基于分形理论的黄河内蒙古段河势演变特征及其与凌汛灾害关联研究

寒区河道凌汛灾害河势“弯道效应”的量化评估十分重要。基于分形理论提出河道横断面-纵剖面-平面多维度河势分形维数计算方法及其物理机制，并探讨黄河内蒙古段不同维度河势演变分形特征及其与凌汛灾害的关联关系。结果表明，黄河内蒙古段不同维度河势均具有多尺度自相似分形特征，且具有多年记忆周期的长程相关性；冰坝（严重性冰塞）发生频次与河道主槽弯曲分形维数呈正相关指数型函数关系，与河相系数、深泓点高程和河段平均底坡分形维数负相关，与水深-面积分形维数正相关，总体表明冰坝灾害更易发生于主槽偏移摆动大、蜿蜒曲折、河湾发育程度高的宽浅型弯曲河道，研究成果可为凌汛期冰塞冰坝灾害易发河段诊断及预测提供重要理论依据。     

基于VMD和BSA-KELM的高陡边坡位移预测模型研究

边坡位移的时间序列曲线存在复杂的非线性特性,传统的预测模型精度不足以满足预测要求。为此提出了基于变分模态分解的鸟群优化-核极限学习机的预测模型,并用于河北省某水泥厂的边坡位移预测。该方法首先采用VMD把边坡位移序列分解为一系列的有限带宽的子序列,再对各子序列分别采用相空间重构并用核极限学习机预测,采用鸟群算法优化相空间重构的嵌入维度和KELM中惩罚系数和核参数三个数值,以取得最优预测模型。最后将各个子序列预测值叠加,得到边坡位移的最终预测值。结果表明：和KELM、BSA-KELM、EEMD-BSA-KELM模型相比,基于VMD的BSA-KELM预测精度更高,为边坡位移的预测提供一种有效的方法。     

学生参与电气人才创新能力培养的探索

基于“以学生为本”的OBE教育理念，本文对电气人才创新能力培养进行了探索。整个过程将专业课程体系契合学业规划以明确学生学习目标；学生参与理论、实践教学和平台搭建，在夯实其理论知识的同时丰富教学资源；在创新考核中采用“螺旋递进式”的师生互动模式，全程培养学生自主的创新能力。多年实践探索表明学生在课程实践、学科竞赛、论文发表和申报专利等方面的创新能力得到显著提升。     

A hybrid homogeneously weighted moving average control chart for process monitoring: Discussion

The sensitivity of a monitoring scheme depends on many factors including the variance of the charting statistic which is very important in the computation of the control limits. This paper discusses the computation of the variance of the recently proposed hybrid homogeneously weighted moving average (HHWMA) $\overline{X}$ scheme which was based on an incorrect assumption. The correct variance is used to evaluate the run-length characteristics of the HHWMA $\overline{X}$ scheme. It is observed that the incorrect variance has a significant impact on the sensitivity (or performance) of the HHWMA $\overline{X}$ scheme.     

珠江口盆地珠一坳陷古近系高自然伽马砂岩形成机制及油气地质意义

运用放射性元素寻找油气是一种非常规油气勘探手段。近年来,在珠江口盆地珠一坳陷富烃凹陷周边古近系钻遇高自然伽马(GR)砂岩,其GR值(100~300 API)甚至大于同区泥岩的GR值(100~200 API)。为了弄清该特殊现象背后的地质意义,对珠江口盆地珠一坳陷古近系高自然伽马砂岩开展了铀(U)、钍(Th)、钾(K)等3种元素含量与GR值的相关趋势线分析,从井震特征、岩性特征及矿物成分特征等入手分析了砂岩GR值增高的主要原因及成因机制,探讨了放射性元素聚集的条件、运移通道、驱动力以及油气意义。结果表明:西江、惠州地区由U含量增高导致砂岩GR值偏高,恩平、番禺地区由K,Th含量增高导致砂岩GR值偏高;砂岩GR值增高有两大成因机制,一是地下流体带来的放射性元素离子U4+在氧化-还原面处富集后导致地层GR值偏高,这种特殊现象说明在具有连通基底大断裂旁的圈闭中,U4+的富集指示了曾经油气的存在,证实了研究区油气运移通道的有效性,对于油气藏的预测有着非常重要的指导性意义,二是地表流体带来的含放射性元素的矿物大量沉积后导致地层GR值偏高,含放射性元素矿物性质不稳定,可指示近源供给的存在,对于判断物源及沉积环境有着非常重要的意义。该研究成果为预测研究区油气成藏有利区带提供了依据。     

