Uncertainty,belief, and probability1

We introduce a new probabilistic approach to dealing with uncertainty, based on the observation that probability theory does not require that every event be assigned a probability. For a nonmeasurable event (one to which we do not assign a probability), we can talk about only the inner measure and outer measure of the event. In addition to removing the requirement that every event be assigned a probability, our approach circumvents other criticisms of probability-based approaches to uncertainty. For example, the measure of belief in an event turns out to be represented by an interval (defined by the inner and outer measures), rather than by a single number. Further, this approach allows us to assign a belief (inner measure) to an event E without committing to a belief about its negation -E (since the inner measure of an event plus the inner measure of its negation is not necessarily one). Interestingly enough, inner measures induced by probability measures turn out to correspond in a precise sense to Dempster-Shafer belief functions. Hence, in addition to providing promising new conceptual tools for dealing with uncertainty, our approach shows that a key part of the important Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence is firmly rooted in classical probability theory. Cet article présente une nouvelle approche probabiliste en ce qui concerne le traitement de l'incertitude; celle-ci est basée sur l'observation que la théorie des probabilityés n'exige pas qu'une probabilityé soit assignée à chaque événement. Dans le cas d'un événement non mesurable (un événement pour lequel on n'assigne aucune probabilityé), nous ne pouvons discuter que de la mesure intérieure et de la mesure extérieure de l'évenément. En plus d'éliminer la nécessité d'assigner une probabilityéà l'événement, cette nouvelle approche apporte une réponse aux autres critiques des approches à l'incertitude basées sur des probabilityés. Par exemple, la mesure de croyance dans un événement est représentée par un intervalle (défini par la mesure intérieure et extérieure) plutǒt que par un nombre unique. De plus, cette approche nous permet d'assigner une croyance (mesure intérieure) à un événement E sans se compromettre vers une croyance à propos de sa négation -E (puisque la mesure intérieure d'un événement et la mesure intérieure de sa négation ne sont pas nécessairement une seule et unique mesure). II est intéressant de noter que les mesures intérieures qui résultent des mesures de probabilityé correspondent d'une manière précise aux fonctions de croyance de Dempster-Shafer. En plus de constituer un nouvel outil conceptuel prometteur dans le traitement de l'incertitude, cette approche démontre qu'une partie importante de la théorie de l'évidence de Dempster-Shafer est fermement ancrée dans la theorie classique des probabilityés.     

承钢棒材连轧线计算机控制系统

主要介绍了承钢棒材连轧线计算机控制系统，其中包括了系统的硬件配置，控制功能及控制说明。     

电缆气压保气率计算机统计系统

介绍了电缆气压保气率计算机统计系统开发的目的和意义，系统程序的流程和结构，以及系统程序的编制和应用。     

Adaptive control of siso plants with unmodelled dynamics

In this paper we pursue a twofold aim. First we want to simplify the complexity of the classical Monopoli's scheme, the so-called ‘Augmented error signal control scheme’. Then we also wish to cope with the realistic situation in which the presence of unmodelled dynamics has to be taken into account. This latter problem has been faced in the literature by suitably modifying the adaptation mechanism in order to avoid undesired phenomena as well as to obtain an attractive stability region for the state trajectories starting from any point in a predefined initial condition set. In our case the necessity of introducing any sort of modification in the adaptation mechanism is completely avoided, but we still obtain asymptotic stability of the output error signal.     

ETR Ⅱ-30调速器液压控制系统

ETRⅠ-30调速器是瑞士爱舍维斯工厂生产的具有PID调节规律的电液调速器。本文对其液压控制系统作了较详细的介绍,供有关人员参考。     

Analysis of brushless three-phase synchronous generator without exciter

Recently, a demand for small-capacity generators has been increasing as electric sources in small ships and automobiles or as portable electric sources driven by engines. It is desired that the structure of small-capacity generators be simple and robust, and that the generators be highly reliable, easily maintained and controlled. This paper describes an analysis of the original brushless synchronous generator without exciter. The output voltage can be adjusted in the wide range by controlling the stator dc current. To analyze the characteristics of this generator, the finite element method is applied. It is found that the results of theoretical analysis agree well with the experimental results.     

Stabilization of inter-area and/or oscillatory modes in large-scale power system by voltage impedance power system (VIPS) apparatus based on decentralized control scheme

New technologies such as power electronics have made it possible to change continuously the impedance of a power system not only to control power flow but also to enhance stability. A power system incorporating a variable impedance apparatus such as a variable series capacitor (VSrC) and high-speed phase shifter (HSPS) is called VIPS (Variable Impedance Power System) by the authors. This paper proposes a novel control method of VIPS apparatus such as VSrC and HSPS installed at an interconnecting point for stabilizing inter-area unstable and/or oscillatory modes. The proposed design method of the control system is a kind of hierarchical decentralized control method of a large-scale power system based on a Lyapunov function. Under the proposed control scheme, each subsystem can be stabilized independently by local controllers such as AVR, speed governor and PSS, and then the whole interconnected system can be stabilized by VIPS apparatus taking into account interactions between subsystems. The effectiveness and robustness of the VIPS apparatus control are shown by numerical examples with model systems including a large-scale power system.     

Some factors affecting the electrical properties of carbon-black-loaded butyl rubber during vulcanization

Butyl rubber mixtures loaded with 70 phr general purpose furnace black (GPF) and tetramethyl thiuram disulphide (TMTD)/S as vulcanizing system were prepared. The kinetics of their electrical conductivity development during the vulcanization process were followed by using an especially devised system. It was found that the increase in the electrical conductivity during vulcanization obeys an exponential growth function with time constant τ, which markedly decreases with increasing vulcanization temperature as well as with the efficiency of the vulcanizing system. After completion of the vulcanization process, about 80 min, the samples obtained possess reasonable stability and reproducibility of electrical conductivity.     

Issues in nonlinear stochastic grey box identification

Grey box identification refers to the practice of identifying dynamical systems in model structures exploiting partial prior information. This contribution reviews a method for stochastic grey box identification and surveys experiences and lessons of applying it to a number of industrial processes. Issues to be addressed include advantages and costs of introducing stochastics into the model, the question of what contribution must be expected from the model designer as opposed to what can be formalized in computer algorithms, and an outlook on future plans to resolve present shortcomings.