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The deterministic and probabilistic prediction of ship motion is important for safe navigation and stable real-time operational control of ships at sea. However, the volatility and randomness of ship motion, the non-adaptive nature of single predictors and the poor coverage of quantile regression pose serious challenges to uncertainty prediction, making research in this field limited. In this paper, a multi-predictor integration model based on hybrid data preprocessing, reinforcement learning and improved quantile regression neural network (QRNN) is proposed to explore the deterministic and probabilistic prediction of ship pitch motion. To validate the performance of the proposed multi-predictor integrated prediction model, an experimental study is conducted with three sets of actual ship longitudinal motions during sea trials in the South China Sea. The experimental results indicate that the root mean square errors (RMSEs) of the proposed model of deterministic prediction are 0.0254°, 0.0359°, and 0.0188°, respectively. Taking series #2 as an example, the prediction interval coverage probabilities (PICPs) of the proposed model of probability predictions at 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence levels (CLs) are 0.9400, 0.9800, and 1.0000, respectively. This study signifies that the proposed model can provide trusted deterministic predictions and can effectively quantify the uncertainty of ship pitch motion, which has the potential to provide practical support for ship early warning systems. 相似文献
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Ruifang Liu Jian Hou Huifang Li Ping Xu Zhengbin Zhang Xueyong Zhang 《International journal of molecular sciences》2021,22(7)
Tillering is a crucial agronomic trait of wheat; it determines yield and plant architecture. Strigolactones (SLs) have been reported to inhibit plant branching. D14, a receptor of SLs, has been described to affect tillering in rice, yet it has seldomly been studied in wheat. In this study, three TaD14 homoeologous genes, TaD14-4A, TaD14-4B, and TaD14-4D, were identified. TaD14-4A, TaD14-4B, and TaD14-4D were constitutively expressed, and TaD14-4D had a higher expression level in most tissues. TaD14 proteins were localized in both cytoplasm and nucleus. An SNP and a 22 bp insertion/deletion (Indel) at the exon regions of TaD14-4D were detected, forming three haplotypes, namely 4D-HapI, 4D-HapII, and 4D-HapIII. Due to the frameshift mutation in the coding region of 4D-HapII, the interaction of 4D-HapII with TaMAX2 and TaD53 was blocked, which led to the blocking of SL signal transduction. Based on the two variation sites, two molecular markers, namely dCAPS-250 and Indel-747, were developed. Association analysis suggested that haplotypes of TaD14-4D were associated with effective tillering number (ETN) and thousand kernel weight (TKW) simultaneously in four environments. The favorable haplotype 4D-HapIII underwent positive selection in global wheat breeding. This study provides insights into understanding the function of natural variations of TaD14-4D and develops two useful molecular markers for wheat breeding. 相似文献
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将幸福河概念与长江三角洲区域一体化发展战略相结合,基于自然、人类社会、人水关系3个系统构建了包含24个指标的长三角幸福河层次评价指标体系;引入需求层次理论,以基础Ⅰ层次、基础Ⅱ层次、提升Ⅰ层次、提升Ⅱ层次、幸福层次5个层次作为幸福河的层次评价等级,运用熵权物元模型,建立了长三角幸福河层次评价模型,并对2018年长三角三省一市幸福河层次等级进行了评价。结果表明,三省一市均处于转化中的中间状态,其中江苏省向提升Ⅰ层次转化,浙江省、安徽省向提升Ⅱ层次转化,上海市向幸福层次转化,说明区域整体幸福河层次处于较高水平,但稳定性较差。 相似文献
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连续油管钻井机器人利用机身内外的钻井液压力差作为动力源,可在牵引连续油管的同时加载钻压。以钻井机器人为基础,建立连续油管钻柱动力学模型,并推导出通过钻井液排量控制钻压和钻速的单参数控制数学模型;对钻井机器人引入调速回路,建立具有调速功能的钻柱动力学模型;在溢流阀调定压力大于机身内外压差时,推导出利用钻井液排量和节流阀流通面积两种参数控制钻压、钻速的数学模型,在溢流阀调定压力小于机身内外压差时,推导出利用钻井液排量、节流阀流通面积和溢流阀调定压力3种参数控制钻压、钻速的数学模型;以11.43 cm(4.5英寸)井眼为例,对上述3种数学模型进行了分析。分析结果表明:钻压、钻速随钻井液排量的增加基本呈线性增加,在钻井液排量大于0.005 m3/s时,钻井机器人能够向前爬行,在钻井液排量大于0.005 7 m3/s时,钻头能够正常钻进;调节节流阀流通面积和溢流阀调定压力,可以在一定范围内无级调钻压和钻速;3种控制方法相结合,可以实现小排量、大钻压,及大排量、小钻压等钻井参数的控制。以控制模型为基础,针对不同井下工况建立钻进工艺的专家数据库,以钻井机器人为"大脑",结合井下随钻测量数据就能够实现闭环控制,自动钻进。 相似文献
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The current investigation describes a computational technique to solve one- and two-dimensional Fredholm integral equations of the second kind. The method estimates the solution using the discrete collocation method by combining locally supported radial basis functions (RBFs) constructed on a small set of nodes instead of all points over the analysed domain. In this work, we employ the Gauss–Legendre integration rule on the influence domains of shape functions to approximate the local integrals appearing in the method. In comparison with the globally supported RBFs for solving integral equations, the proposed method is stable and uses much less computer memory. The scheme does not require any cell structures, so it is meshless. We also obtain the error analysis of the proposed method and demonstrate that the convergence rate of the approach is high. Illustrative examples clearly show the reliability and efficiency of the new method. 相似文献
9.
Galin Ivanov Ertugrul Bilgucu Ivelina Ivanova Milena Dimitrova 《International Journal of Dairy Technology》2020,73(3):563-569
The present study aimed to investigate the effect of somatic cell count (SCC) of raw cow's milk on the volatile organic compound (VOC) profiles of yoghurt. Test yoghurt samples were produced from three batches of cow's milk with low, medium and high SCC, respectively. The VOCs were determined by gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC–MS) analysis. A lower diacetyl and acetoin content and a higher content of 2‐heptanone, and butanoic and hexanoic acids were established in the yoghurt samples from batches with high SCC of above 1 000 000 cells/cm3. The increased SCC of cow's milk had a negative effect on the volatile organic compound profiles of yoghurt. 相似文献
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