下扬子地区下志留统风暴沉积特征及风暴作用对泥页岩品质的影响

近年来在下扬子地区页岩气地质调查井所获取的地层岩心资料，揭示该地区下志留统风暴沉积较为发育。基于精细的岩心观察描述，详细分析了下扬子地区下志留统高家边组下段中上部风暴沉积的特征，并阐明了风暴作用对泥页岩的影响。研究表明：研究区风暴岩岩性偏细，以粉砂岩为主，石英含量较高，结构成熟度较低，具2种不同的粒度概率曲线；主要发育底部冲刷面、块状层理、平行层理、丘状交错层理、波纹交错层理、准同生变形构造等沉积构造；垂向上主要识别出4种风暴沉积序列，均具有从底到顶粒度变细的沉积特征，不同的沉积序列与风暴流能量的强弱有关。下扬子地区早志留世频繁的风暴活动与研究区的古地理背景和古气候条件具有内在联系。特大型风暴对浅海陆棚深水区的细粒泥质沉积物特征产生重要影响，包括降低有机质含量、减少单层厚度、破坏垂向连续性、改变原始沉积构造和侧向稳定性等，总体上降低了泥页岩的品质。因此，研究认为在页岩气的勘探和评价过程中应重视风暴因素对陆棚深水区原始泥质沉积物的影响。     

刮板输送机中板仿生耐磨优化试验研究

刮板输送机中板磨损失效已成为输送机运行故障的主要原因之一，为了提高中板耐磨性，基于蜣螂非光滑单元进行了仿生中板设计，以磨损量为响应值，进行了单因素和响应面法优化试验。根据响应面法试验结果得到的因素显著性影响顺序（从高至低）依次为：径向距离，深径比，直径，节距角。基于试验结果建立了磨损量与因素的回归预测模型，经试验对比发现，预测模型与真实试验的相对误差为3.2%。在特定工况（煤散料粒度为6~8 mm、载荷为20 N、刮板链速为0.65 m/s及试验时长为6 600 s）下，当深径比为1.41、直径为0.69 mm、节距角为6.55°和径向距离为4.66 mm时，磨损量最小，仿生中板的耐磨性提高了12.6%。分析其耐磨机理发现，与光滑板相比，仿生板的磨粒磨损及黏着磨损较轻。凹坑分布可破坏持续切削中板表面的煤粒运动状态。中板的仿生优化可为今后刮板输送机的设计提供一定参考。     

Event-triggered variable horizon Supervisory Predictive control of hybrid power plants

The supervision of a hybrid power plant, including solar panels, a gas microturbine and a storage unit operating under varying solar power profiles is considered. The Economic Supervisory Predictive controller assigns the power references to the controlled subsystems of the hybrid cell using a financial criterion. A prediction of the renewable sources power is embedded into the supervisor. Results deteriorate when the solar power is unsteady, owing to the inaccuracy of the predictions for a long-range horizon of 10 s. The receding horizon is switched between an upper and a lower value according to the amplitude of the solar power trend. Theoretical results show the relevance of horizon switching, according to a tradeoff between performance and prediction accuracy. Experimental results, obtained in a Hardware In the Loop (HIL) framework, show the relevance of the variable horizon approach. Power amplifiers allow us to simulate virtual components, such as a gas microturbine, and to blend their powers with that of real devices (storage unit, real solar panels). In this case, fuel savings, reaching 15%, obtained under unsteady operating conditions lead to a better overall performance of the hybrid cell. The overall savings obtained in the experiments amount to 12%.     

Assessment of the different sources of uncertainty in a SWAT model of the River Senne (Belgium)

Although rainfall input uncertainties are widely identified as being a key factor in hydrological models, the rainfall uncertainty is typically not included in the parameter identification and model output uncertainty analysis of complex distributed models such as SWAT and in maritime climate zones. This paper presents a methodology to assess the uncertainty of semi-distributed hydrological models by including, in addition to a list of model parameters, additional unknown factors in the calibration algorithm to account for the rainfall uncertainty (using multiplication factors for each separately identified rainfall event) and for the heteroscedastic nature of the errors of the stream flow. We used the Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis algorithm (DREAM_(zs)) to infer the parameter posterior distributions and the output uncertainties of a SWAT model of the River Senne (Belgium). Explicitly considering heteroscedasticity and rainfall uncertainty leads to more realistic parameter values, better representation of water balance components and prediction uncertainty intervals.     

Control of the particle microstructure during the synthesis of bulk-polymerized transparent methacrylate-acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene resin

A series of methacrylate-acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (MABS) resins was prepared using bulk polymerization. The polarity of the continuous phase and the compatibility of two phases were changed by adjusting the methyl methacrylate (MMA) content, choosing values that were close to styrene-butadiene rubber solubility value. The possibility of controlling the microstructure of the MABS resin by changing the polarity of the components and the compatibility of two phases was assessed. The dynamic mechanical analysis shows that the compatibility of two phases varies with the MMA content. The morphological analysis shows that increasing MMA contents results in a gradual decrease in the sub-inclusion structure with a network skeleton of rubber particles, and that all the particles become solid rubber when the MMA content reaches 75%. The sub-inclusion structure reappears but does not have a network skeleton when the MMA content is 90%. The impact strength and morphological analysis indicate that the solid rubber particles and the sub-inclusion structure with a network skeleton provide excellent toughness, while the sub-inclusion structure without a network skeleton does not. In contrast, the transmittance of the ABS resin first increased and then decreased with increasing MMA content.