving average (HHWMA) $\overline{X}$ scheme which was based on an incorrect assumption. The correct variance is used to evaluate the run-length characteristics of the HHWMA $\overline{X}$ scheme. It is observed that the incorrect variance has a significant impact on the sensitivity (or performance) of the HHWMA $\overline{X}$ scheme.     

Vibration analysis and identification of breathing cracks in beams subjected to single or multiple moving mass using online sequential extreme learning machine

In this paper, a novel approach was presented to vibration analysis and identification of breathing cracks in Timoshenko beam under single or multiple moving mass. Dynamic strain energies (DSEs) and translational accelerations in beam structures under moving mass were used as forward problem and application of an emergent learning algorithm called the online sequential extreme learning machine algorithm as inverse problem to predict crack depths and locations. To demonstrate the potential of the proposed vibration analysis over existing ones, two validation studies have been done. To evaluate the proposed method to identify breathing cracks, two examples, namely, clamped–clamped beam and two span continuous beams have been studied. Also, the effect of the discrepancy in stiffness between the finite-element model and the actual tested dynamic system has been investigated. Another examination has been performed in which moving mass with different speeds are utilized. Also, the effect of multi mass passing through the beam has been studied. The obtained results indicated that the proposed method could identify the breathing cracks existence and severity in the beam under moving mass using DSE and accelerations, which may be noisy or noise free.     

基于时空的弱点状运动目标检测技术

如何在复杂背景下持续有效地检测目标位置,一直是研究者们需要面对的主要挑战。本文在研究红外点状移动目标特征的基础上,根据目标无纹理,无形状的特性,提出一种改进的形态学目标增强算法,并利用目标连续时空不变性检测目标。首先,建立多尺度的图像金字塔,在每层上采用改进的形态学算法快速、粗糙定位小目标。然后进一步的根据目标在时空上的位置相关性,提出基于目标运动特征分析的精确检测方法。得到精确稳定的检测结果。最后实验结果表明与经典的形态学检测算法及其他算法相比,该技术能更有效地检测弱小目标,具有更高的鲁棒性。     

基于自回归谱外推的全聚焦成像分辨力提升

针对相邻缺陷全聚焦超声成像混叠问题，结合低阶、宽有效频带自回归谱外推方法，压缩超声波时域脉冲宽度，实现亚波长级全聚焦（Total focusing method，TFM）成像分辨力。建立碳钢试块模型，设置两个中心间距1.8 mm，直径1.3 mm圆孔，选用中心频率2.25 MHz，32阵元相控阵探头采集全矩阵数据。针对全矩阵数据，选择自回归阶数为2，信号频谱最大幅值下降14 dB为有效频带，建立自回归模型并外推有效频带外的高频与低频成分，随后对全矩阵数据进行延迟叠加处理和TFM成像。仿真结果表明，低阶、宽有效频带自回归谱外推处理方法具有较高的鲁棒性和准确性，TFM成像后可有效分离中心间距0.7λ（λ为超声波长）圆孔，保留缺陷横向位置信息的同时，定位误差不超过0.73%。对碳钢试块中相同位置及尺寸的圆孔进行试验验证，定位误差不超过1.06%，有效地提高TFM成像分辨力。     

分级加载电压下考虑有效电势变化的软黏土电渗固结理论

分级加载电压技术能够有效延长电渗处理的时间,改善地基的处理效果并能有效降低能耗。在利用分级加载电压技术开展电渗试验时,随着土体的排水固结,土体各点的电势会发生明显的变化,这与现有的电渗固结理论假设土体各点电势保持不变有所差异。利用自主设计的电渗试验仪器开展了分级加载电压下的电渗室内试验,分析了电渗过程中土体有效电势变化的规律。基于该规律并结合Esrig固结理论建立了在阳极处不排水、阴极处排水条件下考虑土体有效电势变化的电渗固结理论,得到了分级加载电压条件下考虑土体有效电势变化的超静孔隙水压力和平均固结度的解析表达式。研究表明,在电压分级加载过程中,土体有效电势变化规律表现为随时间先基本保持不变,后呈抛物线状先增后减。通过试验案例验证了考虑土体有效电势变化所求得解析解的合理性,且该数值计算结果相较于Esrig数值计算结果,前者更加接近实测值,该固结方程的建立为后续分级加载电压技术的推广应用提供了理论依据,也为实际工程提供了参考。